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Showing posts with label stock market crash. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock market crash. Show all posts

Sunday, 28 May 2017

Is the bull market looking tired - Is the bull market looking tired


Is the bull market looking tired

"Is the bull market looking tired

in the news Is the bull market looking tired? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader has readers asking Is the bull market looking tired?

that is a good question we think....

what is really surprising to us especially the market performance of the Korean market, which is one of the best in ASIA at the moment, not only because of it being in Asia but  of the strength of the Huyng, and has been relatively strong verses the US Dollar. 

Not many people are looking at the pricing of risk, so with the risk in check, that could mean there could be a headwinds looming and things are not looking as good as they could be leading into the summer time period. We have some powerful charts that monitor that. It would mean there could be downwards reaction, so going into the next few months, we are warning clients to be a bit more on the cautious side. 

Here is a chart of the stock market, and yet again, YES, we have yet again broken out to new highs. :-)



Is the Bull market starting to look a bit tired? Really? Well all we can say is we can take a look at the hard data, which has surfaced. That is saying, for a long time valuations have been a bit stretched. What we are talking about is 1 standard deviation above the average 10 year trading average

As you read this post, the markets are pricing in a lot of positives coming out of economic growth, and more trump talks, and trump reforms, honestly we have not seen anything delivered yet. This just means we are rallying on hope of some good news, before the news is out. Sometimes this can lead investors into a false sense of security. But the way we see it right now, is that there really is nothing to panic about. 

But please stay in check, that in these sorts of situations there is always room for lots of disappointment. So if there is room for negatives right now, this would be it. 

The fed, is fully priced for another rate hike in June. So we will see what happens there. Plus earnings is finished and right at the end, the numbers were pretty good. 

The main reason why equity markets have risen so much we have seen positive earnings revision for the first time in many many years. We could chalk up another positive here as well. 

In order to have further upside potential, we really need to see more earnings upgrades, and the only way this can happen is to come from better economic conditions. So far the jury is out on that one, I am afraid, but we will wait and see what will happen. 


The other area our analysts are looking at is the ECB story. There is an ECB meeting in june, where we will hear from draghi about the potential tapering which could potentially occur in 2018. 

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Wednesday, 28 September 2016

end of the world - end of the world as we know it

end of the world - end of the world as we know it

Hi ,
Heads they win, tails we lose… That seems to be the public’s mood after the first presidential debate. But instead of focusing on the political dumpster fire, let’s step back and take a ‘trader’s eye view’ of the election.  

Its been an EXCITING time for our members, and VERY PROFITABLE => CLICK HERE TO SEE!
This really is the ‘end of the world’ as we know it (but not in the way you might think). You see: Markets react to change. So we can expect to see some intense volatility before and after election day. Actually the aftermath could trigger a chain reaction in the global financial markets. For reasons I’ll explain in more detail during a special training next week, this election could be the most disruptive catalyst we’ve seen since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Regardless of who wins in November, now is the time to do two things… Take steps to make sure your portfolio doesn’t go up in smoke. Get ready to act on some truly unforgettable trading opportunities. You can call it the ‘Perfect Storm’… Or a ‘Tsunami’… Or a ‘Powder Keg’… Or whatever metaphor you prefer. But this truly is the end of the world as we’ve known it for the past 8 years. Let me be clear, one thing I am not doing is predicting Armageddon or anything. But if you look at past elections, there is every reason to expect dramatic price action. And this time could be like nothing we’ve seen before. That’s because the world economy has been propped up by central banks to an unprecedented degree since 2008. For a long time, all it took to make money was to buy the dips. Many seem to believe a rising stock market and low economic growth is the new normal. But don’t be fooled. Trillions in coordinated Quantitative Easing by central banks around the world sent the DOW to new highs (and interest rates to historic lows). There is just one big catch… Nothing got fixed. And, unlike in 2008, the central banks are backed into a corner. OUCH! In the last market meltdown, they papered over the problem with funny money. What are they going to do this time? Here’s the bottom line... The U.S. economy is the glue holding the global economy together, and the Dollar is the world’s de facto reserve currency. For the last 8 years, our markets have been the ‘flight to quality’ safe haven, but with this election everything could change. No matter who wins in November, uncertainty is the new normal. As traders, we’re fortunate that we can turn intense volatility into windfall profits. Even so, whether the markets go up, down, or sideways, NOW is the time to get ready. That’s why on October 5th, I’m doing a training devoted specifically to ‘Trading the Election’. The goal is to be prepared for opportunities in a variety of markets around the world, including stocks, bonds, currencies, and more… If you’re looking for sane ways to trade the upcoming insanity, I invite you to join me…
You can JOIN ME HERE => CLICK HERE NOW Also we soon show you why the next few months could be very exciting indeed (as long as you’re positioned correctly). Until then… Happy Trading

