Web Statistics The Sentiment Trader
Showing posts with label interest rates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label interest rates. Show all posts

Thursday, 24 November 2016

200 years of US interest rates in one chart


200 years of US interest rates in one chart

"200 years of US interest rates in one chart" 

in the news 200 years of US interest rates in one chart? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader shows a very interesting chart today. This chart shows the only place for interest rates to go from here is higher. Well that is of course a hypothetical, but we will explain below. 

Looking at a chart of U.S. interest rates over the last two centuries, you can see that a bottoming formation that has been in place for the last several years. It will bring with it, many opportunities. 

We've been looking at the process that we think has been taking place over the last six to eight years in our interest rates, and we think now that the 2012 low probably is going to prove to be the low just the way 1946 proved to be the low in the last cycle, Please take a look at the chart below, and note the historical data that does go all the way back to the 1800's. This is quite interesting. 




The yield on the U.S. 10-year has surged to 2.3 percent following the election on higher inflation expectations under President-elect Donald Trump and the potential for a Fed rate hike next month. This is quite amazing....

Maybe it would not be very healthy [to raise rates], just yet but We are definitely watching 3 percent because that's going to be the ultimate level at which we can definitively say that rates have reversed. That 3 percent also corresponds with the 1980 downtrend on the chart you see above. 

We are looking at the formation of the higher low, and the 10-year note would have to put in place a slightly higher high to define the real technical evidence of the reversal. So far there is no evidence of that, but it seems that when you look at the chart, there is going to be a VERY LARGE rally coming down the pipe soon enough. We do not know when, but we are keeping an eye on things. 

Ultimately, when you think about it,  higher rates will boost equity prices in the near term, as past cycles have signaled a boom in stocks and the economy.

The early stage of a bull market can be accompanied by the initial rising rate cycle, It isn't until you get to about 5 percent that you start seeing or start having very big problems. So we thought we would talk about this, in regards to TRUMP stepping into the white house soon, and his a bit of a swinging gun. NO one really knows what he is going to do, when he is actually in office. 

The S&P 500 closed Thursday within a fraction of its all-time high

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Sunday, 28 August 2016

One trader has a strategy to win big from the Fed's rate ping-pong match

One trader has a strategy to win big from the Fed's rate ping-pong match

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One trader has a strategy to win big from the Fed's rate ping-pong match



One trader has a strategy to win big from the Fed's rate ping-pong match
One trader has a strategy to win big from the Fed's rate ping-pong match



One trader has a strategy to win big from the Fed's rate ping-pong match

One trader has a strategy to win big from the Fed's rate ping-pong match... What it is?

Well, One trader has a strategy to win big from the Fed's rate ping-pong match ...so here it is below.

The markets remain confused after Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen's Friday morning speech at Jackson Hole. However, one trader is making a bet in case a rate hike becomes more likely.

Todd Gordon of TradingAnalysis.com sees a possible interest rate hike on the horizon, and believes that certain sectors are set for some big moves.

"The sectors that are responding the most are those interest rate sensitive sectors," Gordon said Friday on tv  "Trading Nation." These include consumer staples, which Gordon believes are in danger of a move to the downside should the Fed follow through on its hints to hike rates.

"Right now, it looks like the markets are starting to price in a Fed rate hike," he added. "If interest rates move up, that means the interest rate-sensitive sectors like XLP should move to the downside," Gordon said, referring to the exchange traded fund (ETF) that tracks consumer staples stocks.

Yellen said that "the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months," but pointedly refused to set a timetable for a possible increase of the federal funds rate target.

The XLP did see a drop following the Fed chair's speech as the markets attempted to decipher her words. Since it offers a dividend yield of nearly 3 percent as compared to 2 percent for the S&P 500, the ETF is relatively sensitive to bond yields. The ETF holds stocks such as Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Philip Morris and Altria.

Looking at a chart of the XLP, Gordon determines that the ETF is on its way down. He looks at a previous drop from $56 to $54 to determine that the recent highs of $55 could go down by the same $2 different to $53.

Looking at the XLP chart, you can see how well this has been traveling in an upwards trend. So far so good, but we think there could be more downside to come, if this rising support line BREAKS  over the next few weeks, and the FED KEEP up this PRESSURE talk about the INTEREST RATES!.  That could be a likely scenario and a good trade to watch for. 


As a result, Gordon wants to buy the October 55-strike puts and sell the October 53-strike puts for $0.81, or $81 per options contract. Gordon's trade has him risking $81 to make a total of $200—a whopping 147 percent return.

"If XLP moves back above the $55 mark, I want to cut the trade, protect any premium that's remaining, and move on to the next trade," said Gordon. "But otherwise, we should be able to go down to the $53 in the face of a potentially increasing interest rate once this Fed ping-pong match is over." -    Source : Cnbc.


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Sunday, 22 September 2013

Debt Ceiling Issue Come Next

Debt Ceiling Issue Come Next

Right now the Stock market anxieties will turn to debt ceiling issues.

That is the talk of the town right now, and the next major hurdle for these markets.

Political risk. Democrats and Republicans are fighting again about the nation's finances. What's the risk? If they fail to pass a funding bill before the new fiscal year starts Oct. 1, a government "shutdown" is possible. And if they don't raise the debt ceiling in coming weeks, the nation could run out of money to pay its bills and default on its debts. It might be just rumours again, like we had with the fed tapering stuff.

How Congress and President Barack Obama deal with the debt ceiling is likely to determine market volatility for the rest of the year I think.

Now that the expected tapering of $85 billion a month in asset purchases fizzled out at the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting, investor attention has shifted to the brewing showdown over the budget and the debt ceiling.

The Congressional Budget Office sees U.S. debt at 100% of GDP by 2038 at current budget rates.
Adding to pressure is a Congressional Budget Office report in the past week showing that national debt is now 73% of GDP and that the federal budget “cannot be sustained indefinitely.” So when you look at the RUSSELL weekly chart below, things do not add up. But then again, when you do some heavy research, and the TRUTH comes out to how the real crisis in 2008 started, you would not believe your eyes.

RUSSEL 2000 WEEKLY CHART!

RUSSEL 2000 WEEKLY CHART!
RUSSEL 2000 WEEKLY CHART!

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