Bearish flag showing

I was awake at 3am this morning and witness some pretty heavy sell stops going off one after the other today, and it seems that they were not finished today, and we are most likely to see more of the same either today or possibly later in the week.

Also we have broken out of a bearish flag on the DAILY SPX CHART so the bears are still winning here, and giving alot of weight to the market right now! OUCH!

bearish flag on SPX chart

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Is The Market Really Crashing

Is The Market Really Crashing ?

Having a look around the blogosphere this morning I was quite alarmed at what I was reading. There seems to be some so called analysts and news media sites calling the sell off we have been witness too the start of a bigger crash and or meltdown on the market.

WOW! I think these are big statements but would like to take the time to help traders young and old as to what I think ('IN MY HUMBLE OPINION' - of course) is really going on right now in a few simple sentences.

Before I do that, it is important to show you a chart, so lets go to the most damaged indicie chart right now the DOW JONES DAILY CHART.....

Is The Market Really Crashing

As you can see on the chart above we have gone from 15500 all the way to the 14976 level. So in saying that we have sold off just over 500 points as you read this. No where near a crash, that is for sure.

In fact, in terms of the huge move up we saw back in JUNE - AUGUST we have only taken off about half of those profits so far. So again, it is nothing really to sneeze at.

Here are some other important NOTES to REMEMBER :-

* We have rallied quite extensively in 2013 and profit taking is always going to occur.

* We are currently in a BULL MARKET and no where does it state bull markets must go UP IN A STRAIGHT LINE. 

* There has been no let-up in the 'taper tantrum' that has demolished stocks across the emerging markets in recent months.

* The fed has not issued their TAPERING statement this will happen NEXT MONTH.

* Spiking interest rates is putting pressure on the overall market.

* This is AUGUST and notoriously known to be low volume, and prone for corrections over the decades as smart money and bigger traders are on holiday, and totally out of the market.

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Sentiment Trader Spot on Again

Sentiment Trader Spot on Again!

Yes! First of all I urge you to go and read this post here.

=> SOUND THE ALARMS!  Posted a few weeks ago. We warned the market could be topping out.

Here is a chart of the post back then, The S&P 500 daily chart.

Our Quote  :

1) EVERYONE IS STARTING TO GET UBER BULLISH, AND THINKS THE MARKET WILL NEVER COME DOWN AGAIN!

2) THOSE THAT LOST MONEY IN THE 2008 ARE NOW GETTING THEIR CONFIDENCE BACK AND THINKING ABOUT PUTTING ALL THEIR MONEY BACK IN THE GLOBAL MARKETS BECAUSE THEY DONT WANT TO MISS A BIGGER RALLY COMING?

3) A LOT OF TRADERS & NEWS KEEPS GETTING MORE BULLISH BY THE DAY. 


============================

 We did warn and spotted patterns, that many people were overlooking. 

Today 16th of August 2013 Have a look at the chart of the DOW today, we crashed down pretty hard. This chart is looking unhealthy to say the least. 

You have to love Technical Analysis and congrats TO OUR VIP MEMBERS HERE that did really well.



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spx bearish flag showing after FOMC

spx bearish flag showing after FOMC

Our VIP ELITE GROUP HERE!  Got plenty of warning about what was coming today.  The TRIN reading was pretty much giving it away.

Todays FOMC meeting was a chance for the bears to really come back and grit their teeth so to speak. The Market sold off hard down to the low 1620's and right now if you look at the chart there seems to have been a bearish flag that has formed.

If we break the 1615 level on the S&P that could spell real trouble and the market is not looking very healthy here.

spx chart - bearish flag playing out ?

Since the middle of May, if you remember back Dummy boy Bernanke and his cartmen stubled and stammered on congress hill and hinted about the end of QE and stimulus into the market. Today was just reiterating that.

News is nothing more than boring for me, and this came out in the charts first. This pattern now, or I would think it is a high probability bearish flag (meaning there is a strong chance of more movements to the downside) could play out now, as retail traders try to decipher the news, while we just trade the charts. :-) ** insert cheesy grin here **

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nikkei crash - nikkei stock market

nikkei crash - nikkei stock market

nikkei crash - nikkei stock market

Well...ok, I admit this is not a crash. It was just the nikkei being put in its place after an exuberant rally.

