oil price trends - What about oil price trends

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oil price trends ?

OIL PRICE TRENDS

U.S. crude oil price trends closed lower in choppy trade, but still recorded weekly gains, as supply disruptions in Iraq and Nigeria provided supported. The Crude oil price trends, has caused lots of chaos as you can see the charts have been up and down since the middle of January with no conviction either side. In fact you could say both the bulls and bears are confused as to what is about to happen next. 

Fundamentially, Pipeline outages in Iraq and Nigeria have removed more than 800,000 barrels of crude oil per day from the market for at least the next two weeks. The disruptions should offset recent increases to supply from Iran, analysts said.

Also on Friday, oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported the total number of rigs drilling for crude in the United States fell by 13 to a total of 400 in the previous week. At this time last year, there were 986 rigs in U.S. fields.

U.S. stock prices hit their highest in nearly two months after an upward revision to the country's economic growth for the fourth quarter. A raft of other U.S. economic data also boosted Wall Street, which has traded in tandem with oil for weeks.

"Equities have been in a rally mode and with the technical picture for oil becoming bullish in the short term, we have a risk-on trade in crude,"

Some analysts and traders were pricing oil higher in the near-term.

The chart above looks to be in serious trouble still. It seems every man and his dogs starts to call a bottom in OIL, as so as we start to see 1 or 2 green days. In our opinion calling a bottom in CRUDE OIL here is not only dangerous but hazardous to one's account. Right now there really is no reason to get all excited, because the chart drawn for you simply shows that crude has been in a vicious downtrend for months now, and over the past few weeks, a range has been formed, without any convictions. Its time to play things safely until either the upside or underside of this range is broken. 

Right now the CRUDE chart is in no where mans land. If the price does infact go and break the 38 level, then the bulls will come out in droves and we are likely to go higher. But until that happens, we remain very very cautious here. It's a smart play just for now. 


Our data and inventories falling last week for the first time since early November, suggesting that consumers could gobble up more of the world's oil products than expected. Its helping airlines and also consumers in the hip pocket. But it seems mainstream media is shying away from telling everybody. We are not sure why. 

We think gasoline demand is actually rising suggests that perhaps the lower prices of crude are actually prompting a greater usage of this product (gasoline). Investment bank Jefferies called current prices unsustainable and said production declines across most of the important non-OPEC producers is likely to set the stage for an oil price recovery in the second half of this year.

The chart no doubt, is getting increasing sick, and its probably not hit rock bottom yet. As they say its always DARKEST before the DAWN, and looking at the chart above, its pretty obvious to us that maybe the DARKEST [a low in crude] has not been set just yet. Time will tell. 

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short-covering rally

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short-covering rally ?

short-covering rally

Are we seeing the start of a major short-covering rally?

The market is looking like its hanging on a knife's edge here. Realistically.

The first thing you must realize is that we must differentiate the practice of short-selling from investing. It is true that short-selling can be part of an investment portfolio, but typically the practice of short-selling is a trading practice, and that is true even when it is imbedded in a larger portfolio. Therefore, short-selling is a form of trading, typically for short-term profits, and rarely with long-term time horizons in mind.

A person who often engage in short-selling practices are trading with short-term time frames in mind, which means that they are looking for short-term profits. Traders who engage positions like this are also often quick to get out of those positions if the short side of the market suddenly doesn't look as good as it did when they initiated it.

Using the market as an indicator, if a someone sells short the SPDR S&P 500 ETF  and that position starts to work for him, but then there is a reason why that position may not continue to work like it did, the typical short seller would be inclined to take profits, get out of the position, and wait for another more ideal entry. Generally speaking, because of the nature of the trade, there are few short-sellers who are actually in it for the long haul.

Realistically its all about the mentality. This short-side mentality can make markets prone to short-covering rallies from time to time. For example, if the market declined aggressively over a short period of time and part of that decline was influenced by the short side of the market, it is reasonable to assume that once the market finds legs, stabilizes, and begins to turn higher, those short positions that were initiated before and which influenced the market lower could rush to cover.

What do you get? Covering those short positions is exactly what causes a short-covering rally, but it usually takes more than just a little offset to encourage short sellers to exit their positions. Reasonably, because the practice of trading involves faster decisions, deciding to cover short positions can snowball, and if short-sellers begin to cover as a group, they could cause a bid in the market and a rally to ensue.