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Wednesday, 14 September 2016

next stock market crash 2016 - next stock market crash 2016

next stock market crash 2016
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next stock market crash 2016



next stock market crash 2016
next stock market crash 2016



next stock market crash 2016

next stock market crash 2016.. Is it here???

U.S. stocks closed mostly lower on Wednesday, with energy weighing, as oil prices fell sharply despite bullish inventories data.

"I think the market is trying to process the big question that we all have, and no, it's not the Fed," said Kim Forrest, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital. "The big question is: Is the economy getting better? We don't know."

The Dow Jones industrial average closed about 30 points lower, erasing earlier gains, with IBM contributing the most losses. At session highs, the Dow had risen 96.73 points. The S&P 500 fell less than 0.1 percent, as energy dropped more than 1 percent.

"Obviously, the market doesn't like uncertainty on any level," said Leslie Thompson, managing principal at Spectrum Management Group. "I think it's going to be hard for the market to move higher in the near term against this backdrop."

Stocks hit session highs after the Energy Information Administration said U.S. oil inventories fell by about 600,000 barrels last week, also sending oil into positive territory for a moment. Oil failed to hold those gains, as WTI settled 2.94 percent lower, at $43.58 per barrel.

Wednesday gains in stocks came a day after a broad-based sell-off in which equities, bonds, oil and gold all fell. "That's very typical of the beginning of a correction. As investors start realizing this is the real thing, you'll see more money flowing into traditional safe havens," said Chuck Self, CIO at iSectors. "Today could be a pause."

"Today's quiet economic calendar should help alleviate some of this latest bout of skittishness," said Jeremy Klein, chief market strategist at FBN Securities. "Portfolio managers will largely wait until the Fed announces its next rate decision before adjusting their exposure thereby giving short term market participants a clear playing field to operate in the interim. Prior to Janet Yellen's decision, I do not expect that the current pullback will spin out of control and transform itself into an official correction."

The Federal Reserve entered a quiet period on Tuesday, a day after several of the central bank's officials delivered dovish remarks. The three major indexes fell sharply Tuesday, as concerns over the Fed's monetary policy meeting and a 3 percent drop in oil prices weighed.

The U.S. central bank is scheduled to meet next week and deliver its latest decision on monetary policy. Market expectations for a September rate hike were 15 percent on Wednesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.



Looking at the TOF chart below , smart money is not buying here, and infact getting rid of dead weight stock. The last few days to us, look a bit worrying, but we will alert our premium members later tonight. CLICK the VIP members tab for more. 



Another element concerning investors is the U.S. presidential election. "The election is finally close enough to be a worry," said Randy Warren, CIO at Warren Financial. "[Donald] Trump is making things close and that's threatening the assumption within the market that Hillary [Clinton] will win."

According to data from RealClearPolitics, Clinton's lead over Trump has narrowed considerably since August. "Investors are very unconvinced about the direction of the market and are hesitating in placing their bets. This is reflected in the market today while there is also anxiety about Trump leading in the poll," said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets.

In corporate news, German drug and crops chemicals firm Bayer agreed to buy Monsanto for $66 billion, or $128 per share. Monsanto's stock was up about 0.62 percent. "Some of these larger mergers are under a lot of scrutinee as to whether they go through," Spectrum's Thompson said.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasurys rose after a large sell-off on Tuesday, with the two-year note yield near 0.75 percent and the 10-year note yield around 1.69 percent.

"If long rates have reached a major inflection point over the past month as I think they have, buying on any stock market dip becomes more fraught with risk I believe," said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group.

The U.S. dollar fell against a basket of currencies, with the euro near $1.125 and the yen around 102.3.  -    Source : Cnbc.


