market wanes higher

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market wanes higher

"market wanes higher" 

in the news market wanes higher? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader can see that there might be a  'supervolcano' waiting to erupt beneath a seemingly 'beautiful' market.... ==> We have been warning about this HERE in our VIP DIAMOND newsletter <==

A 'herd mentality' has driven up valuations, the portfolio manager warns.

Warning: A correction in the market is "inevitable" and there are three key factors that could spark chaos on Wall Street, according statistics. 

We liken this market to Yellowstone National Park's famous supervolcano, which many believe is close to eruption. Stocks continued to hit record highs on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting its 8th consecutive all-time high.

Even though [the market] looks beautiful—setting new highs, good momentum, and earnings have been coming in strong, [there are] things to worry about," as there is several pieces of news we much watch in the coming weeks. 

Aside from the rise of passive investing, which is creating a "herd mentality" among investors, he also believed that the earnings picture isn't telling the whole story.

"In the 18 months ending in June, we saw companies that had no earnings, they were losing money, outperform those that were making money," We can highlight many stocks' performances this year may not be reflective of their revenues.

But the biggest threat to the market rally, we think is the current valuation levels of stocks.

SENTIMENT TRADER went back to 1994 and researched team data that said [that if we look at cyclically adjusted P/E, one out of two times] the market was down in the next 12 months, and about one out of three times it was down more than 10 percent.


DOW JONES CHART :We have broken a record on dow too. We have not had a red day or sell off for about 2 week now. WOW...This is quite interesting and incredible. 

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SENTIMENT TRADER notes that when valuations have been this high, 10-year returns on the S&P 500 have been either in the single digits or negative 99 percent of the time.

It doesn't mean that we'll see a volcanic eruption in the immediate future, and these market peaks take a long time, but we're definitely in the latter stages of this market advance, We say we are going to see the inevitable correction, we just do not know when that will be. 

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spx weekly chart - spx weekly chart update

spx weekly chart update

Many weeks ago, we did predict the market to go up higher. (est 1500 spx)

For proof.... ==> VIEW THIS POST HERE

We were saying 1500 was coming, and believe it or not, on Friday, we got within 2 pts of that happening. LOL.



You can see below on the AI sentiment that the S&P which is obviously EXTREMELY overbought, is still on the bullish side, or has room to move higher if it wants to!

ai sentiment

Taking a look at the S&P 500 daily chart, we have a 'double confirmation' the bulls are still in charge. 

1) We have an inverted head and shoulders pattern that has formed back in OCT 2012 and we broke out of this early 2013. 

2) We have broken the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders and since early JANUARY 2013 we have been travelling in a nice upwards channel, that has not yet been broken to the downside. 

spx daily chart

Even in December we said not to fall in love with the downside, and that was corrrect. There were many traders caught short in early 2013. 

The summation chart is also another good market breadth indicator that gives us a good analogy on the overall sentiment of the stockmarket and indicies. Even though there are many bears who have been calling a top the last few months, the summation goes against all of these pundits, and has been clearly saying we are still in a BUY THE DIP kind of market. 

summation chart

Yes, I understand that right now, things are overbought, and I do agree with that whole heatedly. Yes eventually the market will top out, However it is important to be patient and trade what we see, and not what we think may happen. We read charts first and trade off of them and leave emotions in the background.



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risk on risk off - is it risk on or risk off

weeeeeeee! Up We Gooooooo!!!! LOL :P

The S&P is up over 70 points in 3 days. WOW! IT has been a complete BEAR SMOKING to the upside here.

We warned our readers to not fall in love with the downside, when we were in low volume holiday trading and now you can see why :-)

Today was a good day in the market. MOC we had almost 7 billion volume to buy. Even though the markets are overextended, they can remain that way for a while. Bears have really been creamed in the last few days, and probably lost all hope. LOL :->

What is happening right now, is that we get all these little FALSE sell offs, and that has been tricking the bears. They have been trying to test the market on the sell side, they put in their buys stops, we rally up higher, then their stops go off like a rocket and that gives us more of a boost higher!

When you have NATURAL CASH buying or buyers in the market, like we do have right now they send us up higher and keep us triggering the buy programs and or buy stops up overhead. That's what I saw many weeks ago, and warned our readers and that is why we keep ripping to the upside.

Over the last 4 days, smart money has put $5.5 billion dollars to work in the broader markets. In laymen's terms this means in the short term, the markets are most likely to go HIGHER. YES!

I guess we can say that there is a little bit of risk here also at the moment. The higher the market goes up without any serious pullbacks, at some point we will get that pull back and it will probably be a good sized one.

Now we are above our important levels of 1440 and 1450, it means that we are possibly making our way to the 1485 - 1490 now, so prepare yourself. :-)

Already our members are off to a flying start for 2013, and we are only a few days in. :-)

Happy trading :-)



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Bonds Building - Market Still Tired

Well another red day on the market as we hinted at in the ( VIP ELITE GROUP HERE )

After a few weeks of bonds being very messy, alot of the bonds traders are jumping for joy as the chart has cleaned up a bit. Have a look at the weekly chart on BONDS below. It seems to be forming a bullish flag at the moment. It has not broken yet, and is only "looking" like a bullish flag, because it must break out of this pattern first for more buying to come in. That will put even more pressure on the market.

With the strength in bonds, the market (nasdaq) has now broken out of its upwards channel and the bottom resistance line, and continued down today on WEDNESDAY. If we look back it is obvious that we have not see 3 or 4 down HEAVY down days in a row, so my guess is that the bears still have the upper hand, but there will might be some sort of bounce coming, but we will probably have to wait till next week to see this happen, and also see how bad the bulls want it! :-)

The sentiment right now is still with the bears, and our breadth indicators are confirming that. Happy trading :-)

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