Dow jones transports update

Dow jones transports update

Dow jones transports update today, This is the leader of the market and we are currently sitting at 15755 and right on the 50 moving average line (BLUE)

As you can see the 50 EMA has been a line in the sand so to speak and will be for next week. Remember this coming WEDNESDAY we have the fed announcement which will be a big one, where by they will announce whether or not they will taper.

My guess is NO they will not TAPER, but time will tell, and we shall see what BS they have up their sleeve.

Ben has a few more months in office, and he has already blurted out in his previous speeches that Taper will not happen. He said if he tapers he could cause interest rates to skyrocket and collapse derivatives markets. At the moment he is not willing to let these events happen. Or so he says anyway. While I think these two events will happen in the next few years, Bernanke is sort of saying.....NO WAY NOT ON MY WATCH! So I really doubt there will be many big EARTH SHATTERING news next week. It will pretty much be the same old bullshit, just talked about on a different day! You know the drill.

For now the charts play much more importance anyway, and we are in no where mans land. Looking at the chart below you can see alot of traders are still ready and waiting for the FED'S announcement mid next week. Until then, happy trading.

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Does This chart look bearish

Does this chart look bearish?

I do not know many times I sit back in my chair and tell my students this statement this year in 2013. It seems every time the fed talks they rally up the market 10 - 20 points.

I know people have been calling for a correction and a crash, and hey while that could happen tomorrow or in the next week I had a look at the IWM or RUSSELL 2000 daily chart, and I must say I no matter how I look at it, I am having a hard and difficult time to find something extremely bearish to say!

I can't believe I have to apologize on my own blog for being a broken record. HAHA. But here I go again. LOL. The black line below on the RUSSELL chart below is the line in the sand I feel. Above this black line is bullish, and below bearish.

We can also see the MACD is turning pretty violently too. So the next few weeks will be interesting.

I see everyone talking about TAPERING coming soon still, and OK, I agree tapering will have to start somewhere down the track, but there is not use giving you dates because I do not have a crystal ball. I wish I did, but that is whole other story. For now TAPERING IS NOTHING MORE THAN A MYTHICAL NOVEL THAT IS BEING WRITTEN.... right now nothing has been done, and the fed continue to throw more money into this market. There is no use guessing when tapering will happen until action is taken, and it's much more important to watch and trade charts.

Currently the IMW is sitting at 110.5 and looks like it is firming up for its recent sideways action. The target might be 112 - 114 if there is more positive news to occupy news land in the coming weeks.

IWM Chart

Why Hasn't The Markets Crashed

Why Hasn't The Markets Crashed?

Alot of people out there seem to think the market was going to crash this year in 2013?

Because of THIS GUY! 



Now we at the end of 2013 and not only has the market NOT CRASHED, we hit new highs in the last several weeks and seem to be holding.

So...... Why Hasn't The Markets Crashed?



In my own opinion, it's pretty simple. The predicament the US faces right now they are setting many extra ordinary policies against an economy that is still very damaged.

The employment data coming out of the US is still pretty bad, and if it stays that way definatly won't see any tapering on the market, and the FEDERAL RESERVE have confirmed this numerous times. Particularly with Janet Yellen taking over the FED RESERVE early next year as her reputation is seen as more dovish.

Equity prices right now are in a bubble, I will be the first to admit that! However what traders out there are failing to realize is that Quantitative Easing is like liquid VIAGRA holding up the markets right now. Its like the rocket fuel that is not running out sending up equities and other asset classes and I think it is a fantastic representation of what is really going... WHICH IS : When Q.E. Stops there is going to be a much bigger catastrophe in the markets....yes! Bigger than the one we had back in 2008.

But for now, there is not reason to panic and get scared, as there are no signs this massive liquid injections into the markets by the fed is going to end anytime soon. One day they WILL have to, but for now they will continue to soldier one with their plans.


