Why investors are turning to Asia - Why investors are turning to Asia

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Why investors are turning to Asia

"Why investors are turning to Asia" 

in the news Why investors are turning to Asia? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader can see, that Growth is picking up in Asia, where equities are cheaper compared to the U.S.

We have had 12 great weeks on the market with many leading assets rising, and that has partly to do with very low levels of volatility globally. And when volatility is low, asia trades with benefits.  There is strong trade growth in asia with treasuries remaining sideways, plus the fact that every time TRUMP has a spart few minutes, he decides to start tweeting negatively about china and asia. So this is actually not hurting them, its only helping them get more exposure. 

Also with the fantastic run in the US, asia is comparatively cheaper, to the US stock markets. And of course growth is picking up in many of the leading assets too.  

There were two arguments coming into the start of the year, were high treasury yields, and the other one being the positive growth in Asia, because there is an ideology that Asia is usually seen as a laggard in terms of the US or European economies. But given the developments this year, growth in Asia has as surprising upside, both in macro and in the earnings space. So we saw that there are charts reflecting that, and here is one.....

CHECK OUT THE CHART BELOW, it seems to be in a steady up trending channel right now.....

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Given that the markets are still sitting nicely, where is the most interest in Asia right now? That we think is the most important question.  Well there is still lots of growth in the emerging space or MSCI china. Those are hot on the lips of some bigger traders right  now and we thought we would pass on this information.  
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the financial sector - financial sector analysis

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the financial sector - financial sector analysis

"the financial sector - financial sector analysis" 

in the news the financial sector - financial sector analysis? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader can see A domino effect from the bond market could lead to a correction in stocks. We will see.... There are no guarantees with this stuff. 

U.S. Treasury yields are hovering near one-month lows and a significant move lower may trigger a correction in equities. First there is an important chart. 

Sectors like financials could be threatened, adding the best-performing groups of the year "will top out at some point, and leave the broader S&P 500 Index vulnerable to a more material correction later this year.

The reflation trade centers around stocks that benefit from higher inflation and yields, including financials. Investors and traders have been betting that inflation will rise under Donald Trump's presidency as he moves to enact an agenda that includes lower corporate taxes and infrastructure spending.

The Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLF), which tracks the S&P financials sector, has been a stalwart since Trump's victory, rising more than 17 percent since Nov. 8. However you can see that the Chart is starting to depict a head and shoulders pattern, and which is seen in the books of the best technical analysts as not being a particularly strong chart pattern going forward. So it could be a bit of a warning sign shorter term.  

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But the reflation trade has been under siege lately because of the decline in rates. The benchmark 10-year note yield has fallen from about 2.41 percent to 2.24 percent since May 10 and hit a one-month low on Wednesday. Financials, meanwhile, suffered their worst day since June 24 earlier this week on the back of the U.S. stock market's worst session of 2017.

Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday on news that former FBI Director James Comey put together a memo outlining a conversation in which Trump asked him to halt an investigation into Michael Flynn's ties with Russian officials. Flynn is Trump's former national security adviser.

Hunter noted that if yields fall, sectors like financials could be threatened, adding the best-performing groups of the year, technology and consumer discretionary, "will top out at some point, and leave the broader S&P 500 Index vulnerable to a more material correction later this year."

One could adopt a much more defensive bias if the market internals do not improve in the weeks ahead, the leadership groups start to form bearish momentum divergence patterns, and we are looking at certain levels as the market target zone this summer."

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Is The bull market coming to an end - Is The bull market coming to an end

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Is The bull market coming to an end

"Is The bull market coming to an end" 

Is The bull market coming to an end? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader After the US election and Donald Trump getting elected, and investors watching the market skyrocket to new highs in a matter of weeks. Is this all just a false rally? And is the bull market finally coming to an end? 
These are very interesting questions. We have just witnessed a rally we have not seen in over 40 years. Its quite historical. Mix that with the stock market, very close to the 20,000 level on the DOW, a level many top wall st traders say is a very psychological level. 

The Stock market is not the only huge rally we are seeing, the US dollar is up 20% in a few months, after the fed decided to hike interest rates by a quarter point, and upped its forecast for the 3 hikes in 2017. That means, we could be looking at the very beginning of interest rates lows, and before we start to see the fed hike rates over the next few years. 

