market wanes higher

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market wanes higher

"market wanes higher" 

in the news market wanes higher? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader can see that there might be a  'supervolcano' waiting to erupt beneath a seemingly 'beautiful' market.... ==> We have been warning about this HERE in our VIP DIAMOND newsletter <==

A 'herd mentality' has driven up valuations, the portfolio manager warns.

Warning: A correction in the market is "inevitable" and there are three key factors that could spark chaos on Wall Street, according statistics. 

We liken this market to Yellowstone National Park's famous supervolcano, which many believe is close to eruption. Stocks continued to hit record highs on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting its 8th consecutive all-time high.

Even though [the market] looks beautiful—setting new highs, good momentum, and earnings have been coming in strong, [there are] things to worry about," as there is several pieces of news we much watch in the coming weeks. 

Aside from the rise of passive investing, which is creating a "herd mentality" among investors, he also believed that the earnings picture isn't telling the whole story.

"In the 18 months ending in June, we saw companies that had no earnings, they were losing money, outperform those that were making money," We can highlight many stocks' performances this year may not be reflective of their revenues.

But the biggest threat to the market rally, we think is the current valuation levels of stocks.

SENTIMENT TRADER went back to 1994 and researched team data that said [that if we look at cyclically adjusted P/E, one out of two times] the market was down in the next 12 months, and about one out of three times it was down more than 10 percent.


DOW JONES CHART :We have broken a record on dow too. We have not had a red day or sell off for about 2 week now. WOW...This is quite interesting and incredible. 

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SENTIMENT TRADER notes that when valuations have been this high, 10-year returns on the S&P 500 have been either in the single digits or negative 99 percent of the time.

It doesn't mean that we'll see a volcanic eruption in the immediate future, and these market peaks take a long time, but we're definitely in the latter stages of this market advance, We say we are going to see the inevitable correction, we just do not know when that will be. 

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Will the stock market continue to rally in 2017

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Will the stock market continue to rally in 2017

"Will the stock market continue to rally in 2017" 

in the news Will the stock market continue to rally in 2017? What this all about..... See below. 

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Well there are many people talking up the market, and then there are others who say a catastrophic event is on the way very soon. There is accumulating evidence that the economy is very much strengthening, and if this is the truth, that could be very good for the economy and stocks in 2017. 

Although we can have a very optimistic view. We must take into consideration TRUMP will be president next year, and no one is really sure what is in store for us. So there are a few simple warnings for investors.

If the bull market continues for the next few months, and does not take a pause. Then what you have on your hands is a market that is vulnerable. Meaning, the higher we go, the more chance we will have of some type of serious correction.  If we get higher interest rates, and we have a strong US dollar as well that would be something many investors will be afraid of, so we have to be careful here, to think the market will go skywards every week without some type of pause. 

Let’s be honest, since Donald trump Got in, the market shot up fast, and may be getting a little ahead of itself.  Think of a helium balloon, once the balloon is fresh with helium it will go up and up, but there will be a point as which the balloon will start to lose its strength, and then deflate and stop ascending. 

The equities in the US have been going higher since Donald Trump’s surprising victory. Some have been referring to this as the TRUMP RALLY, or the DONALD TRUMP rally. Maybe this is a coincidence because people are sick of the lies from the democrats and want change. Maybe Donald Trump getting in, could mean a cleansing out for the economy and stock market and that could be a good thing. Time will tell. 

You can now see that the S&P has broken the very solid resistance at 2175 and we have exploded UP very very violently. 

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What we have to remember is this current bull market could continue, and the reason is due to lower tax rates and a business environment that is much friendly, once Trump is actually in the white house office.

Smart money is already starting to shift to consumer staples and discretionary plays, as well as technology. It seems Donald trump is going to support these areas, and there could be huge growth potential in the next 4 years.  That would be an area some of the smart investors are looking right now as we head towards 2017.

With better economic growth and tax reforms that would mean small- and mid-cap stocks will benefit quite extensively, but if the US dollar was to keep rallying, that would only hurt larger multinationals. 