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Dow Jones Daily Chart

Dow Jones Daily Chart

dow jones daily chart

The Dow Jones Daily Chart is showing that we have had 3 down days in a row. Something that has not happened for a while. You can see that we are getting close to a 50 Moving Average too, which is watched by alot of analysts. The MACD signal is still not on a SELL signal.

Still I think we are holding pretty well after the major run we have had up over the last few weeks, and sentiment trader things we are still in a bull market. The debt ceiling talks are really messing with the markets here, and more lies from capitol hill will not give the market too much direction in the short term. Tapering and also debt ceiling is the talk of the town right now going into the end of the year!

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Debt Ceiling Issue Come Next

Debt Ceiling Issue Come Next

Right now the Stock market anxieties will turn to debt ceiling issues.

That is the talk of the town right now, and the next major hurdle for these markets.

Political risk. Democrats and Republicans are fighting again about the nation's finances. What's the risk? If they fail to pass a funding bill before the new fiscal year starts Oct. 1, a government "shutdown" is possible. And if they don't raise the debt ceiling in coming weeks, the nation could run out of money to pay its bills and default on its debts. It might be just rumours again, like we had with the fed tapering stuff.

How Congress and President Barack Obama deal with the debt ceiling is likely to determine market volatility for the rest of the year I think.

Now that the expected tapering of $85 billion a month in asset purchases fizzled out at the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting, investor attention has shifted to the brewing showdown over the budget and the debt ceiling.

The Congressional Budget Office sees U.S. debt at 100% of GDP by 2038 at current budget rates.
Adding to pressure is a Congressional Budget Office report in the past week showing that national debt is now 73% of GDP and that the federal budget “cannot be sustained indefinitely.” So when you look at the RUSSELL weekly chart below, things do not add up. But then again, when you do some heavy research, and the TRUTH comes out to how the real crisis in 2008 started, you would not believe your eyes.

RUSSEL 2000 WEEKLY CHART!

RUSSEL 2000 WEEKLY CHART!

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federal reserve creates bubbles

federal reserve creates bubbles

federal reserve creates bubbles

I like this from the S&A Digest!

Ben Bernanke saw his shadow yesterday… 

The market expected him to start tapering the Federal Reserve's $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. But the Fed chairman announced yesterday he would continue easing… 

We're not surprised. A central banker's job is to print money. He causes inflation… He blows up bubbles. 

When those bubbles pop, they print more money… It's a vicious cycle. 

It's like Groundhog Day… Bernanke takes the podium. He's scared by what's happening in the economy, so he prints more money and scurries home. Only instead of a longer winter… we'll see already artificially high asset prices march higher.


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SPX DAILY CHART - Downward Channel

SPX DAILY CHART - Downward Channel


We are now in a clearly defined downwards channel on the S&P 500. This market has been in serious trouble since the 1st Of August! Something tells me we are not done on the downside yet, but with the SYRIA crisis overhead and also the TAPERING news, things sure are getting interesting!!

SPX DAILY CHART - Downward Channel

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Taper Talks

Taper Talks

Benny Boy - Hey Presto!

Looking at data here over the weekend, and I am starting to believe all this talk of tapering is just hyped up gibberish. They are due to give some sort of announcement on the 17th & 18th Of September.

Yes! Ok, I do believe that some day, they are going to have to stop printing money out of thin and throwing that in the market. However all these talks about tapering really is just that....all talk and NO ACTION! fancy that! :P :P

So you can put me in the camp where I believe no tapering is coming in SEPTEMBER and the reason is that there are too many concerns out there at the moment. And I am of the belief it will be a more drawn out event over many months, possibly even longer as there are too many economic concerns out there especially at the moment.

Right now with the market dropping it is self evident to me that the MARKET is PRICING or FACTORING in Tapering or wants to relieve some pressure. This is another reason why tapering will be a very lengthy long drawn out conclusion.

You have to remember we have seen quite a move in bonds lately which are going down, and futures markets are going higher.

Bonds Chart

A lot of the smart traders out there are thinking about the bigger picture and the about the bigger issues that are about to be tackled. The economy right now is far too volatile for the fed to say its safe to start TAPERING I believe.