I guess that in more ways than one, that is exactly what our current market environment is set up for.

What about the economy then? The underlying economy is weak, corporate earnings are not likely to be good, global growth rates are horrible, there is a liquidity crisis in terms of new money as that is defined by The Investment Rate (TM), and we are in the third major down period in us history akin to the Great Depression and stagflation, so the problems are not going to go away, but the market has been beaten down recently, and it is ripe for a short-covering rally.

Right now, you have lots of people saying the market will crash in 2016, and then the rest saying this is just a DIP IN A BULL MARKET. Lets be honest, the market has gotten a little ahead of itself for years now, and when that happens you usually get extreme volatility and also when you get the larger dips, the short covering rallies and violent and fast on the upside. They end up tricking shorts, and tricking longs all together and its not uncommon for both sides to lose money! So just remember that. Also remember that the S&P is currently in a downtrend, and these short covering rallies over the past 6 months do not last long at all. Maybe a few weeks at best, and then its back down crapper hole!. 

I guess time will tell, to see if this is the start of a big rally, or just a short covering rally before more hard core selling is seen. Our thoughts are the latter, but we will know more in a month or so, obviously. 


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how to get rich off the stock market

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how to get rich off the stock market ?

how to get rich off the stock market

so, how to get rich off the stock market ? Is is really as hard as people out there say it is? There are many things to talk about, when up to 90% of all retail investors fail, when it comes to getting rich off the stock market. So obviously its not a game for everyone!


I keep reading blog posts around the internet that start off like this. “Why this Market Will Never Go Down Again”, and you can see that since the very first week of 2016, this market has been getting hammered. Normally when you start reading these sorts of posts, its a warning sign to get out. While we think the bull market might still have legs, you have to realise, Bull markets do not last a lifetime, and the stock market, even if you go back 200 years, never goes up in a straight line. You will always get DIPS, BLIPS, sideways and lots of volatility in between. There does come a point where the market has had HUGE OVERBOUGHT values, and a little wash out is needed to bring things back to fair value. Basically that is what you are seeing right now. And we do not believe this washing out is over yet!!!



1. You Need To Think independently

Traders, it is essential that you think for yourself. There are so many bulls on Wall Street it’s hard to count. According to Wall Street “groupthink,” when the market is down, you buy stocks because the market is on sale. When the market is up, you buy stocks because you might miss out. In other words, you are always in the stock market, and that may be risky. IF you cannot think for yourself, you are basically and inevitably doomed as a trader. If you can consistently rely on  your thoughts, and your research and it makes you money consistently, we call that a "Reliant Trader" who instead of relies on others, can sit down in the chair do some reading, look at some charts and by the end of the week make some good profits.


2. You actually can Play both sides of the market

To be honest, in 2014 some turned bearish on the market, and it cost them a shitload of money. Instead of following the market trend, many people moved to cash and missed out on many good trading opportunities. They were everywhere. As one hedge fund trader in the movie,”The Big Short,” said, “I may have been early, but I’m not wrong.” One of his investors replied, “It’s the same thing.”

Since then, lots of investors have learned valuable lessons: Although it’s appropriate to have a bullish or bearish view of the market, you must be open-minded enough to play both sides. Sometimes your view of the market is wrong, or perhaps you are early. If you don’t admit or recognize your mistake, you will lose money. Unfortunately, most people won’t admit they are wrong, a costly error.

Think of the market is like a series of hills, like uphills, and downhills, rather than as only a bull or bear market. If you can free yourself from being permanently bearish or bullish, you can take advantage of short-term trends. This year, volatility has gone through the roof, so the current environment can be highly profitable for short-term traders, but, you probably have to be tied to your screen a bit more than the average trader, as the market in a matter of an hour, can snap completely the other way fast.

If you’re a longer-term investor, it’s more challenging. It appears as if the big bad bear is stalking the stock market and is ready to attack. And yet, if you are willing to play both sides, you can make money. To succeed, you need to have good timing skills.

The biggest mistake you can make right now is to put your head in the sand and refuse to believe that a bear market is looming. Just as the gloomy folks at popular blogs and forums missed out on years of stock market gains, if you don’t take action before a bear market arrives, you could lose much of your profits.

