Will the stock market continue to rally in 2017

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Will the stock market continue to rally in 2017

"Will the stock market continue to rally in 2017" 

in the news Will the stock market continue to rally in 2017? What this all about..... See below. 

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Well there are many people talking up the market, and then there are others who say a catastrophic event is on the way very soon. There is accumulating evidence that the economy is very much strengthening, and if this is the truth, that could be very good for the economy and stocks in 2017. 

Although we can have a very optimistic view. We must take into consideration TRUMP will be president next year, and no one is really sure what is in store for us. So there are a few simple warnings for investors.

If the bull market continues for the next few months, and does not take a pause. Then what you have on your hands is a market that is vulnerable. Meaning, the higher we go, the more chance we will have of some type of serious correction.  If we get higher interest rates, and we have a strong US dollar as well that would be something many investors will be afraid of, so we have to be careful here, to think the market will go skywards every week without some type of pause. 

Let’s be honest, since Donald trump Got in, the market shot up fast, and may be getting a little ahead of itself.  Think of a helium balloon, once the balloon is fresh with helium it will go up and up, but there will be a point as which the balloon will start to lose its strength, and then deflate and stop ascending. 

The equities in the US have been going higher since Donald Trump’s surprising victory. Some have been referring to this as the TRUMP RALLY, or the DONALD TRUMP rally. Maybe this is a coincidence because people are sick of the lies from the democrats and want change. Maybe Donald Trump getting in, could mean a cleansing out for the economy and stock market and that could be a good thing. Time will tell. 

You can now see that the S&P has broken the very solid resistance at 2175 and we have exploded UP very very violently. 

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What we have to remember is this current bull market could continue, and the reason is due to lower tax rates and a business environment that is much friendly, once Trump is actually in the white house office.

Smart money is already starting to shift to consumer staples and discretionary plays, as well as technology. It seems Donald trump is going to support these areas, and there could be huge growth potential in the next 4 years.  That would be an area some of the smart investors are looking right now as we head towards 2017.

With better economic growth and tax reforms that would mean small- and mid-cap stocks will benefit quite extensively, but if the US dollar was to keep rallying, that would only hurt larger multinationals. 

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That unusual surge in the dollar is coming thanks (in part) to Donald Trump

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That unusual surge in the dollar is coming thanks (in part) to Donald Trump

That unusual surge in the dollar is coming thanks (in part) to Donald Trump

"That unusual surge in the dollar is coming thanks (in part) to Donald Trump" 

so That unusual surge in the dollar is coming thanks (in part) to Donald Trump? What this all about..... See below. 

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The dollar index raced higher, in an unusually swift move against the yen and other currencies, as short-end bond yields spiked to a six-and-a-half year high.

Here is the chart.... as the USD hit a new high. WOW!

That unusual surge in the dollar is coming thanks (in part) to Donald Trump

Currency investors pinned the move on Wednesday's stronger-than-expected durable goods report, coupled with longer-term expectations that a stimulus plan from President-elect Donald Trump will rev up the U.S. economy and possibly force an earlier cycle of interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve.

As for the bond market, strategists said while durable goods and the rising dollar were a factor, they also pointed to developments Europe.

"We had decent data in the U.S. We also have U.K. yields, which are rising on the Treasury statement which projects a significant increase in borrowing post-Brexit,"  The U.S. 2-year yield, the sector most sensitive to the Fed, jumped to 1.14 percent, its highest level since April of 2010.

But there was also action related to the European Central Bank, which moved sovereigns in Europe and sent ripples through the U.S. market. The German 2-year bund yield retraced some of its losses, and was around -0.70 percent. The 10-year bund yield jumped to about 0.30 percent from a low of about 0.20 percent. The U.S. 10-year yield rose to 2.40 percent, its highest level since July, 2015.

The German bond market has been under a lot of pressure this morning, and almost the complete opposite of what we saw in the last couple of days. There's been a scarcity of paper, and apparently the ECB is going to try to provide some collateral in the market through repo, using shorthand for a repurchase agreement used to raise short-term capital. It's early days to know what' s going to happen, but it feels very technical and I would not just attribute this to U.S. data."

Strategists also said the move in the short-term yields was not a reaction to the upcoming Italian referendum, which was driving Italian bond yields higher Wednesday.

The dollar has been rising on expectations that interest rates will rise with the Trump fiscal program and tax cuts. The dollar index hit a new high Wednesday of 101.9, its highest level since March 21, 2003, when the dollar index traded as high as 102.15

Strategists have been forecasting that the euro would move to parity with the dollar, but the bigger drama was between the dollar and the yen Wednesday.

We have to remember the dollar/yen broke 111.40, a key level, and that in turn sent it to 112 and 112.50. It was at 112.90 in late morning trading.

It's just all positive U.S data creating a huge amount of stop running in the currency market. it took out a very big level in dollar/yen, meanwhile the charts are the most important thing here. And we continue to watch the chart. 


