Web Statistics The Sentiment Trader
Showing posts with label stock market crash coming. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock market crash coming. Show all posts

Sunday, 29 April 2018

A shift to safety trades could burn investors - A shift to safety trades could burn investors


A shift to safety trades could burn investors

"A shift to safety trades could burn investors" 

in the newsA shift to safety trades could burn investors? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader saw PNC Financial's Jeffrey Mills has a message for investors: Resist the urge to play it safe.

The firm's top investment strategist is concerned jitters are driving investors into less profitable or worse — losing — areas of the market.

Right now the market is not looking the best, and its not only that, you can see the lower highs being put in, is really a troubling sign here, and its not the little guys on the backfoot, it has some bigger FUNDS shaking in their boots, look at the dow JONES charts, its defiantly skating on thin ice here. 


Folks may have an inclination to do drastic things in portfolios to insulate themselves from higher volatility when in fact we think the backdrop would actually portend the exact opposite.

"It's key to understand that the call for higher volatility doesn't have to be a call for poor market performance," 

His hunch appeared to be timely. According to the Investment Company Institute, investors yanked the most money out of U.S. stocks in February since the 2008 financial crisis. The data suggest market participants are getting increasingly nervous amid whipsaw action in stocks.

"Investors, and really humans in general, have this inclination to try to make themselves feel safer,"  think about folks who are afraid to fly. They actually choose to drive even though driving is exponentially more dangerous."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index are now are essentially flat for the year. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is up 3 percent year-to-date.

Economic fundamentals and solid earnings will push stocks higher this year even though valuations remain elevated — adding it's the wrong time to get majorly defensive. The Dow may not soar 25 percent like in 2017, but he predicts the S&P 500 will likely grow between 4 and 6 percent over the next 12 months.

Right now, there are some smart money shifting into financials, energy and technology stocks. We are not sure if this is key, but we do like to watch what the smart money is doing, and where they are going. 

We don't think valuations are as extended as maybe some people would think given the run, If you look at the percentage of companies in the tech sector above their 200-day moving average, it's actually some of the best breadth we see across sectors.

fixed income and cash, as sectors that could burn investors with poor returns in the coming months, when compared to stocks. Either way, things are getting nervous in the market, and we will share our SECRETS and findings HERE with our VIP members each day. You can get your FREE 30 Day trial here. 

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Thursday, 28 September 2017

september stock market analysis - september stock market analysis


september stock market analysis - september stock market analysis

"september stock market analysis - september stock market analysis" 

in the news september stock market analysis - september stock market analysis? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader show a very interesting chart today, just like in VIP members here  <= saw.  The healthiness of this rally is due to the fact that sustained areas of near these highs is because of the healthy rotation of sector to sector to sector. So there is a really very reliable chart that our members can look at, that is very very valuable here. This chart is one of the ones that everyone needs to see that will blow you mind! This shows we have never had a full year on the stock market, when the S&P 500 has had such a small draw down as we have had in 2017. Have a look at the chart below.....

All the way to the right side in orange. That is how small the max draw downs this year in 2017. A little bit more than 3%, and if it finishes the year this way, it will be the smallest ever seen since the year 1914. Wow! Some very good stats too look at. 

What is even more interesting is that people will point at this chart and say we have to get a mean reversion and we have to see a large correction soon. Sure! I can see that side of the argument. And sooner or later the volatility has to show up, and sure this is very bizarre and abnormal. But just because we get to these extreme readings, that does not mean you have to take everything off and we are bound to see a HUGE crash or correction. So its important to keep that in mind. The world does not work that way!!!

So I would not take this as a signal that we are about to see devastation coming to the market in the next month or leading into Xmas. Sure we can see dips, and blips coming our way, but what this is saying its been an incredible year for stocks, and profits, and for each and everyone of us to be careful going forward. 

We think September going forward is going to be a proxy for the entire year. When you think about all the challenges we have had this year, coming into September it has not caused us to dip or crash like some out there have been saying. There is a lot of resilience with the market here. Here is the chart of the MAX draw downs we have seen this year. Its very tiny. 