Just weeks ago Japan had to INJECT over $19 billion Dollars into the financial system.

Today was horrific today, asn the nikkei stock market crashed. Right now as you read this the nikkei 225 is down down 1500 points from its highs and down 1150 (over 7%) from yesterday's close.

High-to-low this is the biggest drop in 26 months... and down 1000 points from its earlier highs.

All the time it is just the quadrillion JPY second-largest bond market in the world that is experiencing volatility on an unprecedented scale, the BoJ and her partners in crime are more than willing to 'officially' say "please do not worry." But when the equity market - that barometer of everything good and holy about Abenomics starts to crater, you can bet the excuses will come fast and furious.

Today's drop of over 1500 points (over 9%) from the earlier highs is the largest drop for the Nikkei 225 since March 2011. The Nikkei 225 just lost the all-powerful 15,000 level and is suffering another VaR shock with a 6-sigma move today. In fact given the price levels this drop is on par with the post-Lehman moves in 2008.

The question now (with US equity futures also fading fast -20 points and JPY crosses getting hammered) is how will the Japanese risk appetite for peripheral European crap hold up with this crimping in their plan as Japanese bonds and stocks dump?


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Jimmy Swaggart Sermon On Shorting this market

THIS IS THE FRUSTRATION OF THE BEARS RIGHT NOW ON THE MARKET.

SEE BELOW!

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Is This Time Different - Is This A Dip Or A Sell Off

Is This Time Different? Is This A Dip Or A Sell Off

Dow down 52 points, but S&P 500 up 5 points — huh? IBM is down over $14, responsible for roughly 100 Dow points.

So what is happening? just yesterday we put out a MAJOR UPDATE to our  VIP SUBSCRIBERS - Download it here!     We told them what we thought is happening on the market. 

spx chart

Everyone wants to know, Is this time different? The meager three percent pullback in the S&P 500 at the end of February made a lot of traders believe that any pullback should be bought, but there has been a lot of discussion this week that this pullback might be different. The following arguments are being batted around:

1) the technicals are worse: this week has seen two days (Monday and Wednesday) where 90 percent of the volume was on the downside on very large volume; this has led many to question whether we are still in an up trend in the markets;

2) the macros are different: March and early April economic numbers (Philly Fed) have been weak (this is becoming a regular Spring event);

3) tech is in trouble; Fairchild Semi and Sandisk had notable drops yesterday, IBM is down four percent this morning on its earning miss, and Apple is at a new low 52-week low.

However, it's a little early to draw any conclusions from earnings, other than tech disappointment. Early bank reports (JPMorgan and Wells Fargo) were good, but Bank of America disappointed, and multi-industry company reports have been mixed. General Electric was fair but CEO Jeff Immelt noted ongoing weakness in Europe.

As of this morning,104 companies have reported (21 percent of the S&P 500), with 67 percent beating expectations — slightly above the norm. Earnings are 2.0 percent higher than the same period last year, with revenue outpacing last year by 3.2 percent, according to S&P Capital IQ. However, guidance has been cautious to

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dow jones transportation - Chart update

dow jones transportation - Chart update

Below is an update of the dow jones transportation chart.

You have to remember the dow jones transportation is the leader of the market, and look what is happening to the trannie. It has busted a longer term uptrend line in the sand, and does not look healthy at all right now.

Our warning is to...........(members only).....

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dow jones transportation - Chart update

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Spx update - spx weekly update

spx weekly update

The market sold off into the weekend with talks about North Korea on the verge of war and the spillover from the Cyrus crisis.

Unemployment still remains a big problem and the market did not like that at all, and we still have a gloomy outlook. However when we take a look at the chart below, we can see the market even through the bashing, and bad news has remain pretty buoyant. Perhaps people are jumping to conclusions too soon, and we do not have a big reason to panic just yet.

It is clear the market is totally dislocated away from any bad news at the moment as a whole. There have been a few blips and blops along the way, however the market still has strength attached to its name.

spx weekly update

As you can see, we are still in a major bullish uptrend, and things are not looking too bad in the bigger picture. A few months back we even included the bull / bear ratio chart that convinced us we are still in a bull market. When you take a look at this chart you can see why.

