bull market fears - bull market fears

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bull market fears - bull market fears

"bull market fears - bull market fears"

what bull market fears - bull market fears? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader told   ==> our VIP MEMBERS here <==  Fund managers see 'cracks in the bull' market as trade war fears escalate

Professional investors see global growth prospects at their lowest level since Brexit as fears of a trade war surge, according to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey.

On a broad level, the monthly gauge shows waning confidence in the bull market even as money continues to flow into stocks. Low-volatility bets that had reflected the market's benign nature have faded from popularity after detonating in early February, while more investors move to defensive positions, including a rush to banks.

"Cracks in the bull case are starting to emerge, with fund managers citing concerns over trade, stagflation and leverage," Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofAML, said in a statement. "Investors have yet to act on these fears, however, as rates and earnings are keeping the bulls bullish."

Indeed, the market has managed to steady itself after an initial inflation scare sent major averages into correction territory. The S&P 500 is up about 5 percent since bottoming Feb. 8 but overall had gained just 1.5 percent for the year heading into Tuesday trading.

 This S&P chart could be one to watch See how we are in trouble but still in a rising upwards channel -- See the chart below.... 

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Our Members here => VIP members here    Were told that, Funds have continued to attract investor money, to the tune of $151.7 billion this year, according to BofAML data through March 14. Cash levels among fund managers edged lower in March from 4.7 percent to 4.6 percent.

But worries are beginning to crop up.

Fears of a trade war, dormant since the early days of the Trump administration, have re-emerged since the president slapped tariffs on imported steel and aluminum earlier this month. The threat of a wider conflict topped the list of fears with 30 percent of respondents, while inflation was next at 23 percent followed by global growth at 16 percent.

It's the first time trade concerns topped the list since January 2017.

Those results mirror the most recent CNBC Fed Survey, in which trade also topped concerns, though 48 percent of respondents said they generally approve of how President Donald Trump is handling the economy.

In the BofAML survey, 87 percent of fund managers said protectionism would boost inflation and stagflation, the latter a term for sluggish growth with higher prices.

On the bright side, investors are optimistic about corporate profits, with 58 percent expecting global earnings per share to rise by more than 10 percent in the next 12 months. S&P 500 earnings are projected to jump 17 percent in the second quarter, according to FactSet.


Fund managers also are a little less afraid of rising bond yields. Survey respondents indicated a 3.6 percent yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note would trigger a move from stocks into bonds. A number of bond market veterans, led by DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach, have put the danger zone closer to 3 percent.


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ethereum chart - ethereum technical analysis 2018

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ethereum chart - ethereum technical analysis 2018

"ethereum chart - ethereum technical analysis 2018"

what is the ethereum chart - ethereum technical analysis 2018? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader told  ==> our VIP MEMBERS here <==  that some of the crypto currencies are lagging, and it might be a time you can do some research and go and do some red light shopping for some bargains early in 2018 here.  

While the stock market is way down the last few days,  there is still money going over to the crypto market. While longer term we see high risks in this asset space, but shorter term there may be several secret hot opportunities that are laying around and ETHEREUM could be one of them. 

When going bargain hunting based on our very accurate charts, we look at ETHEREUM or ETH/USD which we see has a BULLISH FLAG pattern forming and a break of 1000 is very very bullish, in the mid term. A flag pole repeat would mean this could see very nice rallies into the latter part of 2018. We will alert our VIP members later.  But we like the look of the pattern setting up here. 

 This could be one to watch -- See the chart below.... 

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Our Members here => VIP members here    Were told that, while bitcoin is the grandaddy of the blockchain and payments, you have to remember ETHEREUM is the grand daddy of all the blockchain, and blockchain apps and infrastructure, so its defiantly one to watch. 

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best stock market forecasters - best stock market forecasters

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best stock market forecasters 

"best stock market forecasters " 

 what the  best stock market forecasters are saying what about the market? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader is hounding the best stock market forecasters around town for answers on what is happening to the market so we can help our AWESOME  ==> our VIP MEMBERS here <==  right now it seems the Bull Trots Steadily On
After another week of gains, investors aren’t getting out of this market soon. Just ahead, a record for consecutive days without a 5% selloff.

After another week of strong gains for stocks, the fear of missing out could drive this bull market even higher. We will find out soon enough I guess. 

the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 368.58 points, or 1.6%, to 22,773.67, its fourth consecutive week of gains. The Nasdaq Co mposite gained 1.5% to 6590.18, a record high, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 1.2% to 2549.33.

