stock market volatility index - vxx chart

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stock market volatility index - vxx chart

"stock market volatility index - vxx chart" 

in the news stock market volatility index - vxx chart? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader is looking at the VIX chart and noticed some very interesting things. 

We feel the market right now seems complacent but stable. We even hit new highs today.....so Let us elaborate what we are talking about, we have probably had a very good start to the year. Over the last few weeks the market has topped out a little bit, but consolidating / in a sideways pattern.

Generally the markets are looking ok, but nothing has really crashed and burned, or fallen apart. So what we do want to take a look at is the VIX chart as you can see below.... Are things about to crash and burn and fall through the trap door like some out there are saying???

 Well, sure that is always a possibility. But if you look at the volatility index you can see it is extremely low right now signalling to investors are a little bit complacent but at the same time the level of the overall risk or a catalyst to cause problems is missing at the moment. So its hard to determine what is going to derail the markets in the midterm!! 

You can see that VIX is trying to break new lows at the moment, and is very very low. Right back down at the all time lows of support. We think this is very significant given the market has been volatile the last 12 months.....  

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The vix has been highly talked about subject this year. If you go back before the 2008 stock market crisis you can see periods of steady growth and supported monetary policy always generated low volatility so in the broader historical context we do not think the vix here is unnaturally low. It just seems low considering where we have been coming from and when you zoom back 10 or 11 years!

Due to the high markets, we do not need to be super exotic here we think there will be opportunities in the broader equity markets and equity spaces, we talked about => to our members [HERE] <= As long as you are selective. Its not a time to play pin the tail on the donkey with stocks here. That might not end up very good.  
Whether you are looking at developed markets such as EUROPE or USA or JAPAN we do see opportunities across the board, and that is not just at the market level, but at the sector level as well. We have posted about this earlier in the year. We could still see markets run up from here, but overall we still do remain more on the cautious side. 

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What Weak Volatility Means For Markets - What Weak Volatility Means For Markets

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What Weak Volatility Means For Markets

"What Weak Volatility Means For Markets" 

in the news What Weak Volatility Means For Markets? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader wonders what does the Weak Volatility mean or say about the market. The current low volatility is the lowest we have seen in the most period of extended time... study the chart below....this has many people talking!! Also our clients. This is quite interesting. 

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This is making some invesors nervous but from the peaks low volatility is actually GOOD for the stock market. From the most recent 52 week high, to the current low.

So what does this all mean, really?? That is what the bigger traders on wall st are talking about. Its not doubt that we are currently in a bull market, but is lack of a pullback in the stock market actually UNHEALTHY? 

Well, that could be the case, and the over the last 20 day ranges, the average pullback in the stock market right now with historically LOW vix is half of 1% and that is the lowest we have seen since 1993. 

The funny thing is, lots of retail traders out there are saying, that this just has to expand, and there for this sort of situation, including the low vix MUST BE BEARISH!?

But what you find time and time again, significant to market tops, is that the intraday trading ranges will EXPAND first as the market is still going up!!  

So very narrow daily trading ranges, and very low drawn downs that we are seeing at the moment, is not actually characteristic of a MAJOR STOCK MARKET top!... Its more characteristic of a strong healthy up trends. 

You saw this situation in the mid 1990's and then as you got into the last 1990's and towards the end of the bull market that is when you saw the ranges start to expand. The same thing occurred in 2004 and 2005 and then they did not really start to expand till 2007, just before the stock market CRASHED horrifically. 

Most investors will be quick to say LOW volatility means a stock market crash is coming....That could be the case but as market analysts, but what we are trying to point out is that if there was a real big sell off coming, you might be seeing a warning sign by the market, and very big large daily trading ranges first.

So far as we watch the market each day, we do not see many of those signs showing up on our screens. 

With the max drawdown we saw earlier this year of only 3% we could see something more like a 5% or 6% correction later in the year. That is very possible as the market is very overbought at these levels.

