Dow Jones Transports are blocking a major rally - Dow Jones Transports are blocking a major rally

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Dow Jones Transports are blocking a major rally

"Dow Jones Transports are blocking a major rally" 

in the news Dow Jones Transports are blocking a major rally? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader With stocks pulling back modestly as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slip from their 7-day rallies, and one index will prove whether the rally still has legs: the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

We can notice that the group has been trading lower since its March 1 peak, which he attributed to the narrowing of the overall market rally as investors move to faster growing stocks.

Looking closely at the stocks that make up the transports index, we found a few key trends.

This is a classic case of the TRANSPORTS lagging, and NASDAQ rallying, but lets face it the NASDAQ is not skyrocketing like it should be. Here is why, you can see it on the chart.

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Other leaders in the group are sparse. Southwest Airlines is up 21 percent on strong execution. Railroad Kansas City Southern and the embattled United Continental were the only other double-digit gainers.

The rest of the group lagged. Most of the airlines offered minor gains of 3 or 4 percent, while truck, freight, and logistics companies like J.B. Hunt and Ryder were down, some with double-digit losses.

"I find the action in this group disturbing, You remove CSX and Norfolk Southern and Southwest and you've got a group that confirms the bond market's advance, meaning interest rates going down, and not the stock market's rally — stocks going up. There are just too many negatives, with a total of eight down for the year. It's not a group that you want to own."

And while it can be uplifting to tinker with the group, replacing Ryder with competitor XPO Logistics for a 30-percent boost or removing rental car player Avis with its 40 percent downturn, the index offers clarity more than anything else.

History teaches us that you can't look through an index like that, and the only conclusion right now is that the Dow Jones Transportation index offers no solace for the bulls and without a re-acceleration, makes you feel that the rally isn't being confirmed by a group that I have always thought has to be appeased if we're going to get another leg up from here.

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Is the bull market looking tired - Is the bull market looking tired

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Is the bull market looking tired

"Is the bull market looking tired" 

in the news Is the bull market looking tired? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader has readers asking Is the bull market looking tired?

that is a good question we think....

what is really surprising to us especially the market performance of the Korean market, which is one of the best in ASIA at the moment, not only because of it being in Asia but  of the strength of the Huyng, and has been relatively strong verses the US Dollar. 

Not many people are looking at the pricing of risk, so with the risk in check, that could mean there could be a headwinds looming and things are not looking as good as they could be leading into the summer time period. We have some powerful charts that monitor that. It would mean there could be downwards reaction, so going into the next few months, we are warning clients to be a bit more on the cautious side. 

Here is a chart of the stock market, and yet again, YES, we have yet again broken out to new highs. :-)

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Is the Bull market starting to look a bit tired? Really? Well all we can say is we can take a look at the hard data, which has surfaced. That is saying, for a long time valuations have been a bit stretched. What we are talking about is 1 standard deviation above the average 10 year trading average

As you read this post, the markets are pricing in a lot of positives coming out of economic growth, and more trump talks, and trump reforms, honestly we have not seen anything delivered yet. This just means we are rallying on hope of some good news, before the news is out. Sometimes this can lead investors into a false sense of security. But the way we see it right now, is that there really is nothing to panic about. 

But please stay in check, that in these sorts of situations there is always room for lots of disappointment. So if there is room for negatives right now, this would be it. 

The fed, is fully priced for another rate hike in June. So we will see what happens there. Plus earnings is finished and right at the end, the numbers were pretty good. 

The main reason why equity markets have risen so much we have seen positive earnings revision for the first time in many many years. We could chalk up another positive here as well. 

In order to have further upside potential, we really need to see more earnings upgrades, and the only way this can happen is to come from better economic conditions. So far the jury is out on that one, I am afraid, but we will wait and see what will happen. 


The other area our analysts are looking at is the ECB story. There is an ECB meeting in june, where we will hear from draghi about the potential tapering which could potentially occur in 2018. 

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Quant Investing Could Be The New King On Wall St - The Quants Run Wall Street Now

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 Quant Investing Could Be The New King On Wall St - The Quants Run Wall Street Now

" Quant Investing Could Be The New King On Wall St - The Quants Run Wall Street Now" 

in the news  Quant Investing Could Be The New King On Wall St - The Quants Run Wall Street Now? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader see a lot of interest and acknowledgement with bigger funds this month with just how important Quants are on wall st. We are at the beginning stages of the acknowledgement and really realize the dominance.