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confusion sets in

confusion sets in

confusion sets in this week as investor are getting nervous about a US default. Well who knows if that will happen, but If you look back you can see these morons on capitol hill always leave things to the last moment, and it will be no different this time.

Ever since [Larry] Summers dropped out, Yellen's name was what people were expecting—so the market likes the nomination, but it wasn't necessarily a surprise analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research. Also, the ongoing woes of Washington are taking attention away from Yellen's nomination.

I think in the shorter term, there appears to be a couple of obstacles that will prevent any real market conviction. Until the government reopens and the debt ceiling debate is settled, the market will be probably unable to develop any bullish momentum.

You can see this in the market, take a look at the DOW JONES that chart still looks pretty bad technically. It can't seem to keep its head above water at the moment.

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S and P In trouble.

We hinted a few days ago that the S&P could be forming a bearish flag. These patterns have about a 80% chance of playing out in technical analysis terms. This did in fact play out, and the market is now in serious trouble.

The bottom of the bearish flag broke today, and skidded down to the 1580 level. We have bounced a bit, however as you can see on the chart, things do not look too good for the S&P right now.

If the bears come out in droves, we could see 1550 come soon, and maybe even lower, but the target off that flag is about the 1550 - 1560 level. Time will tell.

S&P broke bearish flag

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Did you Heed our warning

Did you Heed our warning?

A few weeks back we were warning our subscribers that there was sell volume coming into the market. Our VIP MEMBERS HERE got plenty of warning.

The start of April we did see a short covering rally and the bulls got tricked back into the market, only to find, that days later the market really sold off hard and we are currently back down at the 1540 level.

We posted our update a few weeks ago and warning about how strong bonds was looking and the move up in the S&P could be a phony one. It seems that we were correct. For Proof You can see what we said a few weeks back  ==> THIS POST HERE

warning given to VIP members

Now we did not pick and warn members at the top, however it was close as we did notice that the S&P was lying and BONDS were not. Our VIP members got a more detailed warning.

Right now we think we are at a crucial time in the market. Its make or break time, and the bulls and bears are fighting out a long hard battle, but eventually one side will win.

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dow jones industrial average high - what next

dow jones industrial average high

The recent dow jones industrial average high  was interesting but what is next for the market leader. That is an interesting question. As you know sentment trader does like to watch the dow jones industrial average as this is the leader of the market, normally if you can analyse this chart correctly, you can get a gauge on what is coming next for the S&P and other US indicies, and also the global markets, as it does tend to be a leader for those sometimes.

Right now there have been some significant developments with the dow jones industrial average chart.

If you have a look at the dow jones industrial average below you can see that there is a pure line in the sand, at about the 5900 level. There is good support there the buyers keep coming in at, however we feel that the bears at the moment are not only having some fun, but winning the tug-o-war if you like.

The dow jones industrial average chart has been hitting lower highs since the start of March 2013 and that is another warning lower prices are on the cards soon. We will watch and wait.

dow jones industrial average

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Spx update - spx weekly update

spx weekly update

The market sold off into the weekend with talks about North Korea on the verge of war and the spillover from the Cyrus crisis.

Unemployment still remains a big problem and the market did not like that at all, and we still have a gloomy outlook. However when we take a look at the chart below, we can see the market even through the bashing, and bad news has remain pretty buoyant. Perhaps people are jumping to conclusions too soon, and we do not have a big reason to panic just yet.

It is clear the market is totally dislocated away from any bad news at the moment as a whole. There have been a few blips and blops along the way, however the market still has strength attached to its name.

spx weekly update

As you can see, we are still in a major bullish uptrend, and things are not looking too bad in the bigger picture. A few months back we even included the bull / bear ratio chart that convinced us we are still in a bull market. When you take a look at this chart you can see why.

This week was not good for the market, that is for sure. Further more it could even be the start of a much larger correction as we have been hinting. But for now the leader of the market the dow jones transportation average still remains above critical support and above the major averages.

It would be wise to monitor these support levels in the coming weeks, as a breach of these levels would not bode well for the markets.  But until that happens there is no real reason to throw hands up in the air and panic.


