Nasdaq - sideways channel

April can be a boring time on the market in terms of the trading calendar. As you can see we have not really done much since the end of March.

When Easter time comes, the smart money is normally out of the market and will not hop back in till the end of this week or early next week. So again the market seems to be in limbo.

The chart below shows the Nasdaq in a lazy channel. No one is really winning the battle as the market is directionless for now. When the smart money comes back that could be a different story.

The hourly chart below shows nothing more than a bump and grind sideways.

nasdaq sideways channel

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strength of us dollar - the strength of us dollar is telling

strength of us dollar - the strength of us dollar is telling

Looking at the chart below, the strength of us dollar not only important,  the strength of us dollar is very telling.

As you can see at the top of the chart, the NASDAQ has really not done much the last few months. It has merely been trapped in a range. The nasdaq hit the top resistance line and now seems to be retreating a bit, however it has not really picked a direction.

The USD chart below has gone from strength to strength!, as it continue to stay within its upwards channel and put pressure on the leader of the market. It seems that money is coming out of stocks and equities and starting to go into the USD and other assets as we have explained recently. Will this continue?

strength of us dollar 

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annoying range - The Annoying Range

The Annoying Range 

There seems to be an annoying range right now on the market. This is what is called a megaphone pattern in terms of technical analysis.

Megaphones can last a few days, or a few weeks, and normally gather momentum for a break out or break down below their extremities.

We are at 2741 on the nadaq which is the leader of the market. And need to watch things carefully to see where the leader wants to take us next.

As you can see since new years day, the market has been strong and now halted in this annoying range.

annoying range

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spx update - the latest spx update

spx update

Our VIP MEMBERS are out of the market, with some nice gains, 90pts infact. Very nice indeedy.

The markets in the next several months are in for a nice WILD RIDE I think. This happens every time we get conditions like we are seeing, so its gunna be very lucrative to those who know what they are doing, I am sure.

This is no doubt the S&P chart right now is looking very healthy. See how we bottomed with the INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER and now we are travelling up in a nice upwards channel, that has not been violated for now.

There are many bears out there, since 1450 screaming for a crash, however our VIP MEMBERS were able to do very well on the upside while all this screaming went on, and I have a felling there is more movements on both sides of the market to profit from.

For now, the market more bullish, but a key note here is it is very overbought, and traders who are late to the rally party do not know what to do.

spx daily chart

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dot com crash recovery - the dot com crash recovery

dot com crash recovery

Below is a chart for your viewing pleasure. As you can see, on the NASDAQ monthly chart Since 2009 we have recovered and seen new highs.

We have even done a 50% retracement of the dotcom crash phenomenon back in the the early 2000's

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Nasdaq Hourly Chart

Nasdaq Hourly Chart

Today we posted an update HERE on the nasdaq chart. We made some notes on how the nasdaq the last few days, has been doing nothing more than just coiling or in a low range tight price pattern and working out where it wants to go next.

If we have a look at the HOURLY Nasdaq chart, we can see that the very quick upwards rally has left a gap on the chart. This is highly unusual and we must warn you that these gaps do eventually close, sooner or later.

For now, however, since the 3rd of January we have topped and just going sideways, however on the nasdaq chart   the nasdaq seems to have found a bit of support, and we are oversold on the hourly, which means that in the next few days it is probable we will see some sort of bounce, and even a break out to the upside, depending on how strong the bulls feel.

Nasdaq Hourly Chart

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nasdaq daily chart

As with the previous post => FISCAL CLIFF PANIC we stated that the last few days have been classic holiday reversals, and EXTREMELY LOW volume

Have a look at the nasdaq daily chart.

As you can see we have sold off since the start of the holidays. We sold off on very thin volume, meaning right now the smart money is gone from the market.

Also the stochastics are confirming that we are now very oversold on the market and a bounce is due soon.

It seems we are still in holiday reversal time period and with the fiscal cliff talks that is also putting added pressure on the markets. The breadth and other market indicators are skeptical that these moves will hold for long, and there is a considerable sized bounce coming very soon.

Charts are just saying this is a dip before a larger move higher. If you are a bear, do not fall in love with the downside, doing that in holiday reveral time periods can sometimes be very dangerous.

Enjoy you weekend and we will come back next week and monitor things closely.


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Weekend Update

Weekend Update

Well what an interesting OPEX week huh?

Even though we saw a very larger mini flash crash on the market in globex the market recovered quite well.

Take a look at the NYSE McClellan indicator. It hit new highs this week and also pointing in a north direction at the weeks end. The bottom of this chart you will notice that summation is still BULLISH at this stage, which is a buy the dip scenario.

NYSE Chart

Take a look at the 60 minute chart. Even with that big sell off in globex the S&P went down right to very nicely intersected trend lines, and a nice rising support. The stochastics is confirming after this happend, we went into oversold mode, and soon after the market tried to bounce a bit. We are remaining in this channel for now, and we will wait to see if we can hold in this channel next week. 

SPX 60 minute chart

 Even with the mini flash crash you can see how this dip was bought back quite extensively. We smelt bullshit from as we slip slided down, as it was the end of the world date, and this move did not feel right at all. And as you can see, we went down to the 1390 level, investors starting panicking and then it was bought up back in literally minutes.

Such a movement makes us skeptical, especially in opex, and would not be surprised to see holiday reversals (more up coming on low volume) to play out starting some time next week.

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fiscal cliff - how to trade the fiscal cliff news

fiscal cliff news is all the talk of the town, yet no matter what fiscal cliff news is coming, traders are still not looking at their charts.

The bulls were not able to print a higher high today compared to last Friday. I am kind of sounding like a broken record, lol, but until this happens the bears remain in control and caution should be exercised.

fiscal cliff news

I have been warning to watch the leader "The NASDAQ" in the next few days. I saw many other pundits get excited about a bounce in early trading, however it did not last, and traders who were long got caught yet again!

Fiscal Cliff this! LOL

Look at the nasdaq chart below. I was not surprised to see fresh lows get hit today, as I cannot see any strong buy signals at the moment, even though there were lots of traders screaming to get long. So we watch and we wait. 

There is lots of news tomorrow FOMC news minutes. Sentiment is still bearish for now. These markets do not seems like they are settled yet, and there are lots of talk about about Obama and this fiscal cliff and whether there will be some sort of decisions made, but one thing I do know is that no matter the fiscal cliff news these markets are still quite unstable. 

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Bonds Building - Market Still Tired

Well another red day on the market as we hinted at in the ( VIP ELITE GROUP HERE )

After a few weeks of bonds being very messy, alot of the bonds traders are jumping for joy as the chart has cleaned up a bit. Have a look at the weekly chart on BONDS below. It seems to be forming a bullish flag at the moment. It has not broken yet, and is only "looking" like a bullish flag, because it must break out of this pattern first for more buying to come in. That will put even more pressure on the market.

With the strength in bonds, the market (nasdaq) has now broken out of its upwards channel and the bottom resistance line, and continued down today on WEDNESDAY. If we look back it is obvious that we have not see 3 or 4 down HEAVY down days in a row, so my guess is that the bears still have the upper hand, but there will might be some sort of bounce coming, but we will probably have to wait till next week to see this happen, and also see how bad the bulls want it! :-)

The sentiment right now is still with the bears, and our breadth indicators are confirming that. Happy trading :-)

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