And what well-earned gains they were. Early last week, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index hit 60.8, its highest level since 2004. That was followed by better-than-expected jobless claims and durable goods orders on Thursday. Even Friday’s weaker-than-expected payrolls report could be explained away due to the hurricanes that hammered the country during September. Looking ahead to next week, September’s consumer-price-index data could provide more evidence of a not-too-hot, not-too-cold economy.


Have a look at the market, we had our first red day in weeks. But the markets are skyrocketing!! It seems santa is come to fill the sacks early for investors. This is quite interesting. 

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Our Members here => VIP members here    think the market has gone bananas! Some of our newer members think the market cannot go higher this year. But in all our experience we need to tell you the market can remain irrational, much longer than traders can remain SOLVENT in terms of money. 

Generally, fundamentals look good, but things are skyrocketing, so We expect the expansion to continue at a much slow rate.

Speaking of slow: The S&P 500 has now gone 332 days without a 5% drop, second only to the 333-day rally that began on Nov. 23, 1994.

Our top analysts here at SENTIMENT TRADER reminds us that bull markets generally see a “blowoff” move from at least one market sector before all is said and done. He points to 2007 and the rally in oil stocks—the energy sector gained 32% that year as the market was topping—and I’d add the tech sector’s 78% rise in 1999.

We are thinking that no matter what, its pretty obvious to us that, the bull market probably isn’t done yet, we think bigger dips or a larger sell off could happen.  They call this THE MOST UNLOVED bull market in history” Gretz say. But it will be loved or well liked long before it’s over!!! 

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The Bull Market Marches On

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The Bull Market Marches On

"The Bull Market Marches On" 

in the news The Bull Market Marches On? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader show a very interesting chart today, just like how VIP members here  <= saw.. as the bull market keeps climbing. 


U.S. equities closed at record highs on Monday as Wall Street kicked off the fourth quarter on a high note.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 152.51 points to close at 22,557.60, with Goldman Sachs contributing the most to the gains.

The S&P 500 rose 0.4 percent to 2,529.12, led by gains in health care and financials. Health care was one of the best-performing sectors, rising 0.9 percent, as biotech stocks posted their best day since Aug. 31. Financials rose 0.89 percent and have gained nearly 2 percent in the past month.

"Health care continues to be on fire and financials keep doing well. That's helping out the market today, t's also the first trading day of the month, which is usually the strongest day of the month for stocks, as fresh funds are put to work from the bigger hedge funds. 

The indexes also set intraday records, as they began a historically positive period for stocks. According to our statistics, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq have averaged strong fourth-quarter returns in the past 25 years. Stocks are also building on gains set in the previous quarter.

The Russell 2000 also had a stellar third quarter, advancing 5.3 percent and notching a record high.. But its like no one can stop the market right now, not even the horrific terrorist event in LAS VEGAS. 

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Our Members here => VIP members here  "I think the reasons stocks, especially small caps, are doing so well are the economy and hopes of tax reform,

Traders and financial professionals work on the floor of the New York Stock 
"The economy is doing well despite the storms, a lot of folks don't think there will be tax reform but the market thinks there will be. If that happens, it will be a big boost to the economy."

Tax-reform expectations have been a key catalyst for stocks since President Donald Trump's election, along with hopes of deregulation. So we will be watching for that. 

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september stock market analysis - september stock market analysis

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september stock market analysis - september stock market analysis

"september stock market analysis - september stock market analysis" 

in the news september stock market analysis - september stock market analysis? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader show a very interesting chart today, just like in VIP members here  <= saw.  The healthiness of this rally is due to the fact that sustained areas of near these highs is because of the healthy rotation of sector to sector to sector. So there is a really very reliable chart that our members can look at, that is very very valuable here. This chart is one of the ones that everyone needs to see that will blow you mind! This shows we have never had a full year on the stock market, when the S&P 500 has had such a small draw down as we have had in 2017. Have a look at the chart below.....

All the way to the right side in orange. That is how small the max draw downs this year in 2017. A little bit more than 3%, and if it finishes the year this way, it will be the smallest ever seen since the year 1914. Wow! Some very good stats too look at. 