 This is quite interesting. 


max drawdown stock market



Our Members here => VIP members here  Have noticed One other factor that we should remember which is, when the year started, we had a very surprising election result. And there were many investors who were concerned about what was on the horizon, and with trump in office, they thought that would be a very bad thing, and they took money off the table. 

Although there is a lot of bearishness out there, there is the Russell up 5%, there is the banks up 3% and energy up 8%. And on and on it goes. 

One other factor that we should remember is, when the year started, it become up a very surprising election result. And there were many investors who were concerned about what was on the horizon, and with trump in office, they thought that would be a very bad thing, and taken money off the table. So through the course of this year, we have had good quarter after good quarter and decent earnings as well. People who have not been fully invested have had to put some money back in the market the last few months, and again this week, because they do not want to be left behind. 

Does this chart we put up [see above] make us here at sentiment trader nervous? well, sure! It does! Everyday makes us nervous going forward. For the market to remain resilient in the face of negative headline after negative headline that could have caused a bigger type of correction. Also as you read this we have gone 455 days without a meaningful 5% correction. That has not happened for about 50 years or so. So sure it makes us nervous, but there is not reason to panic. 

Does that mean the next quarter and earnings are going to drop the ball and fall off the table. Well, we do not think that is going to be the case. 

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Wednesday, 16 August 2017

Is there a lightning speed stock market sell-off in August - Is there a lightning speed stock market sell-off in August


Is there a lightning speed’ stock market sell-off in August

"Is there a lightning speed’ stock market sell-off in August

in the news - Is there a lightning speed’ stock market sell-off in August? What this all about..... See below. 

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Is there a lightning speed stock market sell-off in August
Is there a lightning speed stock market sell-off in August

With the recent bull market rally, market analysts are ademate that stock can continue to drive higher than we have ever seen in the history of the stock market. Is this true, have recent earnings been good enough to take us and soar past recent highs, or is this positively just a house of straw with nothing to show and ready to be blown over in a gust of wind?

The months of August and September are notorious for dramatic declines in the stock market, and there are a select few analysts who are sending out a dire warning investors to be mentally and financially ready when if it does eventuate!.


Stocks fell last week after a combination of weak retail earnings and bank stock performance spooked some investors.

"In the dog days of summer, we can get hit with lightning speed sell-offs, if we go back over 40 years, August and September have been notorious for seeing large and dramatic sell offs in the market. 

Rather than join the masses of scared investors in the next downturn, some analysts are seeing the other side of the coin. Meaning they are recommending clients to view it as a buying opportunity. That means having some cash available, and stock ideas on hand that could be put to work in a "cool and methodical" way.

Big wall st, guru type investors have not been spooked by the sell-off last week. There are charitable trust took action and purchased stocks like Nvidia and Activision Blizzard on weakness. These are just some ideas going forward while market constituents watch the ebbs and flow with the market. 

Despite the fact that everyone was freaking out, the positive backdrop for stocks didn't change. We have low inflation, low interest rates, good earnings and a weak dollar. So astute investors realize that sort of market environment can be very healthy in these dire times. Sometimes you have to look past the trees to see the forest!. 

Low inflation means that earnings for companies could be worth more in the future. often considered by some as to be a huge wrapped up Christmas gift, as high inflation could erode the long-term value case for equities.



Additionally, low interest rates can act as a positive catalyst to spur business in the U.S., and prompt investors to buy stocks with strong dividends. There are no guarantees but the role of this article is to try and help readers weigh up the positives and negatives and make informed decisions from that. 

Regardless of the positive implications of interest rates or inflation, some traders still have reservations.The first on the list would be that Congress is not in session currently. In this perspective, both sides of the aisle are at odds with President Trump. Thus, the market could move higher while Congress is not in session, and then be impacted negatively when it reconvenes in September. Hedge fund managers do watch the events in congress to make important decisions with their trades. So that might mean the stock market sits on shaky ground the next few months. 

Other worries on market analysts list were technology stocks, the recent bounce in transportation stocks and interest rates.