This week was not good for the market, that is for sure. Further more it could even be the start of a much larger correction as we have been hinting. But for now the leader of the market the dow jones transportation average still remains above critical support and above the major averages.

It would be wise to monitor these support levels in the coming weeks, as a breach of these levels would not bode well for the markets.  But until that happens there is no real reason to throw hands up in the air and panic.


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Dow Transports Fall Hard—A Sign Market Rally Could Be Cracking

Dow Transports Fall Hard—A Sign Market Rally Could Be Cracking

Today the Dow Transports Fall Hard—A Sign Market Rally Could Be Cracking...

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Lets Take a look at the dow Transports chart. As you can see, the leader of the market is looking very bad. The S&P 500 has just started to crack, however the dow jones transports have given us a few days notice that something was in the woodwork...

dow jones transports

Its seems that the major uptrend line has been broken. As we have been saying for a few weeks now, the bears could be back.

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From : CNBC

The sharp selloff in the Dow Transportation index this week is causing some strategists to wonder what is happening.

The Transportation index—which led the market higher in the last few months—surged 13 percent for the first quarter, while the Dow Jones climbed 11 percent in the same period. The Transports, considered by some to be an economic bellwether are up 22 percent since the market rally began in November, while the Dow is up 16 percent and the S&P 500 is up 14.8 percent.

But this week, the Dow Transports declined more than 1 percent each day and broke below the 50-day moving average in a third day of selling Wednesday. The last time the index dropped 1 percent or more a day, in a three day period, was back in July.

By Wednesday, the broader stock market joined the sell off, logging its worst one-day performance in over a month. The losses came a day after the Dow and S&P 500 both closed at record highs.

Stocks continue to hit new highs daily, but are the good times about to end? The FMHR traders, discuss. Also, Larry MacDonald of Newedge and Savita Subramanian of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, share their market outlooks.The initial divergence in the indexes earlier this week was a red flag for traders, who also were watching an outsized drop in the small cap Russell 2000 index. The Russell is down 3.5 percent for the week so far. The Dow Transports are down nearly 4 percent, while the Dow is down just 0.2 percent and the S&P 500 is off nearly 1 percent.

For Dow Theory enthusiasts, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation index need to move in lockstep to reach new highs or lows. A separation implies that the market will decline to its former trading range.

 "Given the fact that the small caps and transports have played a major role in the advance of this rally over the last few months, this is something to watch and could represent a potential turning point or lead to some churning in the days ahead," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial Group.

But with the growing number of traders and strategists expecting a market pullback on the heels of the robust first-quarter rally, the latest action in small caps and transports have some wondering if the steepness of the declines could be signs that cracks are forming in the recent rally.

"Trying to predict when the market is going to pullback is hard…but the market has had a significant advance so it would only be natural and healthy to digest some of the gains as investors look for the next catalyst," said Sheldon.

Meanwhile, some experts downplayed the concerns, saying history shows the divergence doesn't always lead to a longer-term downtrend.

Looking at small caps, for instance, there have been only five other two-day periods in the last decade where the S&P 500 traded up while at the same time, the Russell 2000 traded down more than 1.5 percent. And according to Bespoke Investment Group, the S&P 500 has been up an average of nearly 5.5 percent in the following month. Similarly, the Russell 2000 also saw remarkable gains with an average return of more than 8 percent.

"While there has been a lot of angst over the recent underperformance of small caps, based on the historical record, these periods have typically not been a sign of the beginning of a longer-term downtrend for small caps or the overall market," according to a note from Bespoke.


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advances and declines - advances and declines is key

advances and declines

the advances and declines chart below shows how much stocks and equities are above their moving averages and intrinsic valued. This is something significant, as we have found we are at 275 on the the chart, and a level that was last seen just before a correction.

advances and declines is not always a good indicator, however the last week or so, the advances and declines have rocketed up pretty fast and showing extremes. The advances and declines can going higher, but as said extremes can be a good warning sign.

advances and declines

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Nasdaq weekly update - Nasdaq weekly update

Nasdaq weekly update


Taking a look at the nasdaq chart on the weekly timeframe we can see that for the last few weeks, things are getting tired. The nasdaq rallied up to the previous highs in September 2012 and had trouble to get above those levels. Now the nasdaq seems to be sinking a bit.