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Monday, 5 September 2016

Wall Street Week Ahead: Sleepy summer may give way to freaky fall

Wall Street Week Ahead: Sleepy summer may give way to freaky fall

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Wall Street Week Ahead: Sleepy summer may give way to freaky fall



Investors watching A Slow Slothy Market
Investors watching A Slow Slothy Market 



Wall Street Week Ahead: Sleepy summer may give way to freaky fall

Wall Street Week Ahead: Sleepy summer may give way to freaky fall... Is this true?

The dog days of summer have lived up to their sleepy reputation this year as far as U.S. stocks are concerned, but market gyrations could soon pick up as a traditionally more volatile time of year looms.

The S&P 500 index's 1-month realized volatility, a measure of market choppiness over the past 30 days, is stuck near all-time lows, according to Thomson Reuters data. Even the early-summer jolt from the surprise Brexit vote proved short-lived, and the S&P has not seen a 1-percent price move, up or down, on any day since early July.

Yet all that could change quickly given the abundance of catalysts that can rattle markets in the weeks ahead, market watchers said.

"If you look at September on average, it's a bad month," said Brad McMillan, Chief Investment Officer for Commonwealth Financial Network.

September ranks as the worst month for stocks, according to the Stock Traders Almanac, producing an average price return for the S&P 500 of negative 0.5 percent. Its reputation has grown more ominous since the financial crisis, because it was the month when Lehman Brothers went under in 2008, nearly taking the U.S. financial system down with it.

"There is a real good chance that the low volatility that we have seen in August hasn't just disappeared, it's just been storing up for September," he said.

While the holiday-shortened week itself is light on U.S. economic data, there is no dearth of trigger events in the near-term that could rile markets.

The possibility of a U.S. interest rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting, stretched stock market valuations, volatile oil prices, the fallout from Britain's decision to exit the European Union, and political risks linked to the U.S. presidential election are just some of the factors that could upset the volatility cart, analysts said.

"August, September and October, this is the wrong time of the year historically to get really aggressive, particularly given all these uncertainties on the horizon," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors in New York.

"If two or three of these go wrong … given stretched valuation levels, we could very easily see a little bit of a pullback."

Stock market valuations are stretched – the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P is currently above 17, compared with its long-term average of about 15 - leaving the market susceptible to a negative shock.

The Fed's policy meeting on September 20-21 is by far the biggest near-term risk to stock market calm as investors continue to struggle to determine the path of interest rate hikes by the central bank.

While U.S. employment growth slowed more than expected in August, hurting the case for a interest rate hike this month, the data is not weak enough to push a September rate hike completely off the table. "Any bad news could be an excuse to reduce positions and take a little bit of money off the table," Mark Watkins, regional investment strategist at the Private Client Reserve at U.S. Bank, said.

Investors will be dealing with a relatively light week on the economic front, with reports on the services sector likely to be the highlight.

The U.S. Presidential election is another factor that could stir up volatility as Election Day nears.

Looking at the chart, there are investors on blogs and forums all around the internet, who are hating this market. Its like a slow sloth bathing in the sun. Basically from our stand point, we have been in an annoying range, and the professionals have not been very active at all. A 30 point range on the market is not really going to help anyone really. But we are fast approaching months, that are well known to be fast, volatile and whippy. i.e. SEPT - NOV. Time will tell, and we will have to wait and see what we get. However we have seen periods of sideways before, which often lead to bigger faster moves, and you will have to be ready when that occur. Stand at the ready!!! 


"Wall Street starts taking the elections seriously on Tuesday," said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago.

"For the press, they've been great fodder for the fact that TV has to report twenty-four hours a day. But in general, Wall Street hasn’t taken it seriously yet, so we all get down to business next week.

The first presidential debate on Sept. 26 could help shed light on both candidates' policies.

"With everyone on one side of the boat, pricing a Hillary presidency, if suddenly something should happen such that people think that maybe Trump has a chance, that certainly increases volatility," Orlando said.

That could be one of those things that triggers near-term a hiccup in the markets.  -    Source : Cnbc.


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Sunday, 4 September 2016

How You Can Prepare For The Next Stock Crash

How You Can Prepare For The Next Stock Crash – 4 Things You Can Do Right Now

Chances are you are here because you are concerned about the future of your financial assets. Or maybe you are just full of anxiety over the direction in which society is moving. Either way you are not alone. Millions of people all over the world are highly concerned about the financial crisis that seems to be taking place all over the world.