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Many top analysts feel that stock traders have been looking over the shoulders recently at bond yields, fearing bond devils run rates up so much that the stock market gains are now going to be choked off. Still even though the stock market has had a few down days, the momentum still seems to be on the upside. It seems buying momentum has not slowed down at all. 

The market may be on the move, but some strategists on wall st are saying this Trump rally is getting a little bit long in the tooth, and telling their members that stocks cannot keep going up in a straight line for months on end. Eventually we have to pause or even seeing some sort of correction. 

Let’s be honest, that the speed of this rally on the stock market has not only been historical, it’s been a little surprising. So in a way, there are certainly risks to the upside when you look at the stock market, and where have come from, and where we are right now. It’s probably much better to wait until Donald Trump is sitting in his chair in the Whitehouse giving orders, and to see how some of his fiscal policies are going to be implemented in 2017. 

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If Donald Trump cannot deliver on some of his promises, this is not only going to be very bad, it’s going make investors feel uncertain, and when investors get nervous and feel uncertain about the economy or the stock market, that is usually a clear sign they will want to sell, and it will obviously put a stop to the current bull market rally. So at this stage of the race, its probably a wise move not to get excited here. 

Normally when people get excited and start selling their house, car and kids to get long the market, that is a sign they are too late to the party, and you might want to take notice of this too, so you do not get caught up in too much of the hype yourself. 

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Will the trump rally continue?

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Will the trump rally continue

"Will the trump rally continue 

in the news Will the trump rally continue? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader have been asked do we think the trump rally continue?

Quite an interesting question, and we will try to answer that the best way we know how!!

Our thoughts are that with a few days left in 2016, Retail investors typically pile into stocks in the fourth quarter, but are seasonals really enough to keep this skyrocketing market going?

Since Donald trump won the us elections, it seems lot of investors are jumping on the bandwagon here. But how much will that make a difference to the overall stock market. So far we have seen a move of over 4% in the overall S&P 500 post-election. And there are a lot of things at play here over the coming months.

If we go back over 37 years, we are coming into a time where we see what is termed a Santa clause rally. That just means that historically speaking, this fourth quarter a lot of active traders or retail trader are coming back to the stock market and piling into stocks.

Just recently we have gotten some more positive economic data, trump is urging to making America great again, and we still have the post-election euphoria going on at the moment. So we could see some more gains, into the end of the year, like we typically do. But the market this week, is pausing a bit, after such a historical run, you can see the S&P chart below!

This is quite interesting As the S&P500 has thrown itself into a skinny upwards channel, that we have been watching! The bulls have not only sunk their teeth in they have been utterly relentless. Look at the chart below!. 

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It is wise to use a bit of caution as the markets run up a bit now since the US Elections was about a month ago! But still, investors seem to be quite bullish so close of the end of year. We were not be so sure. 

If the market is set to move higher into the end of the year, where should the investor be looking. Some of the larger investors on wall st have seen the trend of higher markets into the end of year, and some possibilities would not to be looking at the strength, but take a more contrarian approach  to look to some of the sectors that have been beaten down, sectors such as the biotech, or the pharmaceutical sectors and some of the stocks, that are holding well. Stocks like Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer would be an example. 

These are some of the multinational companies that pay a very nice dividend. They have solid growth, and their P/E ratios are a lot lower than some of the sectors that have been skyrocketing lately.

If the market is really going to keep rallying into the end of the year. And if we really are in one of those situations of being in a SANTA CLAUSE rally, the stocks that are suppressed are more likely to pick up some steam, and get a second wind as we cruise into the next few weeks!


What is interesting at the moment is that the market has not stopped rallying for the last few weeks. This has not happened for a few years. So we will see where we end up. But one thing is obvious, all the nay Sayers that kept calling for a horrific stock market crash if Donald Trump got in, have not only been proved wrong, they have LOST lots of money in the process. It seems we are now in an environment where people actually are starting to realise Donald Trump will not be so bad for the stock market and economy as a whole when he takes oval office in 2017. Time will tell if he actually follows through on his policies, but we are always of the opinion to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

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Will the stock market continue to rally in 2017

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Will the stock market continue to rally in 2017

"Will the stock market continue to rally in 2017" 

in the news Will the stock market continue to rally in 2017? What this all about..... See below. 

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Well there are many people talking up the market, and then there are others who say a catastrophic event is on the way very soon. There is accumulating evidence that the economy is very much strengthening, and if this is the truth, that could be very good for the economy and stocks in 2017. 

