Web Statistics The Sentiment Trader
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts

Tuesday, 27 December 2016

Where to invest if inflation hits us like a freight train


Where to invest if inflation hits us like a freight train.

"Where to invest if inflation hits us like a freight train." 

Where to invest if inflation hits us like a freight train.? What this all about..... See below. 

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There are many investors that agree the economy in 2017 is going to accelerate with Donald trump as the president. Some very smart investors are now saying that if this does actually go ahead, and it does look likely its going to have very serious impact on current interest rates, the dollar and inflation. 

A lot of investors are asking what we should do, and where you should invest once inflation comes back to haunt us. Long term rates reflect a supply and demand for money. Lately yields have been rising and that could mean the Federal reserve are going to tighten and Donald Trump is actually going to help the economy start growing again. 

A lot of investors still think that right now bonds have further to fall. Even after bonds have taken a real battering. That means rates have a very very long way to rise. 

The US dollar is another vehicle that has been doing very well lately. If the fed really is going to raise interest rates, that means that foreign investors are going to start to put their money into the US, and take advantage of the rates, and rate rises. And this would mean the US dollar, already on and upward trajectory will probably just keep going higher, and hit new highs.  Current ETF’s that track the current US dollar moves, only seem to suggest more signs of ultimate strength for the US dollar. Time will tell. 

Under a Trump administration, he is already hinting things like  “make America Great again” and a pillar of that is the return to inflation. Looking at the monthly CRB index or commodities as a whole, you can see the last 10 years, its obvious we were in deflation. 

In recent months it has been trading in a complex sideways narrow channel. What caught traders attention was that the action or pattern is sometimes referred to as a cup and handle pattern, which 85% of the time a reliable signal that the stock or index is about to rally or make a possible move  higher or experience more buying power. So that would be another angle or avenue to take. 


When you also look at the fundamentals, the charts seem to suggest that interest rates are going to head higher, the US dollar will continue to rally higher, and we will see inflation come swiftly. So if these three things are actually going to happen, Trump talking about making the USA great again, could actually come to fruition. If all this played out, the economy and certain industries would get their certain groove back, in a big way.  That is why you need to keep watching these three very important charts as we head into 2017. They could present some very good opportunities, especially with Obama out of office. 

You can see on this chart, just how low interest rates have been for too long. IF we look back in history they obviously do not stay that low for long periods. 





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Thursday, 4 August 2016

Investing In Gold and Silver – 3 Things You Should Know

Investing In Gold and Silver – 3 Things You Should Know

Gold and silver have long been recognized as valuable. In the last 5000 years gold is the only form of money that has never failed. That alone should tell you why investors flock to precious metals in time of crisis. Both gold and silver are two of the safest investments you could ever make. They also provide you with the best opportunity to increase your wealth.

If you are considering investing in gold and silver, here are 3 things you should know before you take the plunge:

#1 – Precious Metals Can Protect You From Inflation and Deflation

Both gold and silver can serve as hedges against inflation and deflation. Because of this, there are some experts who believe gold is an asset everyone should invest in. Andrew Carrillo, one of the top financial planners in Miami, advices all of his retiree clients to have at least 5% of their portfolio invested in gold. He himself has 50% of his total investment assets in gold.

And as he so eloquently stated, its not running out of money that's the biggest risk when you get ready to retire. Instead its running out of purchasing power due to inflation or deflation. Gold and silver can protect you from both.

#2 – Precious Metals Do Not Generate Income

This is one of the main reasons other experts advise against investing in gold and silver. Unlike most investments, precious metals do not generate income. The purpose of investing is to generate an income. This is especially true when you are nearing retirement.

In some cases you may be better off investing in dividend paying stocks or high quality bonds instead of gold and silver. Generally speaking stocks will appreciate over an extended period of time and are fully capable of dealing with inflation.

#3 – High Taxes

This is yet another reason you may want to reconsider investing in gold and silver. The government views gold as a collectible. Because of this you will be taxed as high as 28 percent on any profits you make as a result of selling your gold. When you sale your stocks, you are only taxed as much as 15 percent. That's a big difference.

When it comes to investing in gold and silver, the key is to focus on diversification. You should never put all of your eggs in one basket. You should also avoid gold collectibles or coin products that are considered rare. If you are serious about investing, buy bullion. 


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Sunday, 22 September 2013

Debt Ceiling Issue Come Next

Debt Ceiling Issue Come Next

Right now the Stock market anxieties will turn to debt ceiling issues.

That is the talk of the town right now, and the next major hurdle for these markets.

Political risk. Democrats and Republicans are fighting again about the nation's finances. What's the risk? If they fail to pass a funding bill before the new fiscal year starts Oct. 1, a government "shutdown" is possible. And if they don't raise the debt ceiling in coming weeks, the nation could run out of money to pay its bills and default on its debts. It might be just rumours again, like we had with the fed tapering stuff.

How Congress and President Barack Obama deal with the debt ceiling is likely to determine market volatility for the rest of the year I think.

Now that the expected tapering of $85 billion a month in asset purchases fizzled out at the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting, investor attention has shifted to the brewing showdown over the budget and the debt ceiling.

The Congressional Budget Office sees U.S. debt at 100% of GDP by 2038 at current budget rates.
Adding to pressure is a Congressional Budget Office report in the past week showing that national debt is now 73% of GDP and that the federal budget “cannot be sustained indefinitely.” So when you look at the RUSSELL weekly chart below, things do not add up. But then again, when you do some heavy research, and the TRUTH comes out to how the real crisis in 2008 started, you would not believe your eyes.

RUSSEL 2000 WEEKLY CHART!

RUSSEL 2000 WEEKLY CHART!
RUSSEL 2000 WEEKLY CHART!

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