What is even more interesting is that people will point at this chart and say we have to get a mean reversion and we have to see a large correction soon. Sure! I can see that side of the argument. And sooner or later the volatility has to show up, and sure this is very bizarre and abnormal. But just because we get to these extreme readings, that does not mean you have to take everything off and we are bound to see a HUGE crash or correction. So its important to keep that in mind. The world does not work that way!!!

So I would not take this as a signal that we are about to see devastation coming to the market in the next month or leading into Xmas. Sure we can see dips, and blips coming our way, but what this is saying its been an incredible year for stocks, and profits, and for each and everyone of us to be careful going forward. 

We think September going forward is going to be a proxy for the entire year. When you think about all the challenges we have had this year, coming into September it has not caused us to dip or crash like some out there have been saying. There is a lot of resilience with the market here. Here is the chart of the MAX draw downs we have seen this year. Its very tiny. 

 This is quite interesting. 

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Our Members here => VIP members here  Have noticed One other factor that we should remember which is, when the year started, we had a very surprising election result. And there were many investors who were concerned about what was on the horizon, and with trump in office, they thought that would be a very bad thing, and they took money off the table. 

Although there is a lot of bearishness out there, there is the Russell up 5%, there is the banks up 3% and energy up 8%. And on and on it goes. 

One other factor that we should remember is, when the year started, it become up a very surprising election result. And there were many investors who were concerned about what was on the horizon, and with trump in office, they thought that would be a very bad thing, and taken money off the table. So through the course of this year, we have had good quarter after good quarter and decent earnings as well. People who have not been fully invested have had to put some money back in the market the last few months, and again this week, because they do not want to be left behind. 

Does this chart we put up [see above] make us here at sentiment trader nervous? well, sure! It does! Everyday makes us nervous going forward. For the market to remain resilient in the face of negative headline after negative headline that could have caused a bigger type of correction. Also as you read this we have gone 455 days without a meaningful 5% correction. That has not happened for about 50 years or so. So sure it makes us nervous, but there is not reason to panic. 

Does that mean the next quarter and earnings are going to drop the ball and fall off the table. Well, we do not think that is going to be the case. 

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Historic Run For Tech Sector - Historic Run For Tech Sector

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Historic Run For Tech Sector

"Historic Run For Tech Sector" 

in the news Historic Run For Tech Sector? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader can see right now, a Historic Run For Tech Sector 


As the nasdaq pumps itself up higher and holds, what we have found interesting, we are up 23 or 27 sessions, and we can tell you that when we look back to our charts, going right back the market has never ever done that before. We are living in very interesting times. But this next chart might take your fancy!?

Look at the XLK chart or the [ technology sector ]. What a fantastic chart!!! :-0 You can clearly see how this chart has been in an uptrend for many weeks now....[see below]

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I guess when you go and look back at history, there are 2 ways to look at this :-

1) The first you could think OH NO, this is dot com boom type stuff, sell everything, lets panic!!!!! 

Or 

2) the smart way to look at it, is MOMENTUM BEGETS MORE MOMENTUM, and its good news in the longer term we could be looking at more gains. 

So which is it? 

Well before we answer that we must admit, we have been witness to incredible momentum here. Have these bigger big cap, powerful technology companies  taken off. Yes! Of course. But its nothing like the growth and skyrocketing we saw back in 1999. What we are looking at is the facebooks, the apples, and other companies like nvidia have exploded higher, and represent 11% of the 22% gains in the nasdaq. So in other words the top 5 holdings. 

Its nothing short of incredible!!!

The question is will this continue? We think sure....at some pace, but in relative perspective you might be better looking at other pockets of the market, that are not gaining huge attention. 

Such sectors could be Utilities or finanicals, or even the transports, which have been lacking over the last several months. 

Will momentum go forward from here. Well, we would not bet against it, but as to reiterate, as a relative perspective point of view, there might be better value laying hidden in the market right now. 

A lot of this huge run in technology is based on earnings and revenue. Especially earnings growth. Earnings growth came in recently at about 12%, and that is what we can be expecting over the next 12 months. Valuations however, on a general basis are sitting at about 21 right now, which is looking a bit to expensive and overbought to us right now. But that does not mean we cannot go higher, of course. 


So all in all, we are following what the smart money is doing here. While they do not expect a 2008 type correction, they see valuations a bit [pricey] here and continue to be cautiously optimistic. 

