september stock market analysis - september stock market analysis

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september stock market analysis - september stock market analysis

"september stock market analysis - september stock market analysis" 

in the news september stock market analysis - september stock market analysis? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader show a very interesting chart today, just like in VIP members here  <= saw.  The healthiness of this rally is due to the fact that sustained areas of near these highs is because of the healthy rotation of sector to sector to sector. So there is a really very reliable chart that our members can look at, that is very very valuable here. This chart is one of the ones that everyone needs to see that will blow you mind! This shows we have never had a full year on the stock market, when the S&P 500 has had such a small draw down as we have had in 2017. Have a look at the chart below.....

All the way to the right side in orange. That is how small the max draw downs this year in 2017. A little bit more than 3%, and if it finishes the year this way, it will be the smallest ever seen since the year 1914. Wow! Some very good stats too look at. 

What is even more interesting is that people will point at this chart and say we have to get a mean reversion and we have to see a large correction soon. Sure! I can see that side of the argument. And sooner or later the volatility has to show up, and sure this is very bizarre and abnormal. But just because we get to these extreme readings, that does not mean you have to take everything off and we are bound to see a HUGE crash or correction. So its important to keep that in mind. The world does not work that way!!!

So I would not take this as a signal that we are about to see devastation coming to the market in the next month or leading into Xmas. Sure we can see dips, and blips coming our way, but what this is saying its been an incredible year for stocks, and profits, and for each and everyone of us to be careful going forward. 

We think September going forward is going to be a proxy for the entire year. When you think about all the challenges we have had this year, coming into September it has not caused us to dip or crash like some out there have been saying. There is a lot of resilience with the market here. Here is the chart of the MAX draw downs we have seen this year. Its very tiny. 

 This is quite interesting. 

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Our Members here => VIP members here  Have noticed One other factor that we should remember which is, when the year started, we had a very surprising election result. And there were many investors who were concerned about what was on the horizon, and with trump in office, they thought that would be a very bad thing, and they took money off the table. 

Although there is a lot of bearishness out there, there is the Russell up 5%, there is the banks up 3% and energy up 8%. And on and on it goes. 

One other factor that we should remember is, when the year started, it become up a very surprising election result. And there were many investors who were concerned about what was on the horizon, and with trump in office, they thought that would be a very bad thing, and taken money off the table. So through the course of this year, we have had good quarter after good quarter and decent earnings as well. People who have not been fully invested have had to put some money back in the market the last few months, and again this week, because they do not want to be left behind. 

Does this chart we put up [see above] make us here at sentiment trader nervous? well, sure! It does! Everyday makes us nervous going forward. For the market to remain resilient in the face of negative headline after negative headline that could have caused a bigger type of correction. Also as you read this we have gone 455 days without a meaningful 5% correction. That has not happened for about 50 years or so. So sure it makes us nervous, but there is not reason to panic. 

Does that mean the next quarter and earnings are going to drop the ball and fall off the table. Well, we do not think that is going to be the case. 

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daily stock market analysis - stock market technicals

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daily stock market analysis - stock market technicals

"daily stock market analysis - stock market technicals" 

in the news daily stock market analysis - stock market technicals? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader shows a very interesting chart today. As our  VIP members here  <= section here is on fire with the calls lately. 

The Dow posted first four-day losing streak since June

U.S. stocks closed narrowly mixed Tuesday as technology stocks recovered some of their losses, and its a chart we want to cover today, as its quite interesting!

The Dow Jones industrial average closed nearly 12 points lower at 22,284.32 in its first four-day losing streak since June 23. 

Information technology closed up 0.4 percent to lead three S&P 500 advancers, while telecommunications was the greatest laggard. The benchmark index closed less than 0.2 points higher at 2,496.84.

 Sentiment Trader thinks investors are being a little more cautious, some profit-taking going on, and also wanting to see if the president can get the Affordable Care Act repealed and [enact] any tax reform, as that is the biggest thing going on right now. 