If you are wondering how you can prepare for the next stock crash, keep reading as you will discover 4 simple things you can do right now to prepare for what's coming in the very near future.

#1 – Get Out Of Debt

When a stock market crash hits, those with the least amount of debt will be affected the least. Now is the time to get control of your debt. Pay off your credit cards and any other debts you have.

#2 – Protect Yourself

If you are retired chances are you don't have enough income to weather the storm in the event of a stock market crash. To avoid having to sell stocks and lose money, make sure you have enough money in short term investments to cover all of your living expenses for 2 to 3 years. To make this happen you may need to look at your investment portfolio and see what positions you can start trimming right now.

#3 – Rebalance Your Portfolio

If you are like most investors you haven't touched or even looked at your portfolio in years. When the stock market has crashed in the past, those who didn't take the time to rebalance their portfolios suffered very significant losses. This is because their exposure to stocks was a lot higher than they realized.

Rebalancing your portfolio ever year or two can help you avoid significant losses in the event of a stock market crash.

#4 – Make A Wish List

When the stock market crashes everything goes on sale. That means it is the perfect time to buy stocks. If you have your wish list prepared in advance you can cash in big time when the market crashes.

For some investors putting more money into stocks they already own may be enough. For others a stock market crash is the best time to buy up stocks that were previously too expensive. No matter which option you choose, having a wish list prepared in advance will help you take advantage of growth opportunities that come along with a stock market crash.



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Thursday, 28 April 2016

Icahn: Markets will have a day of reckoning


Icahn: Markets will have a day of reckoning
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Icahn: Markets will have a day of reckoning

Icahn: Markets will have a day of reckoning
Icahn: Markets will have a day of reckoning


Icahn: Markets will have a day of reckoning

Billionaire investor Carl Icahn is "extremely cautious" on the U.S. market, he told reporters "Power Lunch" on Thursday.

"I do believe in general that there will be a day of reckoning unless we get fiscal stimulus," he said, pointing to the Federal Reserve's maintaining low interest rates, and potentially creating "tremendous bubbles."

On the fiscal side Icahn argued that "you certainly could do more spending."

"The Republican party that I used to be more sympathetic with — I'm right in the middle now, although as you know I'm for (GOP front-runner Donald) Trump — but what I would say is Congress is in this massive gridlock obsessed," he said, explaining that the Republican-controlled Congress is "obsessed with this deficit to a point that I think it's almost pathological."

Worrying about a deficit when there is no significant inflation and the dollar remains the global reserve currency is not a smart way to govern, Icahn said, adding that "a country is not a company."

As for actual bets, Icahn said he thought some commodities companies could see their share prices rise, but he has "a huge short position on."

"The short position obviously isn't working that well as the market goes up, but I have not changed my opinion," he said.

The famed investor has voiced a bearish opinion before, telling reporters in September that markets looked "way overpriced" and that many investors had put themselves into "dangerous" positions.

 When you look at the apple chart, you can see the last 2 days, we gapped down HUGE! ouch!
The MACD on this chart has now entered a SELL SIGNAL, so you can see why Icahn did indeed sell his position. We break the lows seen in FEB 2016, and there could be even more trouble. 




Billionaire investor Carl Icahn told reporters on Thursday he has sold his Apple position as the tech giant's stock continues to shed value after disappointing earnings.

"We no longer have a position in Apple," Icahn told reporters "Power Lunch," noting Apple is a "great company" and CEO Tim Cook is "doing a great job."

Icahn previously owned a little less than a percent of the tech giant's outstanding shares, which were down more than 3 percent midafternoon Thursday after falling more than 6 percent Wednesday. He said he made roughly $2 billion on Apple, a stock he continued to tout as "cheap" despite his reservations.

Icahn said China's attitude toward Apple largely drove him to exit his position.

"You worry a little bit — and maybe more than a little — about China's attitude," Icahn said, later adding that China's government could "come in and make it very difficult for Apple to sell there ... you can do pretty much what you want there."

He added, though, that if China "was basically steadied," he would buy back into Apple.

The company on Tuesday posted quarterly earnings of $1.90 per share on $50.56 billion in revenue, both of which missed Wall Street's expectations.