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Dow Jones Transports are blocking a major rally - Dow Jones Transports are blocking a major rally

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Dow Jones Transports are blocking a major rally

"Dow Jones Transports are blocking a major rally" 

in the news Dow Jones Transports are blocking a major rally? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader With stocks pulling back modestly as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slip from their 7-day rallies, and one index will prove whether the rally still has legs: the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

We can notice that the group has been trading lower since its March 1 peak, which he attributed to the narrowing of the overall market rally as investors move to faster growing stocks.

Looking closely at the stocks that make up the transports index, we found a few key trends.

This is a classic case of the TRANSPORTS lagging, and NASDAQ rallying, but lets face it the NASDAQ is not skyrocketing like it should be. Here is why, you can see it on the chart.

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Other leaders in the group are sparse. Southwest Airlines is up 21 percent on strong execution. Railroad Kansas City Southern and the embattled United Continental were the only other double-digit gainers.

The rest of the group lagged. Most of the airlines offered minor gains of 3 or 4 percent, while truck, freight, and logistics companies like J.B. Hunt and Ryder were down, some with double-digit losses.

"I find the action in this group disturbing, You remove CSX and Norfolk Southern and Southwest and you've got a group that confirms the bond market's advance, meaning interest rates going down, and not the stock market's rally — stocks going up. There are just too many negatives, with a total of eight down for the year. It's not a group that you want to own."

And while it can be uplifting to tinker with the group, replacing Ryder with competitor XPO Logistics for a 30-percent boost or removing rental car player Avis with its 40 percent downturn, the index offers clarity more than anything else.

History teaches us that you can't look through an index like that, and the only conclusion right now is that the Dow Jones Transportation index offers no solace for the bulls and without a re-acceleration, makes you feel that the rally isn't being confirmed by a group that I have always thought has to be appeased if we're going to get another leg up from here.

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Is the bull market looking tired - Is the bull market looking tired

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Is the bull market looking tired

"Is the bull market looking tired" 

in the news Is the bull market looking tired? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader has readers asking Is the bull market looking tired?

that is a good question we think....

what is really surprising to us especially the market performance of the Korean market, which is one of the best in ASIA at the moment, not only because of it being in Asia but  of the strength of the Huyng, and has been relatively strong verses the US Dollar. 

Not many people are looking at the pricing of risk, so with the risk in check, that could mean there could be a headwinds looming and things are not looking as good as they could be leading into the summer time period. We have some powerful charts that monitor that. It would mean there could be downwards reaction, so going into the next few months, we are warning clients to be a bit more on the cautious side. 

Here is a chart of the stock market, and yet again, YES, we have yet again broken out to new highs. :-)

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Is the Bull market starting to look a bit tired? Really? Well all we can say is we can take a look at the hard data, which has surfaced. That is saying, for a long time valuations have been a bit stretched. What we are talking about is 1 standard deviation above the average 10 year trading average

As you read this post, the markets are pricing in a lot of positives coming out of economic growth, and more trump talks, and trump reforms, honestly we have not seen anything delivered yet. This just means we are rallying on hope of some good news, before the news is out. Sometimes this can lead investors into a false sense of security. But the way we see it right now, is that there really is nothing to panic about. 

But please stay in check, that in these sorts of situations there is always room for lots of disappointment. So if there is room for negatives right now, this would be it. 

The fed, is fully priced for another rate hike in June. So we will see what happens there. Plus earnings is finished and right at the end, the numbers were pretty good. 

The main reason why equity markets have risen so much we have seen positive earnings revision for the first time in many many years. We could chalk up another positive here as well. 

In order to have further upside potential, we really need to see more earnings upgrades, and the only way this can happen is to come from better economic conditions. So far the jury is out on that one, I am afraid, but we will wait and see what will happen. 


The other area our analysts are looking at is the ECB story. There is an ECB meeting in june, where we will hear from draghi about the potential tapering which could potentially occur in 2018. 

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Is The bull market coming to an end - Is The bull market coming to an end

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Is The bull market coming to an end

"Is The bull market coming to an end" 

Is The bull market coming to an end? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader After the US election and Donald Trump getting elected, and investors watching the market skyrocket to new highs in a matter of weeks. Is this all just a false rally? And is the bull market finally coming to an end? 
These are very interesting questions. We have just witnessed a rally we have not seen in over 40 years. Its quite historical. Mix that with the stock market, very close to the 20,000 level on the DOW, a level many top wall st traders say is a very psychological level. 