Although we can have a very optimistic view. We must take into consideration TRUMP will be president next year, and no one is really sure what is in store for us. So there are a few simple warnings for investors.

If the bull market continues for the next few months, and does not take a pause. Then what you have on your hands is a market that is vulnerable. Meaning, the higher we go, the more chance we will have of some type of serious correction.  If we get higher interest rates, and we have a strong US dollar as well that would be something many investors will be afraid of, so we have to be careful here, to think the market will go skywards every week without some type of pause. 

Let’s be honest, since Donald trump Got in, the market shot up fast, and may be getting a little ahead of itself.  Think of a helium balloon, once the balloon is fresh with helium it will go up and up, but there will be a point as which the balloon will start to lose its strength, and then deflate and stop ascending. 

The equities in the US have been going higher since Donald Trump’s surprising victory. Some have been referring to this as the TRUMP RALLY, or the DONALD TRUMP rally. Maybe this is a coincidence because people are sick of the lies from the democrats and want change. Maybe Donald Trump getting in, could mean a cleansing out for the economy and stock market and that could be a good thing. Time will tell. 

You can now see that the S&P has broken the very solid resistance at 2175 and we have exploded UP very very violently. 

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What we have to remember is this current bull market could continue, and the reason is due to lower tax rates and a business environment that is much friendly, once Trump is actually in the white house office.

Smart money is already starting to shift to consumer staples and discretionary plays, as well as technology. It seems Donald trump is going to support these areas, and there could be huge growth potential in the next 4 years.  That would be an area some of the smart investors are looking right now as we head towards 2017.

With better economic growth and tax reforms that would mean small- and mid-cap stocks will benefit quite extensively, but if the US dollar was to keep rallying, that would only hurt larger multinationals. 

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How To Profit From Trump Presidency – 3 Stocks You Need To Invest In Now

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How To Profit From Trump Presidency – 3 Stocks You Need To Invest In Now

"How To Profit From Trump Presidency – 3 Stocks You Need To Invest In Now" 

Read How To Profit From Trump Presidency – 3 Stocks You Need To Invest In Now? What this all about..... See below. 

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How To Profit From Trump Presidency – 3 Stocks You Need To Invest In Now

While no one expected Donald Trump to win the presidency, he was able to pull off the impossible and secure one of the most powerful positions in the world. And whether you agree with his policies or not, the reality is he is going to be the next President of America and if you want to profit from his presidency, here are 3 stocks you need to invest in right now. 

#1 – Cemex  -- CLICK HERE - To Get Our Daily Charts & VIP Updates

One of Trumps most popular messages during his campaign was the fact he was going to build a wall to make America safe again. Not only is he planning to build a wall 1,000 miles long, but he is also planning to have Mexico pay for it. 

If the wall should become a reality and Mexico is forced to pay for it, you can believe they will source all materials locally. 

Cemex is a San Pedro based company that generated over $14 billion in net sales in 2015. $2.8 billion of those net sales came right from Mexico which makes it a very smart investment as we head into a Trump presidency. 

#2 – ExxonMobil    -- CLICK HERE - To Get Our Daily Charts & VIP Updates

I think its safe to say Trump has what many would call a militaristic zeal. When speaking to Bill O'Reilly about defeating ISIS Trump was quoted as saying, "Take back the oil. Once you go over and take back that oil, they have nothing. You bomb the hell out of them, and then you encircle it, and then you go in. And you let [ExxonMobil] go in." 

If this should happen it would mean a very big payday for ExxonMobil. And while many believe Trump's proposition to bomb the hell out of ISIS is quite ridiculous, it would still drive up oil prices and make a lot of companies a lot of money in a relatively short period of time. 

#3 - HCA Holdings  --  CLICK HERE - To Get Our Daily Charts & VIP Updates

Part of Trumps plan to make America great again is to allow Veterans to go anywhere they want to get the health care they need. If this should happen the use of VA hospitals would decrease and non VA hospitals would almost instantly become more profitable. 

HCA Holdings is one of the leading health services holding companies in the world. They operate and manage around 168 hospitals and 116 freestanding surgery centers in 20 U.S. states and England. 


If Trump has his way with the Veterans Administration you can expect HCA Holdings stock price to go through the roof.

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Russell 2000 Winning Streak Longest in 20 Years

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Russell 2000 Winning Streak Longest in 20 Years

"Russell 2000 Winning Streak Longest in 20 Years" 

in the news Russell 2000 Winning Streak Longest in 20 Years? What this all about..... See below. 