What we are looking at is this is now a real factor and not just some conspiracy theory out there like some are predicting. While some people are referring to "hey who are these whiz kids with the algorithms" and "is this stuff seriously going to make you money" well the answer to that is multifaceted, but over the last 12 months, billions of dollars have been made using this special new technique. 

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Right now its all about your discipline, process, technique and the data crunching fire power. But little by little and day by day you have these traders out there using quants to capture these fleeting moves. 

This is really what we use to call fundamental investing, however its just used in a disciplined way, where you use data, earnings momentum and its happening in a more regulated fashion. 

But with alot of millennials saving money and going and putting their money in some of these quant funds, do they really understand what is going on, and how their money is being invested. And the real question is what sort of transparency is there going to be in the future about what sort of physical trades are being made. 

That is a funny question, and there is an irony here, and that is the investors in quant funds, are getting more comfortable with the process. But even as that is happening, its getting much more complicated, the models are much more complicated, the algorithms are much more complex, and not what they use to be.  
Lets be honest, these are not high frequency investors, because sometimes they hold their investments for a few months, and that gets the members or investors a little more comfortable. In the past, these funds were advertised to hold for a few minutes or in some cases, hold positions for just a matter of a few seconds. 

The real reason people are moving from the more traditional type of techniques of investing are because, why would you put money into active type fund managers, where the performances have worse for years, they charge way to much fees, there is more data they cannot digest on a daily time frame, then there is the old school technique of talking to old school investors and also ex employees, you cannot do that any more. So in some ways, that is why the quants are doing better, because the other old school type investors are doing so poorly. 


Also we have to remember these quants have an overall edge in the current times. You might want to argue that we don't yet quite understand that edge, but due to the very good performance over the last 24 months, its pretty clear that they have one. That is largely greater than that of the active investors who sit down and crunch numbers, and you cannot get that extra added advantage anymore. That is why quants have a very very bright future on wall st and over the last 12 months have just attracted even more clients to their funds.  

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How To Invest In The Drone Revolution - How To Invest In The Drone Revolution

How To Invest In The Drone Revolution! 

Our Diamond Members are learning how to secret invest in the DRONE industry, no matter the level and your investing experience. How cool right? We are living in a time where science fiction movies, and ideas about weird technology such as drones is now becoming a reality!! 

Not only is this cool but if you educate yourself properly, and study where the smart money is going you can profit and have fun at the same time.

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the financial sector - financial sector analysis

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the financial sector - financial sector analysis

"the financial sector - financial sector analysis" 

in the news the financial sector - financial sector analysis? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader can see A domino effect from the bond market could lead to a correction in stocks. We will see.... There are no guarantees with this stuff. 

U.S. Treasury yields are hovering near one-month lows and a significant move lower may trigger a correction in equities. First there is an important chart. 

Sectors like financials could be threatened, adding the best-performing groups of the year "will top out at some point, and leave the broader S&P 500 Index vulnerable to a more material correction later this year.

The reflation trade centers around stocks that benefit from higher inflation and yields, including financials. Investors and traders have been betting that inflation will rise under Donald Trump's presidency as he moves to enact an agenda that includes lower corporate taxes and infrastructure spending.

The Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLF), which tracks the S&P financials sector, has been a stalwart since Trump's victory, rising more than 17 percent since Nov. 8. However you can see that the Chart is starting to depict a head and shoulders pattern, and which is seen in the books of the best technical analysts as not being a particularly strong chart pattern going forward. So it could be a bit of a warning sign shorter term.  

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But the reflation trade has been under siege lately because of the decline in rates. The benchmark 10-year note yield has fallen from about 2.41 percent to 2.24 percent since May 10 and hit a one-month low on Wednesday. Financials, meanwhile, suffered their worst day since June 24 earlier this week on the back of the U.S. stock market's worst session of 2017.

Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday on news that former FBI Director James Comey put together a memo outlining a conversation in which Trump asked him to halt an investigation into Michael Flynn's ties with Russian officials. Flynn is Trump's former national security adviser.

Hunter noted that if yields fall, sectors like financials could be threatened, adding the best-performing groups of the year, technology and consumer discretionary, "will top out at some point, and leave the broader S&P 500 Index vulnerable to a more material correction later this year."

