Web Statistics October 2016

Tuesday 25 October 2016

how will the election affect the stock market

how will the election affect the stock market

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how will the election affect the stock market



how will the election affect the stock market
how will the election affect the stock market - how will the election affect the stock market



how will the election affect the stock market

Just how will the election affect the stock market ? that is a very good question, I think.

Every four years, politics and finance converge as Americans elect a president and investors try to figure out what the outcome means for their portfolios. A look back at history shows that presidential election cycles indeed correlate with stock market returns—although not in the same, clockwork way that, say, the moon pulls on tides. As for the outcome of elections? The impact might surprise you. Below, a few things investors should consider in election years.

The presidential cycle. The stock market has, for the most part, ebbed and flowed with the four-year election cycle for the past 182 years. Wars, bear markets and recessions tend to start in the first two years of a president’s term, says The Stock Trader’s Almanac; bull markets and prosperous times mark the latter half. Since 1833, the Dow Jones industrial average has gained an average of 10.4% in the year before a presidential election, and nearly 6%, on average, in the election year. By contrast, the first and second years of a president’s term see average gains of 2.5% and 4.2%, respectively. A notable recent exception to decent election-year returns: 2008, when the Dow sank nearly 34%. (Returns are based on price only and exclude dividends.)

But no one needs to tell you that the current cycle is anything but average. The Dow racked up an impressive 27% in the first year of President Obama’s second term, and 7.5% in year two. Last year, which was supposed to be the strongest of the cycle, saw the Dow industrials drop 2%. “Given that the past three years are so out of sync with the normal cycle, we’re not certain what 2016 will bring,” says Jim Stack, a market historian and publisher of the newsletter InvesTech Research.

Democrat or Republican? You may feel strongly about one party or the other when it comes to your politics, but when it comes to your portfolio, it doesn’t matter much which party wins the White House. Conventional wisdom might suggest that Republicans, who are supposedly more business-friendly than the Democrats, would be more beneficial for your stock holdings. In fact, looking back to 1900, Democrats have been slightly better for stocks, with the Dow up an average of nearly 9% annually when the Democrats are in control, compared with nearly 6% per year during Republican administrations. But normal variations in annual stock market returns dwarf that difference, says Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock. He concludes that a focus on which party wins the White House is unwarranted—at least from an investing standpoint.

A political crystal ball. Election results may not be so great at predicting stock market returns, but the converse is not the case. It turns out that the stock market has an uncanny ability to predict who will call the White House home for the next four years. If the stock market is up in the three months leading up to the election, put your money on the incumbent party. Losses over those three months tend to usher in a new party.

The statistics are compelling. In the 22 president elections since 1928, 14 were preceded by gains in the three months prior. In 12 of those 14 instances, the incumbent (or the incumbent party) won the White House. In seven of eight elections preceded by three months of stock market losses, incumbents were sent packing. Exceptions to this correlation occurred in 1956, 1968 and 1980. According to Stack, the S&P 500 has an 86.4% success rate in forecasting the election.

The question about how will the election affect the stock market can be answered I think with a nice chart. Here you can see the normal S&P 500 seasonality of an election year. Meaning that this is how the stock market performs over a 30 year period of election years. Its quite a secret that some of the big traders on WALL ST like to keep secret. As it has made them a few pennies over the years!!! Anyway, you can see that there is not much action until right at the point of the elections, where we sit right now. Then after a NEW PRESIDENT is elected there seems to be a psychology of NEW BEGINNINGS, and FRESH change, and it causes the BULLS to come back on the stock market in a HUGE way. You can see the chart below. I think I posted this chart, right at a time which is the most important on the chart. As I have pointed out below. {red arrow} so this could be a very good time to be actively trading the market!!!! 




What we can do is focus on more than earnings and threats from the FED about raising rates. I do not think that is going to be enough to take down this market, and when you look at the chart above, the bears, and people who are always pessimistic this year, are probably in for a huge shock. Time will tell.   -    Source : Cnbc.


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Thursday 20 October 2016

hindenburg omen 2016 - hindenburg omen tracker

hindenburg omen 2016 - hindenburg omen tracker

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hindenburg omen 2016 - hindenburg omen tracker



hindenburg omen 2016 - hindenburg omen tracker



hindenburg omen 2016 - hindenburg omen tracker

What is with all the people calling for a crash this month, the hindenburg omen 2016 - hindenburg omen tracker can give us more revelation to what is going on with the market and internals.