Ultimately, a good strategy going into the worst two months or the year, might be for investors to start selling the worst stocks in their portfolio that have managed to go up as a part of the broad rally and have some cash on hand for the next downturn.

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Monday, 12 December 2016

stock market crash 2017 - will the stock market crash soon


stock market crash 2017 - will the stock market crash soon

"stock market crash 2017 - will the stock market crash soon" 

in the news stock market crash 2017 - will the stock market crash soon? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader keep hearing Many economists are saying that after an exuberant stock market rally, now is the time to take heed and that the stock market has not crashed for many years. According to the seasonal charts, stock market crashes occur about every 8 or 9 years, so since the last panic sell off in the stockmarket was 2008, we are now overdue. 

There will come a point where the music will stop for investors and people will panic to get out of the stock market. Of course we do not know when, or even how, we just know if you study the stock market, that sell offs and crashes almost always happen when people do not expect it. No one really likes them, but just know they do occur. There is no real reason to panic; we just have to be aware of the stock market environment anyway. Especially here at the end of 2016.

If you can admit stock market crashes do actually occur and the next one is coming, that is a positive sign and you can move on and protect yourself the right way. As humans we must recognize that in good times, we must always be willing to prepare and save for the difficult times. 

No one can predict the timing of market correction. They are sudden, even the crash of 1987 came without much warning. Do you remember that one.....??


Here are several ways you can protect yourself in case a stock market crash does occur. 


1. Bear Markets do actually happen. 

Yes the stock market is an entity unto itself. Markets go up for a period of time, and then they go down. What happens to people is that after a period of the market going up for several years, they buy in, hoping this trend will continue only to lose out, as the trend changes, and they become hopeful the rally will continue. You must realise Bear markets can occur for weeks, months or even years. 


2.  Follow a 5-Year Rule

A good rule is not to listen to idiot investors and never invest money you are going to need over the next 5 years. That is a big no no. This is important advice for people who are going to retire, and who are also counting on their investments for daily expenses.  You want to try to avoid this situation all together, if you can. Retirees who have to sell stocks and bonds during a bear market to meet their living arrangement are not really going to live a very good life. Learn to plan ahead. 

3. Keep Out of Debt

This may come as a surprise. But it has nothing to do with investing. As humans we take finances without much care at all. If put a lot of money in the stock market, and it falls 20% and you lose a significant amount of money, and you are already in debt. This is going to add to your problems as you get older. Especially if you are already in huge amounts of debt.  

In my experience people who have little debt, relative to how much they earn, are more likely to weather from a volatile stock market or a bear market or god forbid a horrific crash, where the market might drop say 20%. Ensure you are keeping debt to a minimum before putting on a blindfold and lumping cash in the stock market.

In the end, you have to remember no one is a psychic. No one knows when the bottom of the stock market will occur and the exact top. If you try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top, prepare to be ruined as an active investor. 

What you can do this year, is to simply educate yourself on market cycles, and read literary works from market timing authors that could help you be more in tune with what is happening with the stock market or global markets. This will help keep you in check if a downturn was to occur and to be in a better position to take proactive steps before the new year. 

Normally if you are an active investor you must remain calm, and realise that over time the stock market is designed to go up, and not down. But be that as it may the stock market never goes up in a straight line and you must be able to work around an event like the stock market being cut in half during a bear market. 

While that is very extreme, it simple comes back to the saying on wall st – “prepare for the worst, but hope for the best” if you do this, you will be able to make money in both the short term and longer term. 

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Thursday, 21 April 2016

People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way

People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way


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People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way 



People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way
People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way



People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way

The Dow industrials and the S&P 500 may be hurtling toward record highs, but the American people, whose love affair with stocks has understandably waned since the Great Recession, look to be more hesitant than ever to buy into the rally.

According to Gallup, only 52% say they currently have money invested in the stock market, matching the lowest ownership rate in the poll’s 19-year history.

In 2007, just before the markets were crushed by the collapse of the housing market, ownership hit a high of 65%. Stocks have recovered nicely since then, but it appears as if investor psyches still have plenty of healing to do.



