SPX DAILY CHART - Downward Channel

SPX DAILY CHART - Downward Channel


We are now in a clearly defined downwards channel on the S&P 500. This market has been in serious trouble since the 1st Of August! Something tells me we are not done on the downside yet, but with the SYRIA crisis overhead and also the TAPERING news, things sure are getting interesting!!

SPX DAILY CHART - Downward Channel

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dow jones industrial average high - what next

dow jones industrial average high

The recent dow jones industrial average high  was interesting but what is next for the market leader. That is an interesting question. As you know sentment trader does like to watch the dow jones industrial average as this is the leader of the market, normally if you can analyse this chart correctly, you can get a gauge on what is coming next for the S&P and other US indicies, and also the global markets, as it does tend to be a leader for those sometimes.

Right now there have been some significant developments with the dow jones industrial average chart.

If you have a look at the dow jones industrial average below you can see that there is a pure line in the sand, at about the 5900 level. There is good support there the buyers keep coming in at, however we feel that the bears at the moment are not only having some fun, but winning the tug-o-war if you like.

The dow jones industrial average chart has been hitting lower highs since the start of March 2013 and that is another warning lower prices are on the cards soon. We will watch and wait.

dow jones industrial average

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upwards channel

The S&P over the last few days skidded up higher on jobs numbers and the fed announcement. 

The action happened on weaker than average volume as you can see below. Also we have been travelling up in a nice upwards channel, we bumped off the lower support of the channel a few days ago, and things have been bought up from there. Now we are up at point that you would call a line in the sand and resistance. If we can break through the 1600 level the bulls will come back, but if not, there could be trouble on the horizon. 

Even though the market has not done much for the last few weeks,  the next few days on the market are going to be very important.  

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Spx update - spx weekly update

spx weekly update

The market sold off into the weekend with talks about North Korea on the verge of war and the spillover from the Cyrus crisis.

Unemployment still remains a big problem and the market did not like that at all, and we still have a gloomy outlook. However when we take a look at the chart below, we can see the market even through the bashing, and bad news has remain pretty buoyant. Perhaps people are jumping to conclusions too soon, and we do not have a big reason to panic just yet.

It is clear the market is totally dislocated away from any bad news at the moment as a whole. There have been a few blips and blops along the way, however the market still has strength attached to its name.

spx weekly update

As you can see, we are still in a major bullish uptrend, and things are not looking too bad in the bigger picture. A few months back we even included the bull / bear ratio chart that convinced us we are still in a bull market. When you take a look at this chart you can see why.

This week was not good for the market, that is for sure. Further more it could even be the start of a much larger correction as we have been hinting. But for now the leader of the market the dow jones transportation average still remains above critical support and above the major averages.

It would be wise to monitor these support levels in the coming weeks, as a breach of these levels would not bode well for the markets.  But until that happens there is no real reason to throw hands up in the air and panic.


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Nasdaq - sideways channel

April can be a boring time on the market in terms of the trading calendar. As you can see we have not really done much since the end of March.

When Easter time comes, the smart money is normally out of the market and will not hop back in till the end of this week or early next week. So again the market seems to be in limbo.

The chart below shows the Nasdaq in a lazy channel. No one is really winning the battle as the market is directionless for now. When the smart money comes back that could be a different story.

The hourly chart below shows nothing more than a bump and grind sideways.

nasdaq sideways channel

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McClellan Timer chart - McClellan Timer chart

McClellan Timer chart below.

As you can see the McClellan timer chart is a good chart to spot divergences. The chart below is showing us that the Nasdaq has been in a nice upwards channel since the very beginning of 2013. We have not busted out of this channel on the up side or the down side.

The most important thing on this chart is that the NAMO market breadth has been declining for the last few months, while the price has been increasing slowly and steadily.

The NAMO is still in positive territory and that is a good thing for the bulls, and due to the face we are still in that upwards channel drawn below, that is also favoring the bulls.

The worrying thing here is that rising price, and falling NAMO is not bullish typically.

This chart is now telling us that the 3150 or around this level is very significant.

McClellan Timer chart 

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Dow Jones Transports - Dow Jones Transports steaming ahead

The market at the moment is steamrolling ahead. Amazingly we are only now just a 2 or 3 points away from our 1500 target! WOW! You have to love charts, and also technical analysis, I do not claim to be a guru or a psychic, but I do know how to read charts properly and forget the news. That is how we are so accurate with our calls.

Right now the tick data is yet again at oversold levels, and we shall see a rally in globex or open hours I think.

tick data

Dow Jones Transports chart. 

Take a look at the Dow Jones Transports chart and have a look at the very nice upwards channel we are in. This is proof that the bulls are still alive and well. As we have been saying for months, we are still in buy the dip mentality, which has not only been correct, but a smart thing to do since the start of 2013.

Looking at the Dow Jones Transports chart we seem to think higher prices are coming.

dow jones transports chart

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All About The Jobs Numbers Tomorrow

Well was a good day all round, but we must remember that the market is still trending upwards. Too many traders are trying to call a top and getting burnt!!! OUCH!

As you can see the market did try to break down out of this upwards channel, but the bulls came right back up, and now we are trading in the channel again. You do not have to be Einstein to work out that is pretty bullish, at least in the short term.

As I have been mentioning lately, it is all about the USD, and see how the price came right back to the falling resistance I was talking about a few days ago! WOW! It stalled and back down we went today, to give bulls another excuse to take the market higher. 

The market at the moment seems to take a few days to back and fill and create a higher low, and then then the bulls come right back to take the market higher.

Friday it will be all about the JOB numbers. So I do not think there will be much action till the numbers come out during the day on FRIDAY!!

Happy trading.


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