Does This chart look bearish

Does this chart look bearish?

I do not know many times I sit back in my chair and tell my students this statement this year in 2013. It seems every time the fed talks they rally up the market 10 - 20 points.

I know people have been calling for a correction and a crash, and hey while that could happen tomorrow or in the next week I had a look at the IWM or RUSSELL 2000 daily chart, and I must say I no matter how I look at it, I am having a hard and difficult time to find something extremely bearish to say!

I can't believe I have to apologize on my own blog for being a broken record. HAHA. But here I go again. LOL. The black line below on the RUSSELL chart below is the line in the sand I feel. Above this black line is bullish, and below bearish.

We can also see the MACD is turning pretty violently too. So the next few weeks will be interesting.

I see everyone talking about TAPERING coming soon still, and OK, I agree tapering will have to start somewhere down the track, but there is not use giving you dates because I do not have a crystal ball. I wish I did, but that is whole other story. For now TAPERING IS NOTHING MORE THAN A MYTHICAL NOVEL THAT IS BEING WRITTEN.... right now nothing has been done, and the fed continue to throw more money into this market. There is no use guessing when tapering will happen until action is taken, and it's much more important to watch and trade charts.

Currently the IMW is sitting at 110.5 and looks like it is firming up for its recent sideways action. The target might be 112 - 114 if there is more positive news to occupy news land in the coming weeks.

IWM Chart

Why Quantitative Easing Is Not Working

Why Quantitative Easing Is Not Working

Here is a chart that will SHOCK YOU!, Well ok, maybe not shock you, but it is very telling.

Even though share markets lost their steam, the commodity market has NOT been doing well! We have had big gains on the metals market recently which is interesting because this is the first time commodities have responded to QE3.

 As the charts below shows commodities prices rose with each QE1, QE2 but has remained flat while the fed spewed out cash for the THIRD time! This chart below pure PROOF that the feds plan is slowly unraveling / failing and they are now getting backed into the corner. What is their next scam for these markets?

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Dow Jones Daily Chart

Dow Jones Daily Chart

dow jones daily chart

The Dow Jones Daily Chart is showing that we have had 3 down days in a row. Something that has not happened for a while. You can see that we are getting close to a 50 Moving Average too, which is watched by alot of analysts. The MACD signal is still not on a SELL signal.

Still I think we are holding pretty well after the major run we have had up over the last few weeks, and sentiment trader things we are still in a bull market. The debt ceiling talks are really messing with the markets here, and more lies from capitol hill will not give the market too much direction in the short term. Tapering and also debt ceiling is the talk of the town right now going into the end of the year!

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SPX DAILY CHART - Downward Channel

SPX DAILY CHART - Downward Channel


We are now in a clearly defined downwards channel on the S&P 500. This market has been in serious trouble since the 1st Of August! Something tells me we are not done on the downside yet, but with the SYRIA crisis overhead and also the TAPERING news, things sure are getting interesting!!

SPX DAILY CHART - Downward Channel

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Good News Is Bad News

Good news is bad news

Good News Is Bad News? Really?

The earnings right now have not been too bad, and there are much talk amongst traders that this is exactly what they were afraid of. Good reports, good economic data and positive earnings are actually bad for the market?

WHY?

Well.... the word taper comes into this equation straight away. Remember Ben Bernankes last speech, he hinted if the coming months worth of data was postive and better than expected they would begin to taper.

So my guess is if this economic data continues to surprise and get better, the fed will start to taper. Remember right now nothing has been done. But if they do start to taper, on this good news, I doubt it would be anything drastic. Probably minimal at best.

We have been watching this very closely, but it has not really affected the market too much right now, but if we get more good jobs numbers, and more positive economic data, there are big warning signs for the market, and as you saw last time, just the hint of the word taper, and the market unraveled a bit. So I think as your read this, where the market is right now, and watching more good news, could be a real WARNING SHOT ACROSS THE BOW so to speak.


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fed tapering - treasuries yield chart

fed tapering

The fed tapering news has many investors scrambling for the exits recently. But realistically, is this really a reason to panic?

We have to remember that the FED have not done anything yet, it is all just rumors and speculation. The fed have also announced that they will not be winding / tapering back if the economy is stagnant, and they do not see improvement in the jobless rates. So you have to admit all this panic is over speculation and rumors, something the government thrives and get their jollies from! ;-)

There has been alot of talk recently about the fed tapering, and also what this has done to yields on the market. It seems to be becoming a lucrative vehicle yet again!

As you can see since the news of fed tapering or winding back of fed stimulus a few months ago, investors have been looking somewhere safe to put their money. That seems to be in yields as they have gone up dramatically in the last few months. As you can see below, the 10 year has gone from 16 all the way up to 27 on the close friday.

treasuries yield chart

With more rumors and speculation, we would not be surprised to see yields continue to spike upwards in the coming months. But again, caution must be taken, as the fed keep putting rumors and news out there, and what everyone is forgetting is news and rumors are just that. Not a thing has been done to the mysterious money they keep pumping the market with. Where is it coming from? Mid air right? YES! eventually that will have to come to an end...I agree with that, but it has not happened yet, and we are still in a bull market no doubt.

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Market Update 29th June 2013

The Fed Tapering News Is Really causing some havoc with the market. I Explain why in the VIDEO below.

WATCH the Latest Market Update Video Below.

Market Update - Video Analysis 29th June

 

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