Investors seem to be waiting for bigger news, or the calendar to hurry up and start earnings season. Until then there is no catalyst to take the market higher. 


With that being said, we want to cover the TECH SECTOR, as it has been taking a hit lately. This chart below shows or the XLK daily chart. 

Large-cap technology shares including the FANG basket crushed the market this year and drove hedge fund performance. But with the technology stalwarts faltering, what does that mean for the stock market?

"Some FANG stocks such as Amazon and Google/Alphabet have seen weakness before but usually it's been company-specific and not broad-based. Typically, Facebook and Netflix have held firm. 

Facebook shares declined 4.5 percent on Monday, its worst day since November. The drop followed the disclosure last week that the social media company will share information with Congress about suspected Russian-linked election ads.

Netflix shares fell 4.7 percent on Monday after a report that 21st Century Fox is adding more inventory to its FX+ streaming service. Investors may be concerned that content owners are pulling more content from the streaming giant.

It's not just FANG — Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet. Apple has lost approximately $50 billion in market value since the company announced its latest line of products on Sept. 12 as investors worry over the strength of the new iPhone models' "super cycle."

Hickey believes it is not just fundamental news driving the sector lower, but it could be a reaction to the Federal Reserve's announcement Wednesday to roll off its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

When the QEs were announced by the Fed, stocks jumped across the board before the actual buying occurred. We may be seeing the reverse happen following Wednesday's Fed meeting when they announced QT [quantitative tapering],

So what does a falling technology sector mean? Is it really that bearish?

Well that is a good question, so lets go an look at the chart...

Since March 2009, a weak month for the technology sector is generally bad news for the market, according to Kensho. 

XLK CHART - Technology sector . 

We have been looking at the daily chart recently you can see that since the start of the year we have clearly been in an upwards channel. With solidified resistance and then support, which right now as you read this sits at about 56.5 - 57.  While people are calling for a crash in technology and the technology sectors we are going to refrain from that and we will tell you why. 

1) The chart is in an upwards trajectory. The saying "The trend is your friend until the end is suffice here"

2) Selloffs in XLK or technology sectors across the board lately have been muted, and not serious. Dips here have a tenancy to be bought up. Sure that can fail, and eventually it will but for now lets call it, going with the overall direction of the sector itself with seems to be more north. 

3) The sell off we are currently seeing is not backed up by heavy volume or larger lot trades, which mean its not big deep pocket traders hands selling.

we would expect this to come off a bit more, but right now our targets are at about 57, so if we get down to this level and the sellers start to panic and the bulls drop the ball that would leave the door open for a bigger 5% correction. For now we are seeing too much panic out there over nothing more than a normal healthy retrace! We will keep our eye on this going into OCT and post more chart updates then.  This chart is quite interesting. 

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Our members here => VIP members here  have noticed a very interesting trend that, normally going into the weekend there is always some sort of news about North Korea or North Korea Tensions. This time the news was about the North Korea foreign minister warning or considering a hydrogen bomb test in the Pacific Ocean.

Technology shares, along with industrial and consumer discretionary stocks, share the highest correlation with the market.

Despite the recent declines, the FANG stocks are still doing well on a year-to-date basis with Facebook up 42 percent, Amazon up 25 percent, Netflix up 44 percent and Alphabet up 18 percent through Monday versus the S&P 500's 12 percent return.


However, the big tech gains may be a sign of earlier excessive risk-taking by investors, which could mean a large reversal when the tide turns. So we must keep that in mind as well. 

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junior gold mining companies - junior gold miners list

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junior gold mining companies - junior gold miners list

"junior gold mining companies - junior gold miners list" 

in the news junior gold mining companies - junior gold miners list? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader showed its prowess last week with huge profits...in our VIP members here  <= section here. It was a fun week, and we think there are more opportunities going forward. 

Dow posts another week of gains despite Apple's worst week in more than a year, but with all this action and news coming down the pipes about north korea here is one chart you might want to watch. 