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Our Warning

A few weeks back we issued a warning to watch the USD here

If you read that post we said the USD is on a massive breakout run, and that did infact happen.

If you remember we did sound the alarm bells, and told traders to stay on the toes, as this was a warning sign for the markers.

Now since then look what happen here.....


To The USD

To The RUSSELL










To the S&P 500




It seemed we were spot on and hope traders were able to take note and profit.




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.

The Bullish Percent Index

The Bullish Percent Index & SPX chart

The Cypres News is still not playing well with the market, as you can see we have not really done much over the last week or so. Each time the market gets up to the highs, they are rejected.

spx chart

The bullish percent index, now has a lower high, and most the time that does not bode well for the market. The next week or so, are going to be very critical if the bulls if they want to regain their footing. So far they are losing the fighting battle. 

bullish percent index

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latest spx update - our latest spx update

There has been lots going on as of late, and the market did indeed need to take a break.

As you can see we topped out several days ago, and we are currently trading below the 1500 mark at or around the 1494 level.

we do have lower targets, however..........  levels, for VIP ELITE GROUP  only! - Join Here! 

spx update

The market breadth chart was in overbought territory as we have been saying a drop was due, and we are getting a nice one after reaching sentiment traders VIP levels. We are at the 65 level, and there is more room to run down, but we still remain in a bullish market. 

market breadth update

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spx update - the latest spx update

spx update

Our VIP MEMBERS are out of the market, with some nice gains, 90pts infact. Very nice indeedy.

The markets in the next several months are in for a nice WILD RIDE I think. This happens every time we get conditions like we are seeing, so its gunna be very lucrative to those who know what they are doing, I am sure.

This is no doubt the S&P chart right now is looking very healthy. See how we bottomed with the INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER and now we are travelling up in a nice upwards channel, that has not been violated for now.

There are many bears out there, since 1450 screaming for a crash, however our VIP MEMBERS were able to do very well on the upside while all this screaming went on, and I have a felling there is more movements on both sides of the market to profit from.

For now, the market more bullish, but a key note here is it is very overbought, and traders who are late to the rally party do not know what to do.

spx daily chart

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Broke To The Upside

Well we were saying the range on the S&P should be watched carefully, and said it was not long till we broke either upside or downside.

You can see in our LAST POST HERE

We broke to the upside, however I would not call it a convincing break!. The bulls yet again still have the upper hand I think. We are still up past our 1500 level we called months ago, and still the bears do not seem to be making their mark.

Yes, we are still in a bull market, however I can say to you that we are starting to see some very interesting signals on the charts, and a few warning signs that market may soon get a bit tired.


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Range - spx range

Range - spx range

Check out the hourly chart on the SPX, for the last few days we have been trading in nothing more than a range. UP and DOWN like a yo-yo!!!! :D

Once this breaks either way, its off to the races I feel. Tis just a matter of time.

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nasdaq chart - the nasdaq chart is telling

The market still seems to be holding, and taking lead from some of the market breadth indicators.

If you have a look at the nasdaq chart you can see that it has been holding its range for the last few weeks now.

This was looking like a bullish flag, however now this has just turned into a elongated range, and we must wait to see what happens.

nasdaq chart

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spx weekend update - spx weekend update and mulling

spx weekend update - spx weekend update and mulling

Over the weekend, I was looking at many charts. AI sentiment still showing us that we are in overbought territory with the S&P 500, however it does not look extreme.

As you can see we are in the sell zone, however on the line chart there is still room for us to wiggle up a bit higher. It looks like for months now the market has been creating a bearish rising wedge, and we must remember sentiment can shift however the first warning shot has not gone off yet, and it is possible we can see higher prices next week. Just a guess.

Our 1500 target has been hit :-) and the market on Friday shot up and is holding for now. The bulls still seem like they are not running out of steam just yet, so we must listen to that for now and forget the crowing roosters out there.