The below indicators seems to be suggesting, there is certain headwinds that are possibly coming for the markets. The stochastics are turning and are almost on a sell signal. So it seems the market right now has lost its spark, and we are getting a few warning shots 'across the bow' so to speak.

Nasdaq weekly chart

The USD dollar chart (or the inverse trade UUP) broke out of a falling resistance line in FEB 2013, and since then has been on a steady climb upwards. This significant strength, could be another warning sign.

USD chart

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bull market - bull market indicator

bull market - bull market indicator

Again I hear so many people say the bull market is gone, and we are in a bear market.

They are also saying we are not in a bull market right now. Is this true, or a lie?

Well in all my years as an analyst, I do not read newspapers or listen to the so called gurus, I always come back to the charts, not matter if we are in a bull market or a bear market. Always remember the charts never lie, I mean NEVER!

The bull market / bear market indicator is saying that right now we are in a bull market. Now this does not mean we cannot go down or sell off violently at some stage, but this indicator is very good for seeing the longer term picture and very reliable. Buying the dips has been working very well for a few years now.

Since 2009 the bears have struggled badly, they have had their chances to go short along the way, however just as they got excited, the market turned on them yet again and we started travelling up again.

As you can see on the chart below, the current bullish market started in January 2012 and we are now a few hundred points higher on the SPX.

The bears out there have obviously not looked at charts like this, and keep trying to go short or call a crash. As said, even if we sell off hard, the direction of this market is up, and we have a good plan to make money no matter what happens anyway.

bull market indicator

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Broke To The Upside

Well we were saying the range on the S&P should be watched carefully, and said it was not long till we broke either upside or downside.

You can see in our LAST POST HERE

We broke to the upside, however I would not call it a convincing break!. The bulls yet again still have the upper hand I think. We are still up past our 1500 level we called months ago, and still the bears do not seem to be making their mark.

Yes, we are still in a bull market, however I can say to you that we are starting to see some very interesting signals on the charts, and a few warning signs that market may soon get a bit tired.


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mid week update - spx mid week update

Alot of jumping around on the S&P and global markets today.

There are lots of people out there saying the market is about to crash, the sentiment still remains the same.

At the moment whenever the S&P has sold off seems that the smart money is just holding their nose and buying more.

Yesterday there was a little confusion, however that seems to have sorted itself out today, as things went along in an orderly fashion.

if you have a look at the S&P chart, and the RUSSELL, they seem to be holding quite well, for now anyway. 

spx chart

russell 2000 chart

We do have a busy day on the market tomorrow, and there will be lots of movement. Tomorrow we have Chain Store Sales, Charles Evens Speaks, Jobless Claims, Productivity & Cost, Nat Gas, Consumer Credit, Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply.


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Mini Apocalypse 2012 flash crash in the ES

Mini Apocalypse 2012 flash crash in the ES

You gotta hand it to these guys, they run the S&P down on small volume, very small volume on the announcement that House vote on Speaker John Boehner's proposed Plan B will be delayed until after Christmas! Bullishit does not even begin to explain what this is.

Lets go to the charts.

First the S&P 500 daily charts. It dropped 50 points. But the trend remains up for now.

Have a look at the mini flash crash created in globex. The S&P went down 50 pts in just a matter of moments on small volume. It really smells of Bullshit. So be careful. 

Take this into account. 

1) This happens before opex FRIDAY!

2) This happens on the end of the world DATE! HAHA LOL. :-)

3) This happens at the end of the week right before xmas. 

If it smells like BS......it looks like BS......well then it probably is. Manipulation at its finest. 

I know this going to be hard to believe, but I still think 1500 is coming soon on the SPX. I know with this FLASH CRASH type action people will be laughing at a statement like this, however I will stick to my guns for now. 

The market is still not open, so we will wait and see what friday brings! Are they just trapping traders shorts before blasting us up higher. Well I guess we will wait and see. 

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