september stock market analysis - september stock market analysis
"september stock market analysis - september stock market analysis"
in the news september stock market analysis - september stock market analysis? What this all about..... See below.
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Sentiment Trader show a very interesting chart today, just like in VIP members here <= saw. The healthiness of this rally is due to the fact that sustained areas of near these highs is because of the healthy rotation of sector to sector to sector. So there is a really very reliable chart that our members can look at, that is very very valuable here. This chart is one of the ones that everyone needs to see that will blow you mind! This shows we have never had a full year on the stock market, when the S&P 500 has had such a small draw down as we have had in 2017. Have a look at the chart below.....
All the way to the right side in orange. That is how small the max draw downs this year in 2017. A little bit more than 3%, and if it finishes the year this way, it will be the smallest ever seen since the year 1914. Wow! Some very good stats too look at.
What is even more interesting is that people will point at this chart and say we have to get a mean reversion and we have to see a large correction soon. Sure! I can see that side of the argument. And sooner or later the volatility has to show up, and sure this is very bizarre and abnormal. But just because we get to these extreme readings, that does not mean you have to take everything off and we are bound to see a HUGE crash or correction. So its important to keep that in mind. The world does not work that way!!!
So I would not take this as a signal that we are about to see devastation coming to the market in the next month or leading into Xmas. Sure we can see dips, and blips coming our way, but what this is saying its been an incredible year for stocks, and profits, and for each and everyone of us to be careful going forward.
We think September going forward is going to be a proxy for the entire year. When you think about all the challenges we have had this year, coming into September it has not caused us to dip or crash like some out there have been saying. There is a lot of resilience with the market here. Here is the chart of the MAX draw downs we have seen this year. Its very tiny.
This is quite interesting.
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Our Members here => VIP members here Have noticed One other factor that we should remember which is, when the year started, we had a very surprising election result. And there were many investors who were concerned about what was on the horizon, and with trump in office, they thought that would be a very bad thing, and they took money off the table.
Although there is a lot of bearishness out there, there is the Russell up 5%, there is the banks up 3% and energy up 8%. And on and on it goes.
One other factor that we should remember is, when the year started, it become up a very surprising election result. And there were many investors who were concerned about what was on the horizon, and with trump in office, they thought that would be a very bad thing, and taken money off the table. So through the course of this year, we have had good quarter after good quarter and decent earnings as well. People who have not been fully invested have had to put some money back in the market the last few months, and again this week, because they do not want to be left behind.
Does this chart we put up [see above] make us here at sentiment trader nervous? well, sure! It does! Everyday makes us nervous going forward. For the market to remain resilient in the face of negative headline after negative headline that could have caused a bigger type of correction. Also as you read this we have gone 455 days without a meaningful 5% correction. That has not happened for about 50 years or so. So sure it makes us nervous, but there is not reason to panic.
Does that mean the next quarter and earnings are going to drop the ball and fall off the table. Well, we do not think that is going to be the case.
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