Investors also turned their eyes toward Europe, as the ECB kept interest rates unchanged, as was widely expected. Facing high unemployment, weak growth and ultra low inflation, the ECB has provided extraordinary stimulus in recent years, cutting interest rates deep into negative territory and pushing the cost of credit to all-time lows, hoping to jump start growth.

The hindenburg omen 2016 chart does clearly show that there is NOT crash coming in the next month or so. NOW, that does not mean we will not see a SELL off, infact OCTOBERS seasonally if you look back, and notoriously known to be months where the stock market will sell off.  But right now the HINDENBURG OMEN, is not really ready to do much at all. In actual fact, there is no real reason people should be panicing or calling for a crash here at the end few months of 2016. 




What should be more in focus right now is that "There is a question as to whether the ECB is, not just going to extend [quantitative easing], but also which direction they're going to go on," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial. "What assets are they going to buy? Remember, it's a much more shallow market for QE there than it is here."

ECB President Mario Draghi said that, while extending the central bank's current QE program beyond its March 2017 deadline was not discussed at this meeting, he did say the central bank will preserve very substantial amount of monetary policy support.

"If things remain the way they are, this could be the pivot point; this earnings recession will be over," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities.

"Earnings is going to be one of the main factors as we head into the end of the year and the into 2017," said Casey Clark, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede. "What we're looking for is for more top-line growth."  -    Source : Cnbc.


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Tuesday 11 October 2016

VIX chart

Vix chart

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vix chart ?



vix chart



Vix chart

Well its all about the VIX chart right now

Lets go ahead and take a look at the VIX on the weekly timeframe.

The VIX on the weekly has basically bounced yet again off the 11 level. That seems to be a real solid floor if you ever trade or watch the VIX. We have had CHINA issues, BREXIT, RATE HIKE rumors, and now earnings, so its probably safe to say the VIX might find more support here, and some more buying. 






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Thursday 6 October 2016

Stock Market Update - Latest stock market update



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Stock Market Update ?



Stock Market Update
Stock Market Update 



Stock Market Update - Current Stock Market Update

U.S. stocks closed near the flatline on Thursday as investors looked ahead to a key employment report.

"I think a large part of it is a good jobless claims number, which certainly gives more weight to tomorrow's jobs report," said Eric Wiegand, senior portfolio manager at the Private Client Reserve at U.S. Bank.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed about 10 points lower, with Wal-Mart and American Express contributing the most losses. The S&P 500 closed just above the flatline, with materials leading advancers and health care the top decliner. The Nasdaq composite dropped 0.17 percent, as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) fell more than 2 percent.

The three major indexes had traded further below the flatline earlier in the session, with the Dow falling 118.06 points at session lows.


The stock market and in this case the US indicies or DOW JONES has been going sideways for weeks now. We can still say the market is keeping afloat and not taking a PANIC ATTACK biscuit over interest rates, LOWER VIX and the brexit news that will come to the forefront next month! You can see the DOW has been treading water in between exactly 18000 and 18400 with the next move probably going to be significant!. 



The Labor Department is scheduled to release its September jobs report on Friday, with economists polled by Reuters expecting the U.S. economy to have added 175,000 jobs and unemployment holding steady at 4.9 percent.

"The market is processing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike. If you look at the yield curve, it's higher. I think investors looking for yield are reconsidering some of their holdings," said Kim Forrest, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital.

"We expect jobs growth to continue in health care, tech and finance," said Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor, adding he expects the U.S. economy to have added 176,000 jobs last month. "The labor market is very strong. This is pretty unusual heading into an election." "Such low unemployment numbers are talking some of the most pessimistic talking points off the table."

The jobs report will come on the back of upbeat U.S. data released Wednesday, including the strongest print on the ISM non-manufacturing index for the year. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims fell to 249,000.

"A weak Jobs Report on Friday would erase any of the positive sentiment gained with yesterday's strong number," said Jeremy Klein, chief market strategist at FBN Securities..  -    Source : Cnbc.


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