The Stock market is not the only huge rally we are seeing, the US dollar is up 20% in a few months, after the fed decided to hike interest rates by a quarter point, and upped its forecast for the 3 hikes in 2017. That means, we could be looking at the very beginning of interest rates lows, and before we start to see the fed hike rates over the next few years. 

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Many top analysts feel that stock traders have been looking over the shoulders recently at bond yields, fearing bond devils run rates up so much that the stock market gains are now going to be choked off. Still even though the stock market has had a few down days, the momentum still seems to be on the upside. It seems buying momentum has not slowed down at all. 

The market may be on the move, but some strategists on wall st are saying this Trump rally is getting a little bit long in the tooth, and telling their members that stocks cannot keep going up in a straight line for months on end. Eventually we have to pause or even seeing some sort of correction. 

Let’s be honest, that the speed of this rally on the stock market has not only been historical, it’s been a little surprising. So in a way, there are certainly risks to the upside when you look at the stock market, and where have come from, and where we are right now. It’s probably much better to wait until Donald Trump is sitting in his chair in the Whitehouse giving orders, and to see how some of his fiscal policies are going to be implemented in 2017. 

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If Donald Trump cannot deliver on some of his promises, this is not only going to be very bad, it’s going make investors feel uncertain, and when investors get nervous and feel uncertain about the economy or the stock market, that is usually a clear sign they will want to sell, and it will obviously put a stop to the current bull market rally. So at this stage of the race, its probably a wise move not to get excited here. 

Normally when people get excited and start selling their house, car and kids to get long the market, that is a sign they are too late to the party, and you might want to take notice of this too, so you do not get caught up in too much of the hype yourself. 

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Don’t believe the S&P rally hype - Should You believe the S&P rally hype

Don’t believe the S&P rally hype

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Don’t believe the S&P rally hype

Don’t believe the S&P rally hype

Don’t believe the S&P rally hype

Don’t believe the S&P rally hype - or should you really buy into it. We can say that its a case of Don’t believe the S&P rally hype , however. We need to take a closer look at the chart.

Even as stocks hit record highs, this rally is not all it's cracked up to be. We have lower volume and we have gone up to fast to quick. I think to think this is going to go to the moon from here, might be a bit of a crap shoot.

By Friday's market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed a five-day streak of record highs, while the S&P 500 Index posted a four-day record of closing highs.

Many investors flocked to stocks during the rally, while big bank earnings and strong retail sales data drove stocks higher. However, we must say that infact the equity performance has actually been rather disappointing lately.

The issue here might be that we know on an absolute basis, one has nothing to show for having been in the market now since May of a year ago.

This is a constant mistake, and you must realise that Investors can get too bullish at highs, and extreme bearish at lows. You can go back and take a look in previous times if you do not believe us.
Our charts, actually show that if we look year-over-year change for key assets. Nothing earth changing has happend for us to go 'meaningfully higher'.....

so maybe it is a case of ' Don’t believe the S&P rally hype ' but just for now. Such indicators like Treasury bonds, gold and real estate—nearly all up in the double-digits— you must realise that stocks are the worst-performing major asset class since last May, up less than one percent. So that is why we are a little cautious here.

In looking at the S&P total return index, its trajectory falls below the S&P 30-year bond futures total return index.

The total return of just being in the bond market versus the stock market, no result, and yet again, all the volatility, if you adjust for the risk, it's not parity at all.

Plus the fact we have VIX at all time lows, and mentioned that to our VIP members just 24 hours ago. 

And when adjusted for inflation, we can attest to the fact that the S&P has still not taken out its March 2000 high, a record set during the tech bubble. Considering this was about 15 years ago this level is quite significant.

I would take a rocketship rally higher, and a meaningfully RALLY to start to compensate for the risk that's been associated with owning equities not only for the last 18 months, but for quite some time now.

Here is a chart of the S&P 500 with just 2 red days, and lower volume our analyts are starting to umm and ahhh here. Because due to that violent upwards move, and without it being back, and with gaps in the chart as well on the downside, something is fishy here it seems. [See the Chart below]

Don’t believe the S&P rally hype

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You may be in the camp that thinks, hold on, we are going up and that is the trajectory and we should rocket higher from here, to the moon. But that would not be a smart way to think, considering how volatile the market has been lately. The ups and downs has been enough for even the most steadies of hands type trader to get sea sick.....

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 I cover more and more technical analysis ==> HERE in our VIP members section.

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