Web Statistics The Sentiment Trader
Showing posts with label s and p 500. Show all posts
Showing posts with label s and p 500. Show all posts

Sunday, 6 November 2016

Election Dip, lets call it

how will the election affect the stock market

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Election Dip, lets call it. 



how will the election affect the stock market

election dip lets call it



election dip lets call it

Just how will the election affect the stock market ? election dip lets call it....

U.S. equities closed lower on Friday after the release of key employment data while investors braced themselves for the election next week.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended about 40 points lower, with Procter & Gamble contributing the most losses. The S&P 500 fell nearly 0.2 percent and extended its losing streak to nine sessions, with consumer staples leading decliners. The S&P's losing streak is the longest in almost 36 years. During that streak, the index has fallen nearly 3 percent.

The Nasdaq composite fell about a quarter of a percent. The three major indexes all posted weekly losses.

"Nobody wants to do anything today. ... Everybody is on hold for Tuesday," said JJ Kinahan, chief strategist at TD Ameritrade. "I think next week you'll start seeing Wall Street coronate winners and losers. What I mean is you're going to start seeing investors switching sectors very quickly."

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, rose 3.76 percent to trade near 22.9. The so-called fear gauge is also up more than 40 percent this week.

The race between Republican Donald Trump and his Democratic counterpart, Hillary Clinton, has become tighter since last week, when the FBI said it was investigating new emails related to Clinton. According to data from RealClearPolitics, the average spread between Clinton and trump is now just 1.7 points in a four-way race, down from about 5 points last week.

"The market is pricing in a Hillary Clinton victory, but it's also been pricing in a split ticket, with Clinton taking the White House and a split in Congress," said Tom Siomades, head of Hartford Funds Investment Consulting Group.

"I would consider this a middle-of-the road report. I think the interesting thing about the report is that Hurricane Matthew didn't adversely affect jobs growth. In the past, we've seen hurricanes depress jobs growth," said Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor.

But the bigger number in the report could be wages, with average hourly earnings climbing 10 cents and reflecting a 2.8 percent annualized increase, according to the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"This is a pretty positive wages picture and it's what you'd expect to see with such low unemployment," Glassdoor's Chamberlain said.

Investors have been paying even more attention to U.S. economic data as they try to determine the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising rates.

As you can see on the S&P 500 we have dropped about 100 points from the top in AUG - SEPT!!!! So we are about to see if HILLARY WINNING, what that will do. I hear all sorts of stuff, about what HILLARY winning will do for the investment world, but so far that means nothing as the market has investors all confused and not knowing what to do. As You can see we broke through support at 2100, and the market is still slip sliding away.  




What we can do is focus on the ELECTION, we are only 24 hours away from a results. But it smells like the USA is about to have its FIRST FEMALE PRESIDENT. Wow! If that was to happen, that is very historical.   -    Source : Cnbc.


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Tuesday, 2 October 2012

Walking On Water

The S&P is still in limbo while we wait for some sort of direction. But I do have some interesting statistics for you today.

But first the S&P 500 chart.....

It seems that over the last week or so we have created an ascending triangle. These are seen as bullish patterns, but we must first break to the upside and resistance line of the pattern first for more buyers to come back in. I significant break below the bottom ascending line will bring upon more selling. So now we just sit and wait!!!!


My intuition is telling me the US administration is going to do whatever it takes to push the market up going into the elections. And when you control the Treasury and own the Fed you can control the Stock Market Direction, despite a horrendous unemployment situation and a near comatose economy.

As a side note, what I want to say here, is that OCTOBER each year is known for its extremely large sell offs and even crashes that can occur on the market. But let me be the first to tell you it has also been known as the "BEAR KILLER" meaning there has been very significant gains or rallies in OCTOBER too.

Hope that puts things in perspective for you.

Happy Trading :-)

Monday, 1 October 2012

The Air Down There!

How is the air down there? Well I must say that the S&P did have a great start to the day, but then trust Ben Bernanke to come through and wreck that. The man got up shaking, his lips quivered, and we all know he was lying through his teeth, but this moron caused the S&P to sell off and wipe out its globex gains by the close. LOL. So a nothing nothing day really!