We have our overall outlook for pending 2017 period in the coming newsletter

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Traders look to cash in on climbing dollar trades

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Traders look to cash in on climbing dollar trades

Traders look to cash in on climbing dollar trades

"Traders look to cash in on climbing dollar trades" 

so Traders look to cash in on climbing dollar trades ? But how can they do this ?..... See below. 

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Right now, Traders look to cash in on climbing dollar trades. [see chart below]



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On wall st traders weighed the opportunities that were helped by a stronger dollar on Wednesday.

[chart] Taking a look at the US dollar, which climbed to a near 14-year high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, may not continue to rise. The financial sector finished the day down 1.42 percent, but the sector isn't too far off its record highs from earlier this week, which has alerted some investors lately. Especially after TRUMP has is now the president elect.  Here is the USD chart....

Traders look to cash in on climbing dollar trades

The technology sector bounced back Wednesday, finishing up nearly 1 percent. That could be a sign of the market's consistent rotation, ultimately leading to a chance for more upside. We shall see in the next 4 week, if that is the case.

There is "no question" that a stronger dollar is a headwind for oil, commodities, and emerging markets and is definitely something to watch. SO we are keeping that on the radar for our MEMBERS HERE!....

Lets not assume that bank stocks are going to continue to climb the way they have. Traders should not automatically assume that deregulation is coming, Anyone who buys Bank of America or Goldman Sachs, for example, is chasing the rally. In fact, both of those bank stocks are up more than 20 percent in the last month.....That might not be the best of ideas here at the end of 2016, however we can say that the market is reacting very positively to the TRUMP winning situation, but that could all change next year, when he is actually sitting in the chair in oval office, as of right now, we still have to remember OBAMA is running the country!!!, and the shock of the TRUMP win is wearing off. 

We have our overall outlook for pending 2017 period in the coming newsletter

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More updates coming please stay tuned

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TAKING A DUMP

USD TAKING A DUMP!


The last two days I have notice some clear and defined action in the US dollar. As you can see, it looks like the USD is taking a dump and money has been reaming back into stocks and equities sending us up higher.

This basically occured as soon as they worked out a deal in washington, and we have broken support. Could mean lower prices on the US dollar soon, obviously.

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US Dollar safe haven for now

The stock market and the U.S. dollar have are moving higher in tandem again, which analysts say could be a positive for U.S.-centric companies.

Have a look at what the stock market has been doing compared to the US dollar below. Normally they oppose each other, but recently they have been rallying up together.

stock market comparison

But why has this been happening? Well...... that is an interesting question.

Since the beginning of May, the dollar index has gained more than 2.5 percent. The dollar has been rising as a number of central banks around the world increased their easing, there has also been talks that the fed is going to scale back their normal bond buying programs, and investors are currently looking for safety.

Even though the US dollar is overbought, we could see higher prices come our way. The U.S. greenback broke above the key 100 yen mark for the first time in over four years. If global growth picks up then there could be more up for the US dollar. Most investor do not have too much confidence in the US right now, but they are seeing the US dollar as a safer haven for now, or the better place to invest.

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usd daily chart update

usd daily chart update

If we take a look at the us dollar daily chart you can see that we still in a major upwards channel, and things look very strong. At the moment there is lots of panic around the Cyprus crisis and people are still looking somewhere for safety. The USD is one of those vehicles.

up and up and up she goes, where she stops nobody knows?

I wouldnt be surprised if we see the 84 level come very soon.

usd chart

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bullish pennant - market breakout

bullish pennant - market breakout

it seems we were correct with our bullish pennant and  market breakout call for the US dollar just 24 hours ago.

pennant breakout

As you can see below, the USD took just 24 hours for the pennant to break to the upside just as we were  predicted :-)

This bullish pennant  and market breakout for the US dollar makes it even stronger now and it may be a game changer.

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Bonds Weekly Chart - The Bonds Weekly Chart

Bonds Weekly Chart 

The Bonds Weekly Chart is clearly in a downwards channel at the moment. With a target of 147. We have noticed over the last week or two money coming out of the stock and equities, and into the USD and bonds.

The Bonds Weekly Chart is also showing us that things are very very oversold longer term. So we would not be surprised to see Bonds Weekly Chart go up and reach the 147 market and then possibly break its falling resistance line and head higher.

The Bonds Weekly Chart is very telling and we will monitor this over the coming weeks.

bonds weekly chart

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Line In The Sand - The USD and line in the sand

Line In The Sand - The USD and line in the sand

Our VIP ELITE GROUP have been going gangbusters lately. I did want to post something in the FREE section here.

What I did notice today is that the US Dollar is that is is coming up to the line in the sand here. Currently trading at 79.82 the real line in the sand (or falling resistance line points) is about the $80 level. If it can break through this level the S&P is NOT going to like that, and it will create more selling. However, if the USD fails to get back past this $80 level, then the S&P which has been Bullish lately will find even more support and we will shoot higher.

I am also here, to remind you that the QE3 buying starts on friday, so it is my opinion that things will be volatile around then and you will have to be on your toe. But for now, watch that USD chart...its quite telling. 

Happy Trading :-)

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