Vix Update - Vix Chart

It simple analysis here, the VIX simply melted back down near the recent lows and is having a hard time still. All eyes are watching wedneday to the FOMC meeting.

This VIX is still being suppressed, and just cant catch a bid at the moment! We feel that the VIX is going to find it a really hard battle to break the 15 - 16 area. Its all about the VIX right now, and now the shut down and debt crisis is over until at least next year the VIX is very telling.

VIX CHART

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1700 finally came

Well we finally hit our 1700 target. YEY! It has been a fun couple of months.  So now we wait to see what Mr. Market has in store for us next.

We rallied from 1550 all the way up to the 1700 and we have not see a nice rally like this for some time. This was an amazing run. We must wait to see what happens after FOMC week and the employment data on friday. It has been a long drawn out week, and I am ready for a stiff drink. LOL.

My guess is that this has been such an extensive rally, we could go higher, but something tells me the market is ready to take a break soon. Time will tell.

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The T Bomb - Taper time

It’s a very busy week for economic data. Investors will get their first look at second-quarter gross domestic product on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecast the data to show the economy grew at an annualized rate of just 1% after a mediocre 1.8% expansion in the first three months of the year.

Investors are closely watching the Fed for any further clues as to when it may begin tapering its purchases of government bonds. Concerns over a slower pace of stimulus was tied to a pullback by stocks last month, though equities soon recovered to see the S&P and Dow head back to record territory.

May I take a moment and remind you want happened last month back in JUNE when we had the FOMC meeting.

So..... do you remember what happened???.....

THIS!....

fed announcement sell off

Since then the FED has done nothing, no tapering, no withdrawal of stimulus, no shouting, just more B.S.  We have skidded up higher, and I find it uncanny the market is acting the way it is right before this major announcement. This might be a bear trap in the making as traders are starting to think about what happened last time. It could be a situation of ROPE IN THE BEARS, Before sending us up higher. Sneaeky!, but I can see that happening. It would be a good way to take money off the novice traders out there.

My guess (and it is a guess) is that nothing changes, Somehow the charts do not look like they are about to drop like they did back in JUNE. So my guess is that the news is coming out in charts first here, yes, no taper has started and they will not drop the T Bomb word just yet. It may however come into their vocabulary later down the track, but for now the market is in a holding pattern.  We shall see.

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Tomorrow's FOMC Trading Strategy

This week is a little tricky to trade at the moment, especially tomorrow with the FED meeting, and alot of my members have been asking what is the best way to trade the FOMC without risking alot of captial.

It is quite simple really, and this is the way I have done it for years!

I think it is more astute to go get out of the way of the announcement and just wait about 30 mins and see what happens. Sometimes there is some surprise moves to the upside and downside before the actual announcement so it is best to stay away right up until 30 mins after the announcement, then you can hunt and see if there are some nice opportunities that present themselves especially to the long side if the market continues along it positive trajectory.

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Bulls 2 Day March! - Ole

TGIF (Thank God It's Friday), Well it has been a long week, the jobs report came out today a little bit on the weak side, but again as sentiment keeps saying that really has not affected the S&P to the downside. We had a Very typical small range that normally occurs after a big up day. Even though it was a smaller range day today it seems that the bulls still have control of this market for now.

What we do want to note is that the market right now is up against its 1440 highs a level we saw back in MAY 2008, and that is a very important level there. Again, we must be cautious, but sentiment trader is warning there is a bit of a small melt up type situation that seems to be playing out.

The market still remains strong and within the upwards channel we have noted several days ago.

There is not much economic news coming in the next few sessions, however there is the FOMC next week, that alot of traders will be watching.

Happy Trading :-)

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