One could adopt a much more defensive bias if the market internals do not improve in the weeks ahead, the leadership groups start to form bearish momentum divergence patterns, and we are looking at certain levels as the market target zone this summer."

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mexico is the new china

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mexico is the new china

"mexico is the new china" 

in the news mexico is the new china? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader 

There are some analysts that say they are bullish on emerging markets, because they see alot of flows coming back to the market in those areas. Meaning some of the smart money is placing their chips there. However one of our analysts are saying is that the investors in 2017 are underestimating inflation. 

We think there is a bigger divergence in the market right now between official inflation as opposed to what is actually happening out there in the real world especially in the emerging markets.  overall inflation seems to be drifting higher, and it can have enormous consequences for all emerging markets, the way we see it. 

I can see that the Mexican stock market is under-loved, but still have relative strength and when you look at their stock market is actually broken out of a longer downtrend. 

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We do not really share these charts on the blog, but we are in a giving mood, recently as some of our predictions have been playing out nicely over the last few months. We have not seen fresh money and fund flow into areas such as japan and china, but we do have a rather secret idea, because over the last 7 weeks, we have seen smart traders with big pockets start to move their pocket money to places such as MEXICO. Yes!  China has risen to fast, and we believe that MEXICO could be the next china.

Laugh if you will, but let us explain. Its 30% cheaper, but its quality control is in the American Standard. There have been other countries rely on Vietnam and Cambodia, and in the last 24 months we have seen manufacture leave china very rapidly and move to these countries in droves. 

Over the recent 12 months, we believe the mexico-Texas Midwest quarter, right now is the number one destination for capital flows for global markets right now. 

Even with the Donald Trump planning to build an almighty mexico wall, and even with other problems surrounding mexico with trump as president, why would we tell people about this? 


The answer is pretty simple. With wages so cheap, and quality control so high, and their willingness to allow foreign investment, is much increased compared to the past. It makes for a very nice recipe we think in the coming 24 to 36 months, as we see it. This is one place to keep your eye on. 


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What Weak Volatility Means For Markets - What Weak Volatility Means For Markets

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What Weak Volatility Means For Markets

"What Weak Volatility Means For Markets" 

in the news What Weak Volatility Means For Markets? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader wonders what does the Weak Volatility mean or say about the market. The current low volatility is the lowest we have seen in the most period of extended time... study the chart below....this has many people talking!! Also our clients. This is quite interesting. 

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This is making some invesors nervous but from the peaks low volatility is actually GOOD for the stock market. From the most recent 52 week high, to the current low.

So what does this all mean, really?? That is what the bigger traders on wall st are talking about. Its not doubt that we are currently in a bull market, but is lack of a pullback in the stock market actually UNHEALTHY? 

Well, that could be the case, and the over the last 20 day ranges, the average pullback in the stock market right now with historically LOW vix is half of 1% and that is the lowest we have seen since 1993. 

The funny thing is, lots of retail traders out there are saying, that this just has to expand, and there for this sort of situation, including the low vix MUST BE BEARISH!?

But what you find time and time again, significant to market tops, is that the intraday trading ranges will EXPAND first as the market is still going up!!  

So very narrow daily trading ranges, and very low drawn downs that we are seeing at the moment, is not actually characteristic of a MAJOR STOCK MARKET top!... Its more characteristic of a strong healthy up trends. 

You saw this situation in the mid 1990's and then as you got into the last 1990's and towards the end of the bull market that is when you saw the ranges start to expand. The same thing occurred in 2004 and 2005 and then they did not really start to expand till 2007, just before the stock market CRASHED horrifically. 

Most investors will be quick to say LOW volatility means a stock market crash is coming....That could be the case but as market analysts, but what we are trying to point out is that if there was a real big sell off coming, you might be seeing a warning sign by the market, and very big large daily trading ranges first.

So far as we watch the market each day, we do not see many of those signs showing up on our screens. 

With the max drawdown we saw earlier this year of only 3% we could see something more like a 5% or 6% correction later in the year. That is very possible as the market is very overbought at these levels.

If history is anything to go by, you do not normally see big larger sell offs, and or crashes if you are in a solid uptrend and at the same time experience narrow daily ranges at the same time. For that to happen you would need to see larger volatile swings for weeks before that type of even was to occur. 