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Well this week was quite interesting on the stock market, the Russell 2000′s Winning Streak Longest in 20 Years

Investors are betting that President-elect Donald Trump will relax regulations, lower taxes and pump money into infrastructure projects

Perhaps nowhere else in financial markets is speculation on the ultimate success of Trompononics more rampant than in shares of small U.S. stocks.

Small company shares on Friday notch their longest winning streak in 20 years on a shortened Black Friday trading session. The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4% in in the shortened session to book its 15th advance in row. This streak ties a run last seen in February 1996. The longest ever streak, 21, was hit back in 1988.

Big-cap stock benchmarks also booked all-time highs on Friday, as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each rose 0.4%. Since the election, however, small caps are the clear winners.

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So far, the Russell 2000 has climbed 12.7% since Election Day, compared with an advance of 3.5% for the S&P 500

Investors are betting that President-elect Donald Trump will relax regulations, lower taxes and pump money into infrastructure projects. Such policies should benefit small caps more than there larger brethren. For one thing, U.S.-based companies are best positioned to benefit from improving domestic growth that results from stimulus spending. Financial and energy companies, which carry significant heft in small-cap benchmarks, are likely to get a lift from dergulation, analysts say. What’s more, small-cap stocks tend to have the highest effective tax rates, since larger multi-national companies can defer U.S. taxes on profits earned overseas.

And. smaller companies also look well positioned should the anti-trade rhetoric voiced during the Presidential campaign season materialize in real policies, a headwind for multi-national companies that do big business abroad.

The price-to-earnings ratio of the Russell 2000 has jumped to 20.3 based on earnings over the past 12 months compared with 17.8 just before Election Day, according to FactSet. The current reading is near the highest recorded over the past 20 years.

For the S&P 500, the trailing price-to-earnings is up to 18.3 from 17.5 at the end of last month.


History suggests that long streaks of gains tend to keep going. We will see about that. On the heels of the 1996 streak of gains, the Russell 2000 was 2.2% higher after the first month and 8.4% higher over the next three months

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200 years of US interest rates in one chart

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200 years of US interest rates in one chart

"200 years of US interest rates in one chart" 

in the news 200 years of US interest rates in one chart? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader shows a very interesting chart today. This chart shows the only place for interest rates to go from here is higher. Well that is of course a hypothetical, but we will explain below. 

Looking at a chart of U.S. interest rates over the last two centuries, you can see that a bottoming formation that has been in place for the last several years. It will bring with it, many opportunities. 

We've been looking at the process that we think has been taking place over the last six to eight years in our interest rates, and we think now that the 2012 low probably is going to prove to be the low just the way 1946 proved to be the low in the last cycle, Please take a look at the chart below, and note the historical data that does go all the way back to the 1800's. This is quite interesting. 

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The yield on the U.S. 10-year has surged to 2.3 percent following the election on higher inflation expectations under President-elect Donald Trump and the potential for a Fed rate hike next month. This is quite amazing....

Maybe it would not be very healthy [to raise rates], just yet but We are definitely watching 3 percent because that's going to be the ultimate level at which we can definitively say that rates have reversed. That 3 percent also corresponds with the 1980 downtrend on the chart you see above. 

We are looking at the formation of the higher low, and the 10-year note would have to put in place a slightly higher high to define the real technical evidence of the reversal. So far there is no evidence of that, but it seems that when you look at the chart, there is going to be a VERY LARGE rally coming down the pipe soon enough. We do not know when, but we are keeping an eye on things. 

Ultimately, when you think about it,  higher rates will boost equity prices in the near term, as past cycles have signaled a boom in stocks and the economy.

The early stage of a bull market can be accompanied by the initial rising rate cycle, It isn't until you get to about 5 percent that you start seeing or start having very big problems. So we thought we would talk about this, in regards to TRUMP stepping into the white house soon, and his a bit of a swinging gun. NO one really knows what he is going to do, when he is actually in office. 

The S&P 500 closed Thursday within a fraction of its all-time high

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That unusual surge in the dollar is coming thanks (in part) to Donald Trump

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That unusual surge in the dollar is coming thanks (in part) to Donald Trump

That unusual surge in the dollar is coming thanks (in part) to Donald Trump

"That unusual surge in the dollar is coming thanks (in part) to Donald Trump" 

so That unusual surge in the dollar is coming thanks (in part) to Donald Trump? What this all about..... See below. 