3. Here is What to do ?

Do your own research. Do not blindly follow the advice of a financial entertainer on TV, money managers who routinely predict 20% returns, or Chicken Littles who scare you into holding cash forever. Otherwise, you might as well take investment advice from George Constanza. (The “Seinfeld” character may have a “can’t lose” stock tip or two.)

During the last confirmed bear market in 2007, TV pundits and some financial advisors told investors that “conservative” stocks including Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Bear Stearns “were great buying opportunities.” Then these so-called conservative stocks got obliterated. And here we are, nine years later, and investors are told to sit tight during an ominous bear market because “stocks always come back.” Many are going to get fooled again.

4. Follow the market, not the opinion of others. 

The number 1 solution is to ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS follow the market trend. Only the market is right and it always has the final word. When the market trend is up, you are long. When the trend is down, you are short (or in cash). Right now, the market seems to be pivoting from a bull to a bear market, which is why there is so much volatility and confusion. But there is no reason to panic, and pull all your money out of the market. Basically sometimes its much easier to make money in a BEAR market, because things fall faster, and not many people realise that. If you are unaware, brokers love a falling market better than a bull market, as profits come to them, and they do not have to spend more long at the screen. In fact if you ask any professional trader, they will secretly tell you that they like it when the market falls, because things hammer down fast, and it happens 3 times as fast. But realistically the stock market is designed to go up, over time, not DOWN. If you have a look over the last 200 years what the stock market has done, its actually gone UP over TIME, not DOWN like many people try to tell you.

If possible, keep an open mind, remain unbiased and unemotional about market direction, and monitor your portfolio (even if someone else is managing it). If you’re nervous, come out of your basement once in a while and smell the flowers. Even during vicious bear markets, the world doesn’t come to an end. In fact, there’s always an opportunity somewhere to make money. It does not matter if the stock market is going up or down. Realise that you can make money when the market goes up, but if the market goes down really hard, just realise you can start shorting assets and because of the velocity of the dropping, it can actually be easier to make money on a stock when its losing value because it usually FALLS much faster than it goes up. Not many people realize you can do this, even in 2008 people went broke, because they held onto positions, when in fact, they could have bet against the market [put on short positions] and QUADRUPLED their money. 


 I cover more and more technical analysis ==> HERE in our VIP members section.

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why did the stock market drop today

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why did the stock market drop today ?

why did the stock market drop today

so, why did the stock market drop today ? Infact, why is the stock market doing horrible the last few weeks. Since the beginning of 2016 the stock market is dropping like a rock, and it has lots of investors nervous out there. 

Friday's jobs report had the whole market skidding down. It was a horrible day as analysts say they would not be surprised to see stocks take aim at January's lows in the week ahead as investors await two days of testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. If that happens, more investors will be losing some of their hard earned money.

The two days of testimony of Yellen on the economy before congressional committees Wednesday and Thursday is the highlight of what promises to be another volatile week in markets. It set to make market turn on a dime and the volatility at records heights. One catalyst that has been temporarily removed is China, where markets are closed while Lunar New Year begins, so little data is expected.

Yellen will be giving her speech at the end of the this week, but the markets have also priced out the possibility of a rate hike for this year, that is because the weakening economy and faltering financial conditions could give way to a recession. Its probably a little to early to go preaching in a the streets about a recession, but the weekly chart below of the S&P is a little depressing. It could basically mean more lows are on the cards!!!. Look at the chart of the S&P, the last few weeks looks nothing more than a BEARISH FLAG set up on the daily chart. Right now we busted down from the flag pattern itself.

why did the stock market drop today

Also in the week ahead. The JOLTs report on job openings and turnover Tuesday will be important, after the January employment report showed a big decline in hiring — just 151,000 payrolls — but a surprise pickup in wages and a decline in unemployment to 4.9 percent, due to more workers finding jobs.

The jobs report last friday could convince investors that this soft patch could turn into a bigger slowdown or recession. There is also retail sales data on Friday, a key read on the consumer. So we will have to wait and see, but so far we do not feel the selling on the market has stopped.

"There's a lot of pressure on the Fed chair. It's definitely a tricky situation for the Fed. The economy doesn't look too bad but it certainly has weakened. They finally got liftoff, and now the market is clamoring for at least a reversal — to stay on hold, if not some outright action," said Gina Martin Adams, Wells Fargo Securities institutional equities strategist.