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Death Of The Department Store - Death Of The Department Store

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Death Of The Department Store

"Death Of The Department Store" 

in the news Death Of The Department Store? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader has recently seen the retail sectors has gone through hell lately, but it is usually times like this is when people come up with the best ideas. We think the golden eras of the big bright department stores and malls are gone. But there still our some strong stores out there.Stores like nostrums and Macy's and these sorts of places.

It seems that recently retail is all about connecting with the custom or finding out who their customers are. In recent times, they have fallen short and forgotten that. So that is why we have seen some drama in these areas. Things like your presentation, your service, your value. ..


RETAIL SECTOR - or XRT

You can see that in the last 6 months the retail sector has gone from 48 all the way down to 42, wow. Something is a-miss. :-0

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These days companies like amazon, are connecting with their customers in a very different and transactional way. The retail experience has completely transformed. The reason stores and retail departments have been talking about is sale, and generating sales. Even though some online retailers are doing well, they realize in the end, they have to have a physical presence. 

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Stock Market Analysis May - Dow Jones Transports

Stock Market Analysis May - Dow Jones Transports

We have been watching dow jones transports for a while and is why we are a little hesitant. The transports chart is important and not many traders know you should watch it every day, as its deemed the leader of the market....

Here is the lastest analysis of the daily dow transports chart, with a pattern that could be sticking out, termed a HEAD AND SHOULDERS CHART!. 

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outperforming sectors - outperforming sectors

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outperforming sectors

"outperforming sectors 

in the news outperforming sectors? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader shows the view of what has been happening in the stock market lately. You can see since trump got in, there have been sectors peforming poorly and sectors performing really well, but with the rapid advancement in IPODS, IPHONES and other tech gadgets, look what is happening to the tech sectors on the stock market. Its one of those outperforming sectors right now. 


a very interesting chart today. This chart shows the only place for interest rates to go from here is higher. Well that is of course a hypothetical, but we will explain below. 

Looking at a chart of U.S. interest rates over the last two centuries, you can see that a bottoming formation that has been in place for the last several years. It will bring with it, many opportunities. 

We've been looking at the process that we think has been taking place over the last six to eight years in our interest rates, and we think now that the 2012 low probably is going to prove to be the low just the way 1946 proved to be the low in the last cycle, Please take a look at the chart below, and note the historical data that does go all the way back to the 1800's. This is quite interesting. 

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Shocking Bitcoin Prediction Was Correct

Our Shocking Bitcoin Prediction Was Correct!

We have gained a lot of media attention and excitement in the trading world, and we are proud to tell you that some of our members have created HUGE WEALTH in bitcoin lately. Keep reading......

Our Diamond Members just made 94% profit in 4 months on our secret bitcoin prediction   Yes +94% profit. These sorts of profits are unheard of. We released our alert back in December 2016. WOW. Here is our shocking video explaining our secret prediction and what is happening in bitcoin right now. Please Watch Our Live Webinar Presentation Below. 

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Oil just dropped to a 5-month low below - Oil just dropped to a 5-month low below

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Oil just dropped to a 5-month low below

"Oil just dropped to a 5-month low below" 

in the news Oil just dropped to a 5-month low below? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader saw today that Oil prices struck a new 2017 low on Thursday as mixed U.S. stockpile data compounded bearishness that has permeated the energy complex in recent weeks.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $49 and international benchmark Brent breached $49, both sinking to the lowest level since Nov. 30, the day the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut output.

Analysts said WTI could eventually decline to $42 now that it broke this key level..so far the chart of crude is hurting, and does not look pretty. This is quite interesting. 

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The move lower came after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a much smaller-than-expected drop in crude oil inventories and another week of soft gasoline demand.

John Kilduff, founding partner at energy hedge fund Again Capital, said there was no one headline moving oil on Thursday. Instead, he chalked it up to more technical trading.

"That $46 level ... is huge," so we will watch that.

On Tuesday, oil breached the previous week's low of $48.20, sparking a round of high-volume, late-afternoon selling.


Just before noon, U.S. crude broke through a major support zone flagged by Seaport Global Securities earlier in the day. The next critical level is $42.70.

Roberto Friedlander, head of energy trading at Seaport Global Securities, pointed to "terrible" demand for refined products, uncertainty around future oil consumption.

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