People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way





Drilling into the numbers reveals that middle-class Americans are the most skittish when it comes to the market. Almost three out of four of those with incomes ranging from $30,000 to $74,999 said they invested money in stocks in 2007. That number has dropped to half, which is a much more severe decline than in the other income brackets.


People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way


It does seem the Boomersare leaving the Market in droves. The Market will see lows rarely hit and for a long period of time. Boomers took the Market up, now as they retire they will withdraw their safe money that could affect the market. Its an event Rich Dad, was talking about back in 2002. That it could take the market down. You can’t fight major economic shifts~! Now if the Market would go ahead and have a major Bear out, Boomers will be out and a new period can begin.

Greed and fear are great motivators. When the headlines read "DOW up 10 percent" or "DOW up 20 percent," the middle class buys in. No one wants to miss out on the next 10 or 20 percent move up.

On the other hand, when the headlines read "DOW down 10 percent" or "DOW down 20 percent," the middle class cuts and runs. Its like they PANIC..... No one wants to risk the next 10 or 20 percent move down.

The column states that the biggest decline in stock ownership is age group 18-34. Young people are impatient: they want positive results right away, and have no stomach for a 20-30 year investment plan.

At the expense of the middle class and poor. Compassion?

Many people got out of the market in 08 until we got rid of the fool.  Now the market has been like a steam tread rallying higher. 

Gee, I wonder if it's because 5 years of gains can be LOST in 3 hours, and if your mutual fund prices at the end of the day, it's too late???  What's the old saying, it takes the stairs up, but the elevator down! Well, lets not get carried away just yet, as the market has not really done much at all but act like a merry go round at the town fair. :-)

However, there is a saying to remember....Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice , shame on me.

Source : mw.com.


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Sunday, 17 April 2016

stock market crash 2017 - ted cruz speech



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stock market crash 2017 - ted cruz speech 



stock market crash 2017 - ted cruz speech
stock market crash 2017 - ted cruz speech



stock market crash 2017 - ted cruz speech

So these morons who crow on like a parrot will do absolutely anything for a vote, but recently in a TED CRUZ SPEECH, Ted told the interviewer that the stock market is destined to crash.

So before we go laughing at him, and throwing these statements out into thin air for more fans, and extra votes, we decided to look further into some of his allegations

The Federal Reserve's excessively easy monetary policies are "playing games with money" and are an ineffective way to "juice the system," GOP presidential candidate Ted Cruz told CNBC on Friday. Such actions "create bubbles," he said.

"The Fed has, for those with assets, driven up stock prices," he said in a wide-ranging "Squawk Box" interview four days before the New York primary, which has 95 delegates at stake.

"But that's not built on anything real. It's not built on an increase in the intrinsic value of those assets," he said. "That's just playing games with money, which means a crash will be coming."

Cruz said Fed policy should not target a strong or a weak dollar. He said the U.S. needs monetary policy stability to end the dollar "roller coaster."

"I think we're far better having a rules-based monetary policy, ideally with some tie to gold, so that you have a stable dollar," he said. "So you know when you're investing a dollar today, you know that the dollar is going to keep a consistent worth."

Wall Street provides 'valuable' service

Cruz also said he believes Wall Street firms fill an "important and valuable" role, "providing capital for new enterprises, helping the economic system operate."

"But it shouldn't be the case that Wall Street plays in rigged casinos, 'heads I win, tails I win,' where Wall Street can gamble with other people's money and the government bails them out if they lose," said Cruz, whose wife, Heidi Cruz, worked at Goldman Sachs.

"If you're taking risks, you should bear the consequences of the risk. And the taxpayer shouldn't be on the hook to bail you out," the Texas senator said.

When her husband decided to run for president, Heidi Cruz took an unpaid leave of absence from Goldman.

Politico reports that Ted Cruz plans to host a fundraising event on Monday with bankers, traders and Wall Street lawyers at the Harvard Club in midtown Manhattan. Cruz has already received $12 million in support from the financial industry, according to Politico.

Cruz, who has blasted the big banks, told he has no problem taking campaign contributions from Wall Street. "We'll take money from anyone," he said.