Stocks sold off violently Friday, and the S&P 500 was off 3.1 percent for the week to 1,880, after three weeks of gains. LinkedIn's earnings disappointment sent its shares down 43 percent, and momentum names followed. Facebook was down nearly 6 percent Friday, and the IBB, iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF lost 3.2 percent.

This market certainly has shifted so very defensively that it seems to me the market is trying to price in a very significant slowdown in growth. As much as the economic data has weakened it still shows expansion," said Adams.

It seems that the smarter investors have taken a more defensive tack now but investors shouldn't just dump stocks. Most investors are in a quandary on what to do. "I think the markets are thinking recession. It's a little early to get in, but it's late to get out. Why sell stocks now that have taken most of the beating they're going to take?" I think we 5 weeks of the new year, its too early to get excited about a new bear market.

One of the most important things to watch is the US Dollar. The dollar in the past week lost 2.6 percent, its worst performance since October 2011. But its losses helped stanch some of the selling in oil. Still, West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down more than 8 percent for the week, ending right above $30 per barrel.


"The technical patterns say we can't dismiss the possibility of going lower. It's a pretty weak little recovery rally, as well. It just seems people are willing to take a wait-and-see attitude rather than 'buy on dips' mentality. About 40 percent of the gains from the low has been from energy's bounce back," she said. "We haven't seen anything in earnings that generates a lot of optimism. The numbers are OK but exhibit a slowdown from where we were a few months ago. There's not a lot of reason to stick your neck out and take a risk."

Lets just say if the market breaks those January lows, the S&P 500 might want to go to test an important area right below 1,800. That level is key. Below there, and this bull market is in serious trouble, as in "HOLY MOLEY grab on to the life raft, lets get out of here!!!"

We would not be surprised that low from late January SPX 1,812 could get touched soon, and the  market, and has now lost it MOJO for now.

Even though the market is oversold there is no reason to call a bottom here. That would be stupid. ll 5 percent off the low of the year when there's even more technical damage than we had the last time stocks were at that level? Its sort of damned if you do, damned if you don't sort of levels here. So its better to wait we think. There is a saying for the last few hundred years with well known traders...that is "SO GOES JANUARY, SO GOES THE ENTIRE YEAR" Basically it means, if you have a positive january month on the stock market, the whole entire year should be bullish. But if you have a dismal and horrible january the whole year on the market will be BAD. If this was the case, we just had one of the worst januarys on records, and it would mean the whole year is going to be a nightmare for investors. Well, we shall see, but its a bit too early to just write off MR market here, so early in the year. 

If we get more selling in the weeks ahead, we could see the SPX 1,770 magnetize itself.  

We still have issues coming out of china, and the commodities market is a awful mess. 



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warren buffet investments - warren buffet advice 2016

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warren buffet investments - warren buffet advice  2016

warren buffett investments - warren buffet advice

The stock market melt-down has many people shatting in their bedpan recently. But dear old warren buffett has actually be laughing all the way down. YES! That's right. Not only has he been laughing at people panicking in this market drop, he has been the first guy to stick his chest out and start buying.

After three more days of buying, Warren Buffett's Phillips 66 shopping spree is nearing a billion dollars for the year.

In a new filing, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reveals that on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of this week the company purchased another 1.7 million shares of the energy giant for almost $132 million.

Over 15 days of buying since Jan. 4, Berkshire has spent $964 million to add 12.5 million shares to its Phillips 66 stake.

The new purchases were made between $77.40 and $78.53. Average price paid overall for the January and February buys is $77.13.

At midday Thursday, PSX was up 1.8 percent to $80.56, giving Berkshire a very short-term profit on paper from the new shares of almost $43 million


Berkshire's 74 million-share stake is now worth $5.9 billion and represents around 14 percent of the company's outstanding shares. (You can follow the market value of this stake, and Berkshire's other publicly disclosed holdings, with the Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio Tracker.)

warren buffet advice, or any warren investment tips should not probably be taken lightly. I mean love or hate the guy, he has has some amazing success over his life as an investor right!? So take it with a grain of salt, no matter what, its always a good idea to follow what this man is doing once a year, especially on a year like this year when the market is slumping down a bit.  

The man always seems to be taking the wrong action from time to time, meaning when most people are panicking, and selling, he comes along and buys, and then months later it seems the novice investors sold too early, and he is sitting on the chair laughing and smiling all the way to the bank, screaming I TOLD YOU SO!, LOL. 



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