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The dollar index raced higher, in an unusually swift move against the yen and other currencies, as short-end bond yields spiked to a six-and-a-half year high.

Here is the chart.... as the USD hit a new high. WOW!

That unusual surge in the dollar is coming thanks (in part) to Donald Trump

Currency investors pinned the move on Wednesday's stronger-than-expected durable goods report, coupled with longer-term expectations that a stimulus plan from President-elect Donald Trump will rev up the U.S. economy and possibly force an earlier cycle of interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve.

As for the bond market, strategists said while durable goods and the rising dollar were a factor, they also pointed to developments Europe.

"We had decent data in the U.S. We also have U.K. yields, which are rising on the Treasury statement which projects a significant increase in borrowing post-Brexit,"  The U.S. 2-year yield, the sector most sensitive to the Fed, jumped to 1.14 percent, its highest level since April of 2010.

But there was also action related to the European Central Bank, which moved sovereigns in Europe and sent ripples through the U.S. market. The German 2-year bund yield retraced some of its losses, and was around -0.70 percent. The 10-year bund yield jumped to about 0.30 percent from a low of about 0.20 percent. The U.S. 10-year yield rose to 2.40 percent, its highest level since July, 2015.

The German bond market has been under a lot of pressure this morning, and almost the complete opposite of what we saw in the last couple of days. There's been a scarcity of paper, and apparently the ECB is going to try to provide some collateral in the market through repo, using shorthand for a repurchase agreement used to raise short-term capital. It's early days to know what' s going to happen, but it feels very technical and I would not just attribute this to U.S. data."

Strategists also said the move in the short-term yields was not a reaction to the upcoming Italian referendum, which was driving Italian bond yields higher Wednesday.

The dollar has been rising on expectations that interest rates will rise with the Trump fiscal program and tax cuts. The dollar index hit a new high Wednesday of 101.9, its highest level since March 21, 2003, when the dollar index traded as high as 102.15

Strategists have been forecasting that the euro would move to parity with the dollar, but the bigger drama was between the dollar and the yen Wednesday.

We have to remember the dollar/yen broke 111.40, a key level, and that in turn sent it to 112 and 112.50. It was at 112.90 in late morning trading.

It's just all positive U.S data creating a huge amount of stop running in the currency market. it took out a very big level in dollar/yen, meanwhile the charts are the most important thing here. And we continue to watch the chart. 


We have our overall outlook for pending 2017 period in the coming newsletter

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A big market shift may be creating a sweet opportunity for stock pickers - A big market shift may be creating a sweet opportunity for stock pickers

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A big market shift may be creating a sweet opportunity for stock pickers

A big market shift may be creating a sweet opportunity for stock pickers

"A big market shift may be creating a sweet opportunity for stock pickers" 

Stock pickers, as a group, may or may not outperform the broad market going forward. But it looks to be getting a bit easier for them to do so.

Here is a chart of the indexes. 

A big market shift may be creating a sweet opportunity for stock pickers

After Donald Trump's presidential win, the correlations among S&P 500 stocks have fallen markedly, to nearly the lowest level in two years.

As stock performance becomes increasingly disparate, the theoretical manager who is skilled at determining which stocks will outperform and which will underperform should generate a greater degree of outperformance.

What makes the drop in correlations especially notable is that it was caused by a large, external event; these types of events frequently cause correlations to rise.


The election was the first macro event in about 18 months where we started to see dispersion at the stock level.

The technical analyst also noted that the average stock is now outperforming the S&P 500, thanks to the impressive relative performance of smaller stocks. This is another condition that creates a favorable environment for those who select particular stocks, as performing better than the widely watched S&P 500 becomes easier.

The stock picker is getting paid to do his job.

There does appear to be a lot of work ahead. The first half of 2016 was the worst first half of a year ever for active managers, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch data set that goes back to 2003.

And of course, not every active manager can do well at once, since the market cannot outperform itself.

If some stock pickers are outperforming the benchmark, that must mean that others are underperforming (so long as the benchmark is a fair one — the group of small-stock managers can beat a large-stock-skewed index). That is, dispersion creates the opening for more dramatic outperformance, but also for more dramatic underperformance.

Still, for active managers anxious to prove their worth, this could be their big opportunity..


We have our overall outlook for pending 2017 period in the coming newsletter

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