Gold up on US-North Korea tensions ...

GDXJ, a chart most often overlooked by alot of traders, as it represents the smart and smaller sector in the gold miners. Have a look at the chart below. 

Since about 2013, this chart has been forming what we call in technical analysis an INVERTED HEAD and shoulders pattern, and if it does continue to rally and break out, the target would be somewhere in the vicinity of 120. So while the rights shoulder is still forming, we do like this chart. 

 This chart is quite interesting. 

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Our members here => VIP members here  have noticed a very interesting trend that, normally going into the weekend there is always some sort of news about North Korea or North Korea Tensions. This time the news was about the North Korea foreign minister warning or considering a hydrogen bomb test in the Pacific Ocean.

After the news, World stocks and the dollar retreated.

For gold it will continue to be back and forth, one day its about Fed tightening and balance sheet reduction and the next it's about the geopolitical uncertainty that creates this tug of war, but the chart above is a good one to watch we feel going forward. 

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cool testimonials - amazing testimonials 

"cool testimonials - amazing testimonials " 

in the news cool testimonials - amazing testimonials ? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Tradeder has seen lots of profit the last few weeks, so for our VIP members here we are no doubt getting some lovely feed back from our members. So I have posted proof below, because we believe our stock market newsletter is one of the best around.....

some very cool testimonials - some amazing testimonials that I love getting each week. So I posted this latest one this morning!!! See them down below, cause it makes my heart jump with joy every time I get them. 

The message says : "Hello sentiment trader,

I just wanted to say that I am very much enjoying your daily analysis.   I work for a small financial services company in the Forex market doing IT work and I am too busy to do such analysis on my own and in addition I lack the experience/skills in analyzing the stock market and finding the gems. 

I find a lot of value in your service so far and it's really fairly priced.

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s&p aerospace & defense select industry index constituents - s&p aerospace & defense select industry index

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s&p aerospace & defense select industry index

"s&p aerospace & defense select industry index" 

in the news s&p aerospace & defense select industry index? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Tradeder has seen lots of profit the last few weeks, so for our VIP members here we are looking in other areas or pockets of the market, and this week seen another interesting chart for our members.  

Aerospace and Defense ETFs which has been recently Rocket Higher

Aerospace and defense stock ETFs are rising on news of Northrop Grumman's $7.8 billion bid for Orbital ATK.

Aerospace and defense company stocks got a boost Monday morning on news of Northrop Grumman's (NOC) $7.8 billion acquisition of Orbital ATK (OA). Barron's Jack Hough, who wrote the cover story about the new space race and highlighted Orbital as a pick back in 2015, deserves a round of applause.

SENTIMENT Trader have gotten many questions about this, but we find  2 of the charts very interesting. 

Shares of Orbital are up more than 20% so far today to around $132.51. Northrop's stock is up a little more than 2% to around $272.63.

Meanwhile the $4.2 billion iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) and the $863 million SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) climbed 1.4% and 2.1%, respectively. The SPDR ETF is up slightly more because it tracks an equal-weighted index to capture industry exposure across large-, mid-, and small-cap stocks with roughly the same weighting in Northrop and Grumman. The market-cap weighted iShares ETF has a bigger exposure to Northrop than Orbital. Here is the chart of the ITA SECTOR ITSELF!!!....We went to NEW HIGHS today! WOW!!!!

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 One our our [ VIP clients here ] asked about is this gone too highs, and we think the answer to that is multifaceted, but it comes down to the geopolitical risks in the market right now. So if ROCKET MAN, keeps firing off rockets, we feel investors will shift and find shelter in safety so this might be a very good chart to watch in case these sorts of events continue to transpire. 

We did warn this might be a chart to watch back in JANUARY, but it sort of slipped through the cracks until this on going fued with RUSSIA and NORTH KOREA, which every time you switch on the news tends to be at the top of the news most nights. 