Just my 0.02 cents.

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Dow Weekly Update

Dow Weekly Update

The last few weeks on the market have been interesting, with a sell signal on the weekly chart, the bears have come back with a real biting attitude and they want to teach the bulls a lesson. The main concern for me is that we have broken a longer term rising support line (and channel) and this week we closed below it. That is a real thorn in the side for the bulls, however when you zoom back to 2010 just like we have on the chart below you can see this is still a bull market, and we have had sell offs along the way, however they only last a few weeks. So we could be in this process of back and filling again! :-)

Right now we have had 3 red weeks on the candlestick chart below and we are in a  TREAD CAREFULLY stance on the market. A close below this rising support line is not good, however it seems there could be lower prices coming sometime in SEPTEMBER 2013 and that might make sense as every man and his dog is awaiting the federal reserve Tapering news to see if they are going to start withdrawing the billions of dollars they are flooding the market with. My own personal opinion is it will not really matter if the tapering is a small percentage, investors will probably just get on with it and realize it is not the end of the world....however, we expect there to be a little bit of nervousness leading up to this FED Announcement which will occur on the 17th & 18th of SEPTEMBER.... I like the analogy that some analysts out there are calling it SEPT-APER! Very clever, but I must confess not matter what announcement may come, the charts always come first.

Right now the charts below are hinting at lower prices, but even if that does occur in the next few  months, I would not go falling in love with the downside, that is for sure. The bears do have chance to do some damage here or in the next few weeks, but how much we will have to wait and see!?

Dow Weekly Update

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Is The Market Really Crashing

Is The Market Really Crashing ?

Having a look around the blogosphere this morning I was quite alarmed at what I was reading. There seems to be some so called analysts and news media sites calling the sell off we have been witness too the start of a bigger crash and or meltdown on the market.

WOW! I think these are big statements but would like to take the time to help traders young and old as to what I think ('IN MY HUMBLE OPINION' - of course) is really going on right now in a few simple sentences.

Before I do that, it is important to show you a chart, so lets go to the most damaged indicie chart right now the DOW JONES DAILY CHART.....

Is The Market Really Crashing

As you can see on the chart above we have gone from 15500 all the way to the 14976 level. So in saying that we have sold off just over 500 points as you read this. No where near a crash, that is for sure.

In fact, in terms of the huge move up we saw back in JUNE - AUGUST we have only taken off about half of those profits so far. So again, it is nothing really to sneeze at.

Here are some other important NOTES to REMEMBER :-

* We have rallied quite extensively in 2013 and profit taking is always going to occur.

* We are currently in a BULL MARKET and no where does it state bull markets must go UP IN A STRAIGHT LINE. 

* There has been no let-up in the 'taper tantrum' that has demolished stocks across the emerging markets in recent months.

* The fed has not issued their TAPERING statement this will happen NEXT MONTH.

* Spiking interest rates is putting pressure on the overall market.

* This is AUGUST and notoriously known to be low volume, and prone for corrections over the decades as smart money and bigger traders are on holiday, and totally out of the market.

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Bernanke might postpone tapering

Bernanke might postpone tapering ?

The Bernank may delay his plan to taper bond purchases past September, as investors expect, because I have noticed a surge in interest rates this week. It is something Bernanke is watching, and will react too.

Alot of traders I believe are not reading the signs right. Many analysts are saying tapering is coming, however you have to remember that simply nothing at all is currently being done, and all this market movement is due to one thing - RUMORS, RUMORS and more RUMORS.

 Ok, I will be the first to admit, rumors are always going to move the market any day of the week. However this is a big one as we are talking about a massive stimulus program that has been going on for year now. I doubt the economy is good enough for the rumors to be bought off the table and for tapering to come in quickly. Infact, I would say that looking at the dow jones chart below, the market is already pricing in tapering if indeed it does happen or even if it doesn't.

