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Don’t believe the S&P rally hype - Should You believe the S&P rally hype

Don’t believe the S&P rally hype

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Don’t believe the S&P rally hype

Don’t believe the S&P rally hype

Don’t believe the S&P rally hype

Don’t believe the S&P rally hype - or should you really buy into it. We can say that its a case of Don’t believe the S&P rally hype , however. We need to take a closer look at the chart.

Even as stocks hit record highs, this rally is not all it's cracked up to be. We have lower volume and we have gone up to fast to quick. I think to think this is going to go to the moon from here, might be a bit of a crap shoot.

By Friday's market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed a five-day streak of record highs, while the S&P 500 Index posted a four-day record of closing highs.

Many investors flocked to stocks during the rally, while big bank earnings and strong retail sales data drove stocks higher. However, we must say that infact the equity performance has actually been rather disappointing lately.

The issue here might be that we know on an absolute basis, one has nothing to show for having been in the market now since May of a year ago.

This is a constant mistake, and you must realise that Investors can get too bullish at highs, and extreme bearish at lows. You can go back and take a look in previous times if you do not believe us.
Our charts, actually show that if we look year-over-year change for key assets. Nothing earth changing has happend for us to go 'meaningfully higher'.....

so maybe it is a case of ' Don’t believe the S&P rally hype ' but just for now. Such indicators like Treasury bonds, gold and real estate—nearly all up in the double-digits— you must realise that stocks are the worst-performing major asset class since last May, up less than one percent. So that is why we are a little cautious here.

In looking at the S&P total return index, its trajectory falls below the S&P 30-year bond futures total return index.

The total return of just being in the bond market versus the stock market, no result, and yet again, all the volatility, if you adjust for the risk, it's not parity at all.

Plus the fact we have VIX at all time lows, and mentioned that to our VIP members just 24 hours ago. 

And when adjusted for inflation, we can attest to the fact that the S&P has still not taken out its March 2000 high, a record set during the tech bubble. Considering this was about 15 years ago this level is quite significant.

I would take a rocketship rally higher, and a meaningfully RALLY to start to compensate for the risk that's been associated with owning equities not only for the last 18 months, but for quite some time now.

Here is a chart of the S&P 500 with just 2 red days, and lower volume our analyts are starting to umm and ahhh here. Because due to that violent upwards move, and without it being back, and with gaps in the chart as well on the downside, something is fishy here it seems. [See the Chart below]

Don’t believe the S&P rally hype

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You may be in the camp that thinks, hold on, we are going up and that is the trajectory and we should rocket higher from here, to the moon. But that would not be a smart way to think, considering how volatile the market has been lately. The ups and downs has been enough for even the most steadies of hands type trader to get sea sick.....

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 I cover more and more technical analysis ==> HERE in our VIP members section.

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dead cat bounce now

dead cat bounce now

is this just a dead cat bounce now

We are watching the S&P very closely here, and as you can see the S&P bounce quite agreessively off the 1730 mark, and we have been rallying ever since. Infact we have not seen one red day since that bottoming process back at the start of FEBRUARY!!

Well, maybe we are due for some sort of a red day, maybe one or two, however what is important here is that we are only about 10 - 20 points away from the old highs, (see rectangle below on chart) and that will act as some sort of resistance going forward.

It is a holiday on the market on Monday today, so its probably a good time to take a break, and re-energize the batteries for next week. We are either going to find significant resistance at this 1850 level, or we will blast right through it. My guess is that it will not be the latter for some reason. But we shall see. :-)



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dow jones transports update

dow jones transports update

dow jones transports update

So far in 2014 the market has not been performing very well.

The leader of the market or the dow jones transports is an interesting chart right now. If you see this chart below it clearly shows that every time we hit the 50 period Exponential moving average line we stall. So far over the last few years it has been somewhat of a line in the sand.

So it is uncanny we have stopped dead cold back at this line. The next couple of days will be critical for the bulls and bears and to give the market more clarity.

dow jones transports update

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rally under pressure

rally under pressure

rally under pressure

Make no mistake about it, the nasdaq with troubles in CHINA and earnings, and with the whisper of tapering back on the table in the US, and the nasdaq is again under a bit of pressure. As you can see, we are back close to the 3 1/2 trend line, and I am not really surprised this has been holding pretty well.

There are a lot of people, blog writers and pundits saying this is start of a crash, however we have been hearing that for years now and still the market kept headed higher. So it is too early to call a crash here.  2-3 down days on the market is not a crash, I am still under the impression we are still in a bull market, and even in bull markets prices cannot just go up in a straight line.

Now at the end of JANUARY we can see the market has basically done nothing more than go sideways and it is a slow daily grind. My guess is this will continue. However prepare for headwinds the middle of this week when the US FED meeting takes place. Maybe they have a big announcement up their sleeve, who knows, but remember last time this took place the market was really whippy so do tread carefully this week and remember your stops.

rally under pressure

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financial sector update

financial sector update

financial sector update

Right now the market is taking a short break we believe. As you can see the telltale sign is the financial sector! As of today the financial sector has broken its nice rising support line, and MACD is still on a SELL SIGNAL. This is not a good sign for the short term, so further selling could be witnessed in the coming days / week.

We have been trading in a range for weeks and finally after a day of heavy selling in earning weeks, the financial did cop a beating and broke down out of this range (to the downside). There is a possibility we go down to 21, as today was a significant day for the bears.

financial sector update

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Tussle on the market

Tussle on the market

A Tussle on the market is occuring

The SPX did have a nice day up, but the supply and demand at -23 is telling people to be cool and calm before the TAPER news in a few days. We have been in a massive to and fro on the market, as in a 30 pts range on the S&P and the market is sure having a hard time trying to get out of this region. When it does, we will probably see the bigger move this month. Until then.....

spx chart

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investor sentiment - investor sentiment at the moment

investor sentiment - investor sentiment at the moment

investor sentiment at the moment is at all time extremes, now this does not mean the market is going to crash, and it does not mean the market CANT go higher from here, in fact we are still in a bull market but this is a chart that is doing the rounds again amongst blogs and forums.

The US government and their massive printing off of money and investor sentiment at extremes mean that one day, things are going to end in tragedy. Not tomorrow, not next week but eventually things will not be able to keep travelling along they way they are right now.

EXAMPLE: Think of a person who has a credit card, and that credit card debt is $10,000 so what this person does is sign up with other credit cards to pay the first one off, which means clearing one debt with another debt. It may resolve the problem quickly, but has not actually fixed the problem entirely.

That is what we are talking about here. Eventually QE injections of money into the market will not work, and it will end in tears for many. Again we are not saying this to make you panic, we are just telling you that fundamentally this is what the govt had planned before the very first round of quantitative easing, and so far their plan has not failed them!!

investor sentiment

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