Apple's sales declined 13 percent from the prior-year period, its first year-over-year revenue drop since 2003. Sales of its key iPhone slid to 51.2 million from 61.2 million the previous year.

One area of weakness for Apple in the quarter was the Greater China segment — comprising mainland China, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Revenue for that region fell 26 percent year over year to $12.49 billion. Previously, that area had posted consistent growth for Apple.
Still, "we feel good about China," he said earlier this week.
"We remain very optimistic about the China market over the long term, and we are committed to investing there for the long run," Apple CFO Luca Maestri said Tuesday.

Icahn noted he called Cook to tell him he exited the position.
The activist investor purchased his Apple stake in 2013. He previously said buying into the company was a "no-brainer."

Last May, Icahn said he had a $240 per share price target on Apple when it traded around $130 per share. As recently as September, Icahn said he considered buying more of the company's stock, saying it looked cheap. So if it looks cheap now, maybe it will look cheaper by the end of 2016.     Source : Cnbc.




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Thursday, 21 April 2016

People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way

People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way


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People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way 



People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way
People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way



People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way

The Dow industrials and the S&P 500 may be hurtling toward record highs, but the American people, whose love affair with stocks has understandably waned since the Great Recession, look to be more hesitant than ever to buy into the rally.

According to Gallup, only 52% say they currently have money invested in the stock market, matching the lowest ownership rate in the poll’s 19-year history.

In 2007, just before the markets were crushed by the collapse of the housing market, ownership hit a high of 65%. Stocks have recovered nicely since then, but it appears as if investor psyches still have plenty of healing to do.



People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way





Drilling into the numbers reveals that middle-class Americans are the most skittish when it comes to the market. Almost three out of four of those with incomes ranging from $30,000 to $74,999 said they invested money in stocks in 2007. That number has dropped to half, which is a much more severe decline than in the other income brackets.


People are falling out of love with stocks in a big way


It does seem the Boomersare leaving the Market in droves. The Market will see lows rarely hit and for a long period of time. Boomers took the Market up, now as they retire they will withdraw their safe money that could affect the market. Its an event Rich Dad, was talking about back in 2002. That it could take the market down. You can’t fight major economic shifts~! Now if the Market would go ahead and have a major Bear out, Boomers will be out and a new period can begin.

Greed and fear are great motivators. When the headlines read "DOW up 10 percent" or "DOW up 20 percent," the middle class buys in. No one wants to miss out on the next 10 or 20 percent move up.

On the other hand, when the headlines read "DOW down 10 percent" or "DOW down 20 percent," the middle class cuts and runs. Its like they PANIC..... No one wants to risk the next 10 or 20 percent move down.

The column states that the biggest decline in stock ownership is age group 18-34. Young people are impatient: they want positive results right away, and have no stomach for a 20-30 year investment plan.

At the expense of the middle class and poor. Compassion?

Many people got out of the market in 08 until we got rid of the fool.  Now the market has been like a steam tread rallying higher. 

Gee, I wonder if it's because 5 years of gains can be LOST in 3 hours, and if your mutual fund prices at the end of the day, it's too late???  What's the old saying, it takes the stairs up, but the elevator down! Well, lets not get carried away just yet, as the market has not really done much at all but act like a merry go round at the town fair. :-)

However, there is a saying to remember....Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice , shame on me.

Source : mw.com.


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Sunday, 14 February 2016

how to get rich off the stock market



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how to get rich off the stock market ?

how to get rich off the stock market
how to get rich off the stock market



so, how to get rich off the stock market ? Is is really as hard as people out there say it is? There are many things to talk about, when up to 90% of all retail investors fail, when it comes to getting rich off the stock market. So obviously its not a game for everyone!


I keep reading blog posts around the internet that start off like this. “Why this Market Will Never Go Down Again”, and you can see that since the very first week of 2016, this market has been getting hammered. Normally when you start reading these sorts of posts, its a warning sign to get out. While we think the bull market might still have legs, you have to realise, Bull markets do not last a lifetime, and the stock market, even if you go back 200 years, never goes up in a straight line. You will always get DIPS, BLIPS, sideways and lots of volatility in between. There does come a point where the market has had HUGE OVERBOUGHT values, and a little wash out is needed to bring things back to fair value. Basically that is what you are seeing right now. And we do not believe this washing out is over yet!!!