Bernanke might postpone tapering

I think that this selling off will also slow down the amount of tapering that COULD occur and I underline that word COULD! Right now it seems every time Bernanke sits down at capitol hill, he is just blowing steam up everyone's arse. He keeps hinting that he will take action, but my interpretation on that is that things are not good enough for him to even take the most minute of action.

I don't think that Bernanke is going to be held hostage to the bond market, and the fed right now knows that rumors can really get this market moving, so imagine if they actually had to do something.

The Fed has been buying $85 billion in treasuries and mortgage-backed securities each month in an effort to reduce interest rates. This is all part of the central bank's quantitative easing, or QE3, plan. Stock and bond market investors expect the Fed chief to slow this process as early as September but we might not see anything until the new year. Its all talk and BS in my opinion.

But again, these dates and all this BS from the Fed is just making me think there is something much bigger going on here. I mean, nothing has actually been done, and the economy is not doing that well. Or well enough for them to start taking action. This is a repeating pattern, like a cycle that is getting traders on the wrong side of the trade! But most of the big boys love it when you are on the wrong side of the trade, it means it makes their job alot easier.


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The T Bomb - Taper time

It’s a very busy week for economic data. Investors will get their first look at second-quarter gross domestic product on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecast the data to show the economy grew at an annualized rate of just 1% after a mediocre 1.8% expansion in the first three months of the year.

Investors are closely watching the Fed for any further clues as to when it may begin tapering its purchases of government bonds. Concerns over a slower pace of stimulus was tied to a pullback by stocks last month, though equities soon recovered to see the S&P and Dow head back to record territory.

May I take a moment and remind you want happened last month back in JUNE when we had the FOMC meeting.

So..... do you remember what happened???.....

THIS!....

fed announcement sell off

Since then the FED has done nothing, no tapering, no withdrawal of stimulus, no shouting, just more B.S.  We have skidded up higher, and I find it uncanny the market is acting the way it is right before this major announcement. This might be a bear trap in the making as traders are starting to think about what happened last time. It could be a situation of ROPE IN THE BEARS, Before sending us up higher. Sneaeky!, but I can see that happening. It would be a good way to take money off the novice traders out there.

My guess (and it is a guess) is that nothing changes, Somehow the charts do not look like they are about to drop like they did back in JUNE. So my guess is that the news is coming out in charts first here, yes, no taper has started and they will not drop the T Bomb word just yet. It may however come into their vocabulary later down the track, but for now the market is in a holding pattern.  We shall see.

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Bernanke Makes His Move

The Dow Jones Right now is coiling, I believe before higher prices coming. This looks like a horizontal (bullish) flag.

For Exact levels and targets...  CLICK HERE

dow jones chart

The minutes of the fed meeting was issued today. 

 The Federal Reserve’s proposed timetable for tapering its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program is not set in stone, Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday in fairly dovish prepared remarks to a Congressional panel.

“I emphasize that, because our asset purchases depend on economic and financial developments, they are by no means on a preset course,” Bernanke said in remarks prepared for delivery to the House Financial Services Committee.

I can some all this bullshit up in 1 clear sentence. ARE .....YOU......READY!?

If Q2 GDP comes in below 1% as some good economists are predicting , there's no chance he cuts the money off.

There I SAID IT. LOL. Pretty simple really.

But what I think does not matter, because I am just a small voice who owns a small little blog out there somewhere in cyberspace.

It will be interesting to see what happens, because if you think the economy is getting better, and we are seeing a recovery, well, you may need to stop taking that heavy dose of Prozac.


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2013 economic recovery - Is the 2013 economic recovery real

2013 economic recovery - Is the 2013 economic recovery real?

2013 economic recovery

This is a decent question and there is only one real answer. NO! the 2013 economic recovery is not real.

Here is why.....

Since the fed announced this whole tapering of stimulus it has crated alot of volatility  in the markets. Basically the markets believe that the fed had an exit strategy for tapering the Quantitative Easing and after the bond bond buying program it would take some poor data to take them off course for them to do that.