While the SPDR ETF charges a slightly lower fee, the iShares ETF has a longer tenure and a proven record for delivering slightly better returns. Over the last five years, the iShares ETF returned 22.39% compared to the SPDR's 21.89%, according to our data. 

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vix fear index chart - how to trade vix

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"vix fear index chart - how to trade vix" 

in the news vix fear index chart - how to trade vix? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader has been providing data to our VIP members here, which is quite interesting. Probably one of the most interesting things we have seen this year. 

(Investing  and saying LETS BET long on the VIX is a "quick way to lose money)

Betting against stock market volatility is one of the hottest trades in the market. But it has not been working out too well as of late.....

It's also one of the most controversial, with many pundits viewing it as increasingly vulnerable to a market blowup.

Sentiment trader — who has nailed the eight-year bull market at every turn — has decided its the best to be staying out of the fray completely. Having experienced considerable success simply trading on the benchmark S&P 500 index and evaluating stocks on an individual basis, hopping in to the VIX here and expecting an explosion higher, might be an exercise in 2017 deemed as pointless.

Our top analysts think our view on CBOE Volatility Index — or VIX — while also covering such hot-button market topics as equity valuations, exchange-traded funds, the effect of politics on the market, and what important factor he thinks investors are missing.

What we have note is a strange repeating pattern on the charts. everytime we go to 16 or 17 on the chart, the VIX just stalls and then DROPS like a rock!! Have a look at the chart we have drawn below. A strange phenomenon we call, "Twisted Fate"

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One our our [ VIP clients here ] asked about low volatility and why the trade is not working....we replied:

"Like so many things, that is a characteristic of a market. When people say to me that the market hasn't had a 1% run in a certain number of days, that tells me just that. It doesn't tell me anything about tomorrow or what's going to happen. No one really knows what is going to happen tomorrow or in the days ahead!!!


The VIX in 2017 really isn't the fear index — it's a measure of potential volatility in either direction. Yet for some reason, people have put on the ideology that if the VIX spikes, the market's going to go down. 

No,.... that is not always the case....when the VIX spikes, it means the market could go either up or down a lot. If you go back to the bottom in 2009, the VIX was telling you that there were going to be another two years of a bear market. It tells you about volatility, not direction. We like to think of this as just another vehicle. It's totally meaningless with regard to the future of the market or telling you what is about to happen. Its been like that for the last 10 years

 In an uninteresting market, people have found that this is something you can play. It seems like VIX ETFs and [exchange-traded notes] are a quick way to lose money. And the last few months people are losing lots of money scratching their heads, without realize what we are talking about here is a very detailed subject, and needs to be talked about. 

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NVIDA chart

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NVIDA chart 

"NVIDA chart " 

in the news NVIDA chart ? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader sees the NVIDA chart....

also we think with the rise of cryptocurrency mining market is strong for Nvidia and AMD we think cryptocurrency mining will be a viable growth market longer term for Nvidia and AMD. That is the secret play here. 

Nvidia's stock is up nearly 180 percent in the past 12 months through midday Monday compared with the S&P 500's 17 percent gain. That performance ranks No. 1 in the entire S&P 500, according to FactSet.


AMD shares are up 112 percent in the same time period, a return that ranks No. 2 in the benchmark index.

This is quite interesting The NVDIA is near the highs in a wedge formation!! but the chart is looking strong!. 

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We actually believe that the technology they are based on, called Blockchain, which supports secure accounting of distributed ledgers, has applications in financial services beyond cryptocurrencies. We expect demand for Blockchain GPUs (including for cryptocurrencies) to continue to grow and become an important driver for GPU growth, even if with some degree of volatility.

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bitcoin a speculative bubble - bitcoin a speculative bubble

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"bitcoin a speculative bubble" 

in the news bitcoin a speculative bubble? What this all about..... See below. 

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Sentiment Trader reassessed his thoughts on bitcoin after starkly warning his clients against the high-flying digital currency in July. 