1. You Need To Think independently

Traders, it is essential that you think for yourself. There are so many bulls on Wall Street it’s hard to count. According to Wall Street “groupthink,” when the market is down, you buy stocks because the market is on sale. When the market is up, you buy stocks because you might miss out. In other words, you are always in the stock market, and that may be risky. IF you cannot think for yourself, you are basically and inevitably doomed as a trader. If you can consistently rely on  your thoughts, and your research and it makes you money consistently, we call that a "Reliant Trader" who instead of relies on others, can sit down in the chair do some reading, look at some charts and by the end of the week make some good profits.


2. You actually can Play both sides of the market

To be honest, in 2014 some turned bearish on the market, and it cost them a shitload of money. Instead of following the market trend, many people moved to cash and missed out on many good trading opportunities. They were everywhere. As one hedge fund trader in the movie,”The Big Short,” said, “I may have been early, but I’m not wrong.” One of his investors replied, “It’s the same thing.”

Since then, lots of investors have learned valuable lessons: Although it’s appropriate to have a bullish or bearish view of the market, you must be open-minded enough to play both sides. Sometimes your view of the market is wrong, or perhaps you are early. If you don’t admit or recognize your mistake, you will lose money. Unfortunately, most people won’t admit they are wrong, a costly error.

Think of the market is like a series of hills, like uphills, and downhills, rather than as only a bull or bear market. If you can free yourself from being permanently bearish or bullish, you can take advantage of short-term trends. This year, volatility has gone through the roof, so the current environment can be highly profitable for short-term traders, but, you probably have to be tied to your screen a bit more than the average trader, as the market in a matter of an hour, can snap completely the other way fast.

If you’re a longer-term investor, it’s more challenging. It appears as if the big bad bear is stalking the stock market and is ready to attack. And yet, if you are willing to play both sides, you can make money. To succeed, you need to have good timing skills.

The biggest mistake you can make right now is to put your head in the sand and refuse to believe that a bear market is looming. Just as the gloomy folks at popular blogs and forums missed out on years of stock market gains, if you don’t take action before a bear market arrives, you could lose much of your profits.

3. Here is What to do ?

Do your own research. Do not blindly follow the advice of a financial entertainer on TV, money managers who routinely predict 20% returns, or Chicken Littles who scare you into holding cash forever. Otherwise, you might as well take investment advice from George Constanza. (The “Seinfeld” character may have a “can’t lose” stock tip or two.)

During the last confirmed bear market in 2007, TV pundits and some financial advisors told investors that “conservative” stocks including Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Bear Stearns “were great buying opportunities.” Then these so-called conservative stocks got obliterated. And here we are, nine years later, and investors are told to sit tight during an ominous bear market because “stocks always come back.” Many are going to get fooled again.

4. Follow the market, not the opinion of others. 

The number 1 solution is to ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS follow the market trend. Only the market is right and it always has the final word. When the market trend is up, you are long. When the trend is down, you are short (or in cash). Right now, the market seems to be pivoting from a bull to a bear market, which is why there is so much volatility and confusion. But there is no reason to panic, and pull all your money out of the market. Basically sometimes its much easier to make money in a BEAR market, because things fall faster, and not many people realise that. If you are unaware, brokers love a falling market better than a bull market, as profits come to them, and they do not have to spend more long at the screen. In fact if you ask any professional trader, they will secretly tell you that they like it when the market falls, because things hammer down fast, and it happens 3 times as fast. But realistically the stock market is designed to go up, over time, not DOWN. If you have a look over the last 200 years what the stock market has done, its actually gone UP over TIME, not DOWN like many people try to tell you.

If possible, keep an open mind, remain unbiased and unemotional about market direction, and monitor your portfolio (even if someone else is managing it). If you’re nervous, come out of your basement once in a while and smell the flowers. Even during vicious bear markets, the world doesn’t come to an end. In fact, there’s always an opportunity somewhere to make money. It does not matter if the stock market is going up or down. Realise that you can make money when the market goes up, but if the market goes down really hard, just realise you can start shorting assets and because of the velocity of the dropping, it can actually be easier to make money on a stock when its losing value because it usually FALLS much faster than it goes up. Not many people realize you can do this, even in 2008 people went broke, because they held onto positions, when in fact, they could have bet against the market [put on short positions] and QUADRUPLED their money. 