Right now Ben Bernanke says it is going to take lots of positive data to even think about tapering off. There are some fed board members who think the US is strong enough to come off life support but other members like Bernanke who think it might be too soon to be doing that and they want to be sure that the recovery in the US is strong enough to take some of the accommodation away. What they are worried about is the the fact that long term rates are moving higher which pushes up mortgage rates also. The whole recovery in the US seems to be based on a fake stimulus that is not even working.

Also since the 2008 crisis, this so called come back in the housing markets is not real as well, and the fed do not want to kill that, they want to keep the false sense of security out there going, and make it seems like the housing market and stock market are recovering together. So far this play is working very well.

Right now the story is playing out perfectly, even though there still is a real divide right now Bernanke is the only real one calling the shots. He is not in any hurry to take away the accommodation and kill this so fake recovery yet. That would be catastrophic no doubt.

As you can see right now, the markets are extremely sensitive to what the fed and any central banker has to say about quantitative easing and the fact that they want to start tapering off soon. This week, Ben gave no assurances that tapering could occur at all and the market skid up higher. Again this is proof that we are going to see lots of reaction to talks about tapering and quantitative easing in the coming months.

Bernanke was clear that they want to see more recovery in the jobs market first. So it safe to say the FED opinions have altered quite dramatically in the last 24 hours.

Half of the FOMC policy makers do believe the US economy is showing signs of recovery and strength and it is showing up in some of the job numbers we saw last week. However the doves of the FED believe it is not quite there yet and they want to see more evidence that this 'fake recovery' is self sustaining.

The IMF have lowered the US growth for the coming 12 months. Also other major investment banks have lowered their forecasts for the US, so there is very much a differing of opinions right now as to where the US is really heading.

We all know the truth, this so called 2013 economic recovery is a NOT A REAL RECOVERY at all, in fact, it is nothing more than a fairy tale story we keep hearing on the TV and on the radio every day. People keep believing in the fairy tale because they keep getting told what they want to hear. But pumping up the real economy by printing money out of thin air is only going to end in tragedy, you do not have to be Nostradamus to predict this will happen.

 It is not a matter of if it will happen, but now only when this will happen. No one expects things to crumble, but they will crumble at a time when most people do not expect it, that is how the global elite steal from the poor to pay the rich again and again.

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Ben Sends Market Higher

Ben Sends Market Higher

Well I did not bother to stay up and watch the FOMC meeting, because I knew whatever came spewing out of Ben Bernanke's mouth would be either horseshit, or bullshit! LOL. Take your pick, I am not sure which one is more potent. LOL.

Anywhoo...After reading his comments, and the FOMC minutes it is evident that the officials want to see more evidence of recovery in the jobs markets before tapering the current stimulus program. They want to keep inflation at around 2% but the FED Board is split over when they should start to taper or cut back their massive stimulus support program.

As you can see the market did like Ben Bernankes comments, and we have been skidding up higher on the S&P 500 in the last few hours. Bears are still hating this market, but the charts do not lie. There is no doubt about it, the S&P looks very strong right now.

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Dow Jones Transports Chart - Steady As She Goes Captain

The Leader of the market or the (DOW JONES TRANSPORTS) chart is showing that since March of this year 2013 it has been in a larger upwards channel. Interestingly enough we have been bouncing off that line over the last few days however we did not breach that line, and that is telling us that the market still has some sort of strength even though there has been rumors of the fed talking about culling of the quantitative easing and liquidity pumping up of the markets.

It is obvious to me that there are head winds for the markets over the next few weeks, but that does not mean a thing as technically we have not breached the risisng support line, so until that happens there is no need to panic.

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Market Breadth Chart

With all the relentless selling in the market over the last few weeks you can see that we are back down to fair value on the market breadth chart. Every time we get down under the green line and rally back above, there is a good chance the market sees some more buyers come on board. The next few days will be interesting as we are coming up for a fed meeting next week, and we see what Mr Bernanke Wanky has to say about QE tapering.

More lies, and more bullshit from the fed and government! There is one thing that we can be very thankful for, and that is charts like this below. WHY? Well simple, the charts never ever LIE! :-)

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