We were fortunate enough to read the tea leaves and with charts call the financial crisis and the dot-com bubble implosion before it happened. 

There has been particularly spirited response and comments on digital currencies, I think I understand what a digital currency is, how bitcoin works, and some of the arguments for it. I can understand why people do not want to put their money to work in this asset because it is considered a very speculative bubble.

Bitcoin's price is up more 350 percent year to date, according to data from industry website CoinDesk. The digital currency fell 7 percent Friday on a report China may shut down local bitcoin exchanges. Personally I think this is more a positive thing than a negative, as the price would have crashed much further if people go nervous. 

An initial assessment of bitcoin is pretty dismal when you read what other analysts think, They do call it an "unfounded fad (or perhaps even a pyramid scheme)" i. While I can see that side of the argument, it could be legitimately used as a viable form of payment. So there are two sides to every coin, pun intended. :-)

"What bitcoin partisans have told me subsequently is that bitcoin should be thought of as a currency – a medium of exchange – and maybe not an investment asset, "Bitcoin fans argue that it qualifies as a currency … it's something that parties can agree to accept as legal tender and a store of value. That actually seems right.

On the flip side, you must remember that there are "no limits" on the creation of new cryptocurrencies and warned bitcoin may not become the eventual victor. So we can compard the current digital currency situation to the dot-com bubble period: What will happen next is anyones guess?

So even if digital currencies are here to stay, who knows which one will turn out to be the winner? Hundreds of e-commerce start-ups appreciated rapidly in the tech bubble based on the premise that 'the Internet will change the world.' It did, but most of the companies ended up worthless. Will this happen in the crypto world, well I am not sure, but they are here to stay and its gaining massive popularity!!!


You can see that just in the last 6 months, bitcoin itself has gone from $1000 all the way to $5000 per coin, and just off the highs today. 

 This is quite interesting & amazing on the charts, and we have not seen this for a while..... 

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At the time of posting this BITCOIN itself was about $700 down from its all time highs, and as news out of china hits the headlines we will see if that effects the price more!. 

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How the 2008 financial crisis changed our investing approach forever - How the 2008 financial crisis changed our investing approach forever

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How the 2008 financial crisis changed our investing approach forever ?

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How the 2008 financial crisis changed our investing approach forever

Every week we go into the market,  with the mission of helping people become better investors. Over the past 15 years or so that mission has transformed to match the surrounding environment.

since the first newsletter began as an outgrowth of our podcast, which is no longer in existence,   Back then, people craved specific investment ideas.

But everything changed when the 2008 financial crisis hit investors and tainted the way they viewed the market.

During that time, the downturn ravaged many big companies, especially in the financial sector, and caused a dramatic decline in economic activity.

"That era changed things, and it changed us. It changed the way we wrote and invested.

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These days is no longer about just giving stock ideas, because, in our opinion, that is not enough anymore.

In fact, we now has deliberately minimized highlighting stock ideas. we would rather teach investors to understand the process and be able to pick stocks for themselves.

"Ever since we changed the format, we have tried to leave behind the so-called 'new ideas' or 'hot ideas,' and instead tried to give you themes that allow you to invest in more fertile sectors versus others, themes that I hope I can make come alive so you can do the homework on them, that is where the power in this market lies. Not out there, or with software. But in your own mind and capabilities.

Ultimately, we are of the opinion that stocks can be one of the greatest investment vehicles out there. They represent the overall progress of a business and the prospects for that business going forward. Companies can also distribute their wealth to shareholders and be very rewarding.

So what we do want, is for investors to go along for the ride with stocks, but that means doing it in a responsible way. That is why he always suggests index funds as safe ways to invest.

sentiment trader has changed over time from one where we pick stocks for you to one where we educate you about stocks so you can understand why an index fund might be worth investing in, but what we are good at are spotting opportunities, hot trends before they happen and extremes in the market. Teaching our clients this has made huge profits for them over a longer term time frame.

We cover more and more technical analysis ==> HERE in our VIP members section.

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