 I cover more and more technical analysis ==> HERE in our VIP members section.




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Sunday, 29 November 2015

losing money in the stock market


are we in a bear market
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losing money in the stock market ?


losing money in the stock market
losing money in the stock market



Losing money in the stock market is never fun. When your risk is unlimited and the potential profit is small, it may not make sense to go to sleep on a short sale.

Shorting a stock is a bet that the share price will fall. Traders borrow securities and sell them, expecting to buy them later at a lower price and then return the stock to the lender. Then they roll around in their money.

Unless things go wrong somehow.

A very unlucky trader for whom something did go terribly wrong was profiled on MarketWatch on Friday.

Apparently, this gentleman had $37,000 in his brokerage account and at least 1 short position -- in the pharmaceutical company KaloBios Pharmaceuticals.

Before Nov. 19, the chart for KaloBios looked like a flat line. The stock was worth only a couple of bucks. The company was floundering. Flailing even. Things were not looking good.

But then, as the trader turned his attention elsewhere, the price went straight up in after-hours trading as a takeover happened. An infamous pharmaceutical CEO purchased a majority of KaloBios shares and the price quintupled between the close on the 18th and the next day's opening price.

His name is Joe Campbell, and he claims he went to bed Wednesday evening with some $37,000 in his trading account at E-Trade. One notable development on the pharma front later, and Campbell woke up to a debt of $106,445.56. Now, he may end up liquidating his 401(k). And his wife’s.

That’s where you come in. At least where Campbell desperately hopes you come in. Of course, sympathy in the trading community over such gaffes is typically in short supply.

His is a cautionary tale of getting caught on the wrong side of one of the riskier bets on Wall Street. When you’re long, the worst you can do is lose is everything. But when you’re short, everything and a lot more is at stake. He should have known better, no doubt, but you have to feel for this poor guy.

This is what a true trading nightmare looks like:

KaloBios KBIO, +30.79%  stock had exploded, running up about 800% at one point in late trading after Turing Pharmaceuticals CEO Martin Shkreli (yes, THAT Shkreli) gained control of a majority of the shares. KaloBios had announced last week that it was winding down operations because it was running out of cash while developing two potential cancer drugs.

Here is the chart that was staring JOE in the face after he got short. You can see the chart below. He got short [or betted against KBIO ] right before the price skyrocketed. OUCH!




Now the short seller owes E-Trade $106,446, MW reports. Or, slightly less now, as he set up a GoFundMe account to solicit donations to cover his mistake. Generous donors gave him about $5,000.

There's a good lesson here: Don't short stocks. Unless you can really afford to lose.

The very idea of short selling makes my stomach hurt. You tell me. Short selling: Good idea or not?

This is what apparently happened, as Joe explains in his GoFundMe plea. This is what he said, when he posted.

“I was holding KBIO short overnight for what I thought was a nice $2.00 fade coming,” he wrote. “At the close of the bell I saw the quote montage clear out and figured today there was no action after hours in the stock. So I went to my office for a long meeting. I got out of the meeting and saw a message from one of my buddy’s, he asked if I was ok since I was short KBIO.”

So now Campbell is coming to the community for some help. Good luck.

his latest comment was : “If you don’t want to donate I understand, at least read my story of what happened today and protect yourself from the same happening to you!” he wrote. “This is a terrible lesson for me but if this helps just one person than I’m happy I wrote this.”


In all my years, you see horror stories like this all the time. It happens, and you will never be able to tell who is good, and who is going to be bad in this game. All I can say is that technology makes it very easy to put your money anywhere, but by god, you better have a good plan. You see not everything out there is solid gold, while people have this rendition in their head that they will click a few buttons and make a shit load of money, it simply just does not work like that. 

With careful planning one can do really well. And with the rapid development in the social trading, and other technologies, one could make a mint in the next 5 years if you knew what you were doing.  You just have to sit down and think in your own mind, what are the risks I am taking and is this all worth it. But basically when all is said and done you must be able to show assertiveness and awareness by coming up with a short term plan and longer term plan. In all my years, people that set goals, and have a plan and then work that plan each and every day. These are the people that usually succeed beyond their wildest expectations. 


 I cover more and more technical analysis ==> HERE in our VIP members section.




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