Looking at the chart, we have still broken the rising channel, and we seem to be forming a small consolidation pattern down there. Is this just a bear trap where we trap traders short and then shoot higher to the moon? or is this a bearish flag (a pattern that normally precedes lower prices) like some traders are seeing.




This market requires a bit of patience, but my thoughts are that even though we have broken the upwards channel the market is still holding its head above water for now. A break below the smaller line on the chart = bearish! But if the buyers take charge and take us back into that bigger rising channel, that will be very very bullish. But for now, we just need to be patience and wait. 




USD

Here we are on the USD. We have been talking about it being all about the dollar recently. The QE3 program is not good for the USD, but no matter what the news brings we must keep watching the charts. Right now the USD is at a make or break area. It is touching the falling resistance line that goes all the way back to JULY 2012. This is a very important area and the next few days are also important as a break will be bad for the US indicies, but hitting this line and then seeing bears come back will actually be very bullish for the indicies. But it is all about the USD right, so we need to be patient and watch as the week is young. :-D








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Wednesday, 26 September 2012

Line In The Sand - The USD and line in the sand

Line In The Sand - The USD and line in the sand

Our VIP ELITE GROUP have been going gangbusters lately. I did want to post something in the FREE section here.

What I did notice today is that the US Dollar is that is is coming up to the line in the sand here. Currently trading at 79.82 the real line in the sand (or falling resistance line points) is about the $80 level. If it can break through this level the S&P is NOT going to like that, and it will create more selling. However, if the USD fails to get back past this $80 level, then the S&P which has been Bullish lately will find even more support and we will shoot higher.

I am also here, to remind you that the QE3 buying starts on friday, so it is my opinion that things will be volatile around then and you will have to be on your toe. But for now, watch that USD chart...its quite telling. 

Happy Trading :-)


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Bonds Building - Market Still Tired

Well another red day on the market as we hinted at in the ( VIP ELITE GROUP HERE )

After a few weeks of bonds being very messy, alot of the bonds traders are jumping for joy as the chart has cleaned up a bit. Have a look at the weekly chart on BONDS below. It seems to be forming a bullish flag at the moment. It has not broken yet, and is only "looking" like a bullish flag, because it must break out of this pattern first for more buying to come in. That will put even more pressure on the market.



With the strength in bonds, the market (nasdaq) has now broken out of its upwards channel and the bottom resistance line, and continued down today on WEDNESDAY. If we look back it is obvious that we have not see 3 or 4 down HEAVY down days in a row, so my guess is that the bears still have the upper hand, but there will might be some sort of bounce coming, but we will probably have to wait till next week to see this happen, and also see how bad the bulls want it! :-)


The sentiment right now is still with the bears, and our breadth indicators are confirming that. Happy trading :-)

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Tuesday, 25 September 2012

Bears Won Today

Well the bears had a ball today! As was expected the Transports have been leading the charts and warning us that a day like this was in the works for weeks now. So I am not surprised.

Have a look at the hourly chart on the S&P it was pretty much a bearfest day from start to finish!!




With the TRIN over 2, and tick heading to the oversold area, I do think that ( Level For VIP MEMBERS ONLY ) level is coming very soon.  But patience is required.


On the daily chart the S&P is still within the upwards channel, but after today we zoomed back down and stopped right at the bottom of the rising channel. So now we are at a make or break level. The next few days will be interesting!!!!



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Friday, 7 September 2012

Bulls 2 Day March! - Ole


TGIF (Thank God It's Friday), Well it has been a long week, the jobs report came out today a little bit on the weak side, but again as sentiment keeps saying that really has not affected the S&P to the downside. We had a Very typical small range that normally occurs after a big up day. Even though it was a smaller range day today it seems that the bulls still have control of this market for now.



What we do want to note is that the market right now is up against its 1440 highs a level we saw back in MAY 2008, and that is a very important level there. Again, we must be cautious, but sentiment trader is warning there is a bit of a small melt up type situation that seems to be playing out.

The market still remains strong and within the upwards channel we have noted several days ago.

There is not much economic news coming in the next few sessions, however there is the FOMC next week, that alot of traders will be watching.

Happy Trading :-)

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