upwards channel

The S&P over the last few days skidded up higher on jobs numbers and the fed announcement. 

The action happened on weaker than average volume as you can see below. Also we have been travelling up in a nice upwards channel, we bumped off the lower support of the channel a few days ago, and things have been bought up from there. Now we are up at point that you would call a line in the sand and resistance. If we can break through the 1600 level the bulls will come back, but if not, there could be trouble on the horizon. 

Even though the market has not done much for the last few weeks,  the next few days on the market are going to be very important.  

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stock market volatility index - Vix Weekly chart

stock market volatility index - Vix Weekly chart

The stock market volatility index & Vix Weekly chart is showing us something very important.

The stock market volatility index & Vix Weekly chart has been in a downdraft since the end of 2012, that is what is keeping the market so buoyant  Right now we are about 12.5 on the VIX weekly chart, and almost down at support again.

The thing about the recent support is that the VIX is having a hard time getting through these levels, so it is something we much watch. If we bust through these lower levels the Market will likely skyrocket. However if we go and touch these lower support levels and then bounce we will likely see some sort of a sell off, so VIX will be a good chart to keep a close eye on.

stock market volatility index - Vix Weekly chart

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Nasdaq weekly update - Nasdaq weekly update

Nasdaq weekly update


Taking a look at the nasdaq chart on the weekly timeframe we can see that for the last few weeks, things are getting tired. The nasdaq rallied up to the previous highs in September 2012 and had trouble to get above those levels. Now the nasdaq seems to be sinking a bit.

The below indicators seems to be suggesting, there is certain headwinds that are possibly coming for the markets. The stochastics are turning and are almost on a sell signal. So it seems the market right now has lost its spark, and we are getting a few warning shots 'across the bow' so to speak.

Nasdaq weekly chart

The USD dollar chart (or the inverse trade UUP) broke out of a falling resistance line in FEB 2013, and since then has been on a steady climb upwards. This significant strength, could be another warning sign.

USD chart

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Nasdaq Hourly Chart

Nasdaq Hourly Chart

Today we posted an update HERE on the nasdaq chart. We made some notes on how the nasdaq the last few days, has been doing nothing more than just coiling or in a low range tight price pattern and working out where it wants to go next.

If we have a look at the HOURLY Nasdaq chart, we can see that the very quick upwards rally has left a gap on the chart. This is highly unusual and we must warn you that these gaps do eventually close, sooner or later.

For now, however, since the 3rd of January we have topped and just going sideways, however on the nasdaq chart   the nasdaq seems to have found a bit of support, and we are oversold on the hourly, which means that in the next few days it is probable we will see some sort of bounce, and even a break out to the upside, depending on how strong the bulls feel.

Nasdaq Hourly Chart

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Bouncy Bouncy Bouncy!

Well, Say hello to the end of the 3rd Quater …

It seems the mutual funds sell S&P down on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and then we rally Thursday and Friday.

It is just a guess, but alot of the smart money was probably marking up the winners today ;)


I have zoomed back on the S&P chart to show you what happened the last few weeks, we seem to be bouncing off OLD resistance highs that were made way back in APRIL 2012. That is very interesting!

I posted USD charts yesterday explaining what was happening in the USD HERE and its line in the sand move!  It is very interesting, and I would keep watching the USD for signs of what  the market does in the short term. 

The chart above still proves the bulls have not lost their swagger just yet ;-)

Happy trading. 

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