If history is anything to go by, you do not normally see big larger sell offs, and or crashes if you are in a solid uptrend and at the same time experience narrow daily ranges at the same time. For that to happen you would need to see larger volatile swings for weeks before that type of even was to occur. 


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vix chart - vix index chart

vix chart - vix index chart 

As you can see below the vix index chart is back up at its resistance and we warned that this is at a make or break area. Higher on the vix means that the market will face more trouble in the the short term. If the roof has been  put on the vix and we see more selling off, then money will start to flood back into emerging and also US indicies and equities.

vix chart - vix index chart 

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Bearish Rising Wedge

Bearish Rising Wedge

Stocks tumble 1% to end at lows as DC worries linger, Dow drops nearly 160; The Vix got above 20 today too. Take a look at the SPY Chart below. An interesting pattern has set up.

There seems to be a bearish rising wedge on the SPY, and it looks to be in a bit of trouble here. I guess the bullshit out of wall street and obamas mouth is finally taking its toll on these markets. Say no more, a break below the rising support line is bearish in my book.

bearish rising wedge

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stock market volatility index - Vix Weekly chart

stock market volatility index - Vix Weekly chart

The stock market volatility index & Vix Weekly chart is showing us something very important.

The stock market volatility index & Vix Weekly chart has been in a downdraft since the end of 2012, that is what is keeping the market so buoyant  Right now we are about 12.5 on the VIX weekly chart, and almost down at support again.

The thing about the recent support is that the VIX is having a hard time getting through these levels, so it is something we much watch. If we bust through these lower levels the Market will likely skyrocket. However if we go and touch these lower support levels and then bounce we will likely see some sort of a sell off, so VIX will be a good chart to keep a close eye on.

stock market volatility index - Vix Weekly chart

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vix weekly chart - vix weekly chart

vix weekly chart - vix weekly chart update

The  vix weekly chart  is very interesting right now. This is the inverse to the market. I have been seeing very large Call orders come through for the vix the last few days, which I think is very very interesting.

The vix weekly chart now has 3 black candles in a row. I went back on the chart and I could not see this formation for a year or so. So we are obviously seeing a fundamental shift take place in the market. The VIX and the vix weekly chart  is a good representation of this.

The vix weekly chart needs to break the 15 level, or down below the 12.5 level before we see a bigger shift and market movements take place.

vix weekly chart

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Dow Jones Transports Chart - Strong Dow Jones Transports Chart

Have a look at the dow jones transports chart below.

What we have noticed is that our breadth indicator charts have been spot on, as on the chart below, the dow jones trasports chart is showing us that we have hardly even seen one red day on the market this year. WOW!

Over $44 billion dollars has been put into work on the market since the 1st of January, and as  you can see they want to put this money to work, or make it work for them (as they say)

We said at the start of the year, DO NOT FALL IN LOVE WITH THE DOWNSIDE, and now you can see why!.

The DOW JONES TRANSPORTS CHART does look strong, and yes, a top will come soon, however we just look and read charts first, and the dow jones transports chart below is still looking very bullish.

dow jones transports chart

The vix chart below is showing us that it has been very suppressed lately and has struggled to find a bid. As you know the VIX is the inverse trade to the S&P and stock market, it has given the bulls just what they need to keep the market bullish and to keep that $44 billion dollars (we mentioned above) hard at work!!!!!!

Over the last few weeks, the VIX has tested the 14 level, and failed to get above, which has been helping the bulls. 

vix daily chart

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the vix

As you can see the vix is still surpressed, and that is going to give bulls a bit of energy they need.

It seemed that as soon as people stopped talking about 1500, now is probably the time it will come.

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Vix Chart & Tops

Taking a look at the daily VIX chart or the inverse to the SPX chart, we can see we are not at a top yet. The confirmation or warning sign will be more when we are down at the 14 region.

So far we are a long ways from that, and it will probably give more strength to any rally we see in the next month. For now, nothing has changed it is still buy the dip scenario.

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