AI Sentiment

Taking a look at the S&P bullish percent, again we are still on a buy situation. We are up at 82.60 but there is no reason we cannot go up a bit more to ***** **VIP MEMBERS ONLY**

As you can see January has been a very good month, and very rewarding to the VIP MEMBERS

spx index

It seems the last few weeks, every man and his dog, and the so called expert pundits have been calling for a top on the market. Then the next week, more bears come out of the woodwork and call for a top again. It has not come yet! Are you starting to see a pattern here. LOL. Although this is not strange behavior, it has been quite entertaining.

Forget the pundits out there. All we need to do is read the charts for now and follow them. That has been working like gangbusters, and they will give us plenty of warning on what to expect and what actions to take next. :-)

Have a great weekend :-)

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Our Wild Prediction - Our Wild Prediction came true

Our WILD 1500 Prediction came true. WOW!

Back on the 13/12/2012 - Last year 2012   IN THIS POST HERE  we gave our wild prediction and said that the market was looking strong and also told our VIP members we were looking for 1500 to come on the S&P 500. 

At the time the S&P was sitting at about the 1410 level. 

Well some sniggered, some laughed, and some were ready to call the crazy farm and wanted to tell of our little tale. :-)

But again, here we are!

And here is the chart after todays close.... We actually closed above 1500.

1500 reached on S&P 500

We actually went up and touched 1503 on the S&P 500. 

The VIP members on our blog did very well, and again I want to thank our members for taking time out of their day to read our blog. 

I do not want to take the credit, I give all the credit to market analysis and technical analysis. When you do these things properly and know how to listen to the charts you can put things in your favour. And that can pay off very handsomely. 

Trade what you see, not what you think may happen. 

Chalk up another one! Drinks are on me! :-)

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spx weekly chart - spx weekly chart update

spx weekly chart update

Many weeks ago, we did predict the market to go up higher. (est 1500 spx)

For proof.... ==> VIEW THIS POST HERE

We were saying 1500 was coming, and believe it or not, on Friday, we got within 2 pts of that happening. LOL.



You can see below on the AI sentiment that the S&P which is obviously EXTREMELY overbought, is still on the bullish side, or has room to move higher if it wants to!

ai sentiment

Taking a look at the S&P 500 daily chart, we have a 'double confirmation' the bulls are still in charge. 

1) We have an inverted head and shoulders pattern that has formed back in OCT 2012 and we broke out of this early 2013. 

2) We have broken the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders and since early JANUARY 2013 we have been travelling in a nice upwards channel, that has not yet been broken to the downside. 

spx daily chart

Even in December we said not to fall in love with the downside, and that was corrrect. There were many traders caught short in early 2013. 

The summation chart is also another good market breadth indicator that gives us a good analogy on the overall sentiment of the stockmarket and indicies. Even though there are many bears who have been calling a top the last few months, the summation goes against all of these pundits, and has been clearly saying we are still in a BUY THE DIP kind of market. 

summation chart

Yes, I understand that right now, things are overbought, and I do agree with that whole heatedly. Yes eventually the market will top out, However it is important to be patient and trade what we see, and not what we think may happen. We read charts first and trade off of them and leave emotions in the background.



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us bonds daily chart - us bonds daily chart look horrible

us bonds daily chart look horrible

If we take a look at the us bonds daily chart it looks horrible at the moment.

Right now it looks to me that this chart has a bearish flag that has now been broken, which as  you know the us bonds daily chart is the inverse to the S&P 500 so that means this is bearish for bonds, and bullish for stocks and equities at the moment.

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1493 came

well 1493 came on the market we are still going up closer to our 1500 target! WOW only a few points away. Can it do it? 

We seem to be in upwards channel which has not broken yet.

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Nasdaq chart - Nasdaq chart is telling

We can see that the Nasdaq or the leader of the market has been holding well. Right now on the daily chart you can clearly see we have an ADSCENDING TRIANGLE on a POLE and we have just broken out of the resistance and we are peeking our head just a little above that resistance line. Interesting!

In our view this is BULLISH looking chart and can preceed higher prices. Time will tell.

Happy trading.

Ascending Triangle on a pole

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