in the news Historic Run For Tech Sector? What this all about..... See below. ------------------------------ Sentiment Trader can see right now, a Historic Run For Tech Sector As the nasdaq pumps itself up higher and holds, what we have found interesting, we are up 23 or 27 sessions, and we can tell you that when we look back to our charts, going right back the market has never ever done that before. We are living in very interesting times. But this next chart might take your fancy!? Look at the XLK chart or the [ technology sector ]. What a fantastic chart!!! :-0 You can clearly see how this chart has been in an uptrend for many weeks now....[see below]
I guess when you go and look back at history, there are 2 ways to look at this :- 1) The first you could think OH NO, this is dot com boom type stuff, sell everything, lets panic!!!!! Or 2) the smart way to look at it, is MOMENTUM BEGETS MORE MOMENTUM, and its good news in the longer term we could be looking at more gains. So which is it? Well before we answer that we must admit, we have been witness to incredible momentum here. Have these bigger big cap, powerful technology companies taken off. Yes! Of course. But its nothing like the growth and skyrocketing we saw back in 1999. What we are looking at is the facebooks, the apples, and other companies like nvidia have exploded higher, and represent 11% of the 22% gains in the nasdaq. So in other words the top 5 holdings. Its nothing short of incredible!!! The question is will this continue? We think sure....at some pace, but in relative perspective you might be better looking at other pockets of the market, that are not gaining huge attention. Such sectors could be Utilities or finanicals, or even the transports, which have been lacking over the last several months. Will momentum go forward from here. Well, we would not bet against it, but as to reiterate, as a relative perspective point of view, there might be better value laying hidden in the market right now. A lot of this huge run in technology is based on earnings and revenue. Especially earnings growth. Earnings growth came in recently at about 12%, and that is what we can be expecting over the next 12 months. Valuations however, on a general basis are sitting at about 21 right now, which is looking a bit to expensive and overbought to us right now. But that does not mean we cannot go higher, of course. So all in all, we are following what the smart money is doing here. While they do not expect a 2008 type correction, they see valuations a bit [pricey] here and continue to be cautiously optimistic. DON'T MISS OUT ON OUR HOTTEST updates Click the link below....
in the news How to cash in on Goldman's sell off? What this all about..... See below. ------------------------------ Sentiment Trader shows a chart we normally do not show on our BLOG here. [ Our PREMIUM MEMBERS HERE ] usually get access to our DAILY updates. But we thought we would share some analysis with our readers this week.
After we warned of a DROP coming on GOLDMAN SACHS, that did actually arrive. You might have a bit of success looking out to the JULY Expiration, as there is a very important and major event around the earnings soon. So we are keeping a watch on that. The chart here is clearly showing us that this could be classic head and shoulders pattern on the chart! With the right shoulder forming as you read this post......
As a side note, this is one of the worst performing stocks on the DOW, so that is why goldman sachs has grabbed our attention. And that could mean there is more downside coming very soon. When you look at the price action above in the nice chart we have drawn, the signs are starting to look ominous we think.
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in the news stock market volatility index - vxx chart? What this all about..... See below. ------------------------------ Sentiment Trader is looking at the VIX chart and noticed some very interesting things.
We feel the market right now seems complacent but stable. We even hit new highs today.....so Let us elaborate what we are talking about, we have probably had a very good start to the year. Over the last few weeks the market has topped out a little bit, but consolidating / in a sideways pattern. Generally the markets are looking ok, but nothing has really crashed and burned, or fallen apart. So what we do want to take a look at is the VIX chart as you can see below.... Are things about to crash and burn and fall through the trap door like some out there are saying??? Well, sure that is always a possibility. But if you look at the volatility index you can see it is extremely low right now signalling to investors are a little bit complacent but at the same time the level of the overall risk or a catalyst to cause problems is missing at the moment. So its hard to determine what is going to derail the markets in the midterm!! You can see that VIX is trying to break new lows at the moment, and is very very low. Right back down at the all time lows of support. We think this is very significant given the market has been volatile the last 12 months.....
The vix has been highly talked about subject this year. If you go back before the 2008 stock market crisis you can see periods of steady growth and supported monetary policy always generated low volatility so in the broader historical context we do not think the vix here is unnaturally low. It just seems low considering where we have been coming from and when you zoom back 10 or 11 years! Due to the high markets, we do not need to be super exotic here we think there will be opportunities in the broader equity markets and equity spaces, we talked about => to our members [HERE] <= As long as you are selective. Its not a time to play pin the tail on the donkey with stocks here. That might not end up very good. Whether you are looking at developed markets such as EUROPE or USA or JAPAN we do see opportunities across the board, and that is not just at the market level, but at the sector level as well. We have posted about this earlier in the year. We could still see markets run up from here, but overall we still do remain more on the cautious side. DON'T MISS OUT ON OUR HOTTEST updates Click the link below....