You can see the stock market is in trouble?

Well that statement could be a bit fresh, as we have posted a chart of the nasdaq monthly chart below. What we have seen is one of the biggest bull markets, ever witnessed since the stock market started. We have been going up for several years now, and there is no sign of a crash just yet. In fact the wild swings we have seen right now mean the market is just going sideways, or taking a breather. It does not seem this BULL MARKET is over yet. Have a look at the chart below........



'You can't force businesses to stay here'

Addressing the issue of corporate inversions, when American companies buy foreign firms in order to reincorporate in more favorable tax havens abroad, Cruz said the Obama administration's new rules to discourage the practice are "entirely backwards."

"We're seeing corporate inversions because of massive regulations and taxes are driving companies overseas," he said. "You can't force businesses to stay here, as the Obama Treasury Department is doing. You create an environment that businesses want to be here.

"In four years, we're going to be back here talking about corporate inversions," Cruz continued, "and it'll be Europe and Asia talking about inversions of companies coming to America because the business environment is so good."

'My No. 1 priority' as president

Cruz said his top priority as president would be to foster growth because a slow economy makes problems unsolvable. "My number one priority as president will be economic growth."

When meaningful tax reform and regulatory reform were instituted in the past, the result has been "record shattering growth," he said. "We have been trapped in stagnation for the last seven years."

As president, Cruz said he'd lift regulatory and tax burdens from small businesses.

Under his tax plan, Cruz said every individual above certain income thresholds would pay a 10 percent flat tax.

On the business side, he said he'd institute a 16 percent flat tax on companies. "The effect is an incredible catalyst for job creation and wages going up and bringing jobs back to America."

Minimum wage increases cost jobs, Cruz said, though he added it's within a state's rights to decide on wage floors. "The next time you go to a fast food restaurant and you starting ordering on an iPad, you're seeing the minimum wage. A teenager got fired."

Cruz, who has advocated in the past to shut down the government over budget issues, said he would be willing as president to compromise with Democrats, but not at the expense making a situation worse.

He blamed the GOP leadership on Capitol Hill for capitulating to President Barack Obama.

In the race for 1,237 delegates, Cruz trails Donald Trump by 756 to 545. Ohio Gov, John Kasich has 143 delegates, according to NBC News.

On Thursday night, the Texas senator received a cool reception at a New York City Republican fundraiser, following his derogatory suggestion in January that Trump, the billionaire real estate mogul with strong ties to the Big Apple, has "New York" values.

Ahead of Tuesday's primary, Cruz was No. 3 in the Real Politics average of the latest state polls with 17.9 percent support. Trump was at 53.8 percent, followed by Ohio Gov.John Kasich with 21.9 percent.

In a Wall Street Journal op-ed posted on the website Thursday night, Trump blasted Cruz and Republican elites, saying they were hiding behind the delegate selection rules to ignore the will of the voters.  -    Source : Cnbc.


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Friday, 28 March 2014

stock market crash every 7 years

stock market crash every 7 years

stock market crash every 7 years

Does the stock market crash every 7 years ?

Well nothing is set in stone, but be that as it may there is what I can see a 7 year cycle occuring on the market right now. See the chart below. => I GO MORE IN DEPTH IN OUR VIP ELITE GROUP HERE!!!!!

stock market crash every 7 years
stock market crash every 7 years

As you can see,  if you look at the chart above you can see that the stock market has come into some trouble every 7-8 years over the last 20 years. So this is an interesting statistical if you look at this sort of thing, or you are an active trader right now.

I guess, in my own opinion no one really does have a crystal ball, to tell what happens on the market today, tomorrow next week or next year. But what we do have is history on our side and as a student of history its very interesting, that historical patterns tend to repeat themselves over and over again, and it is the cornerstone to technical analysis.

If stock market crash every 7 years, will this happen soon? Well your guess is as good as mine there, but it is something to look at when the time is right. With all the tapering going on right now and also Janet Yellen starting to sneak the words interest rates, and increase in interest rates coming, then things could get interesting. But until then, we keep our nose to the grindstone.


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