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Showing posts with label taper. Show all posts
Showing posts with label taper. Show all posts

Saturday, 14 December 2013

Dow jones transports update

Dow jones transports update

Dow jones transports update today, This is the leader of the market and we are currently sitting at 15755 and right on the 50 moving average line (BLUE)

As you can see the 50 EMA has been a line in the sand so to speak and will be for next week. Remember this coming WEDNESDAY we have the fed announcement which will be a big one, where by they will announce whether or not they will taper.

My guess is NO they will not TAPER, but time will tell, and we shall see what BS they have up their sleeve.

Ben has a few more months in office, and he has already blurted out in his previous speeches that Taper will not happen. He said if he tapers he could cause interest rates to skyrocket and collapse derivatives markets. At the moment he is not willing to let these events happen. Or so he says anyway. While I think these two events will happen in the next few years, Bernanke is sort of saying.....NO WAY NOT ON MY WATCH! So I really doubt there will be many big EARTH SHATTERING news next week. It will pretty much be the same old bullshit, just talked about on a different day! You know the drill.

For now the charts play much more importance anyway, and we are in no where mans land. Looking at the chart below you can see alot of traders are still ready and waiting for the FED'S announcement mid next week. Until then, happy trading.






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Sunday, 3 November 2013

Why Hasn't The Markets Crashed

Why Hasn't The Markets Crashed?

Alot of people out there seem to think the market was going to crash this year in 2013?

Because of THIS GUY! 



Now we at the end of 2013 and not only has the market NOT CRASHED, we hit new highs in the last several weeks and seem to be holding.

So...... Why Hasn't The Markets Crashed?



In my own opinion, it's pretty simple. The predicament the US faces right now they are setting many extra ordinary policies against an economy that is still very damaged.

The employment data coming out of the US is still pretty bad, and if it stays that way definatly won't see any tapering on the market, and the FEDERAL RESERVE have confirmed this numerous times. Particularly with Janet Yellen taking over the FED RESERVE early next year as her reputation is seen as more dovish.

Equity prices right now are in a bubble, I will be the first to admit that! However what traders out there are failing to realize is that Quantitative Easing is like liquid VIAGRA holding up the markets right now. Its like the rocket fuel that is not running out sending up equities and other asset classes and I think it is a fantastic representation of what is really going... WHICH IS : When Q.E. Stops there is going to be a much bigger catastrophe in the markets....yes! Bigger than the one we had back in 2008.

But for now, there is not reason to panic and get scared, as there are no signs this massive liquid injections into the markets by the fed is going to end anytime soon. One day they WILL have to, but for now they will continue to soldier one with their plans.


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Tuesday, 24 September 2013

Why Quantitative Easing Is Not Working

Why Quantitative Easing Is Not Working

Here is a chart that will SHOCK YOU!, Well ok, maybe not shock you, but it is very telling.

Even though share markets lost their steam, the commodity market has NOT been doing well! We have had big gains on the metals market recently which is interesting because this is the first time commodities have responded to QE3.

 As the charts below shows commodities prices rose with each QE1, QE2 but has remained flat while the fed spewed out cash for the THIRD time! This chart below pure PROOF that the feds plan is slowly unraveling / failing and they are now getting backed into the corner. What is their next scam for these markets?

Why Quantitative Easing Is Not Working

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Friday, 23 August 2013

Dow Weekly Update

Dow Weekly Update

The last few weeks on the market have been interesting, with a sell signal on the weekly chart, the bears have come back with a real biting attitude and they want to teach the bulls a lesson. The main concern for me is that we have broken a longer term rising support line (and channel) and this week we closed below it. That is a real thorn in the side for the bulls, however when you zoom back to 2010 just like we have on the chart below you can see this is still a bull market, and we have had sell offs along the way, however they only last a few weeks. So we could be in this process of back and filling again! :-)

Right now we have had 3 red weeks on the candlestick chart below and we are in a  TREAD CAREFULLY stance on the market. A close below this rising support line is not good, however it seems there could be lower prices coming sometime in SEPTEMBER 2013 and that might make sense as every man and his dog is awaiting the federal reserve Tapering news to see if they are going to start withdrawing the billions of dollars they are flooding the market with. My own personal opinion is it will not really matter if the tapering is a small percentage, investors will probably just get on with it and realize it is not the end of the world....however, we expect there to be a little bit of nervousness leading up to this FED Announcement which will occur on the 17th & 18th of SEPTEMBER.... I like the analogy that some analysts out there are calling it SEPT-APER! Very clever, but I must confess not matter what announcement may come, the charts always come first.

Right now the charts below are hinting at lower prices, but even if that does occur in the next few  months, I would not go falling in love with the downside, that is for sure. The bears do have chance to do some damage here or in the next few weeks, but how much we will have to wait and see!?

Dow Weekly Update
Dow Weekly Update




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Monday, 29 July 2013

The T Bomb - Taper time

It’s a very busy week for economic data. Investors will get their first look at second-quarter gross domestic product on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecast the data to show the economy grew at an annualized rate of just 1% after a mediocre 1.8% expansion in the first three months of the year.

Investors are closely watching the Fed for any further clues as to when it may begin tapering its purchases of government bonds. Concerns over a slower pace of stimulus was tied to a pullback by stocks last month, though equities soon recovered to see the S&P and Dow head back to record territory.

May I take a moment and remind you want happened last month back in JUNE when we had the FOMC meeting.

So..... do you remember what happened???.....

THIS!....


fed announcement sell off



Since then the FED has done nothing, no tapering, no withdrawal of stimulus, no shouting, just more B.S.  We have skidded up higher, and I find it uncanny the market is acting the way it is right before this major announcement. This might be a bear trap in the making as traders are starting to think about what happened last time. It could be a situation of ROPE IN THE BEARS, Before sending us up higher. Sneaeky!, but I can see that happening. It would be a good way to take money off the novice traders out there.

My guess (and it is a guess) is that nothing changes, Somehow the charts do not look like they are about to drop like they did back in JUNE. So my guess is that the news is coming out in charts first here, yes, no taper has started and they will not drop the T Bomb word just yet. It may however come into their vocabulary later down the track, but for now the market is in a holding pattern.  We shall see.

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Thursday, 25 July 2013

Good News Is Bad News

Good news is bad news
Good news is bad news


Good News Is Bad News? Really?

The earnings right now have not been too bad, and there are much talk amongst traders that this is exactly what they were afraid of. Good reports, good economic data and positive earnings are actually bad for the market?

WHY?

Well.... the word taper comes into this equation straight away. Remember Ben Bernankes last speech, he hinted if the coming months worth of data was postive and better than expected they would begin to taper.

So my guess is if this economic data continues to surprise and get better, the fed will start to taper. Remember right now nothing has been done. But if they do start to taper, on this good news, I doubt it would be anything drastic. Probably minimal at best.

We have been watching this very closely, but it has not really affected the market too much right now, but if we get more good jobs numbers, and more positive economic data, there are big warning signs for the market, and as you saw last time, just the hint of the word taper, and the market unraveled a bit. So I think as your read this, where the market is right now, and watching more good news, could be a real WARNING SHOT ACROSS THE BOW so to speak.


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