stock market future predictions

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stock market future predictions

stock market future predictions that might shock you !

source :  marketwatch

Well, OK, I can tell you that our latest stock market future predictions will probably not shock you, but there is alot of confusion out there right now. What with OIL crashing, and also stocks closed higher Tuesday, recovering slightly from a sharply lower start to the year and shaking off pressure from an intraday dip in oil below $30 a barrel.

Stabilization in the Chinese yuan overnight and oil's initial attempt at gains helped stocks rise more than 1 percent in the open.

The major U.S. averages recovered some of their opening gains after an intraday turn lower as oil declined, but ended off session highs.

"For worldwide market sentiment, if China can stabilize it definitely can help markets stabilize worldwide. but that has to be sustained and oil is still driving the market," said Peter Coleman, head trader at Convergex.

The Nasdaq composite outperformed to close up 1.03 percent, off session highs of a more than 1.5 percent rise but after posting eight-straight days of losses. The Nasdaq composite closed lower Monday to post its first eight-day losing streak since January 2008.

"The good news is, after the close in energy prices, we know it's not going to go any lower," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities.

Oil is hot on the lips of everyone, and prices remained near their lowest in more than a decade as oversupply concerns persisted. In intraday trade, Brent futures hit a low of $30.34 a barrel and U.S. crude oil futures briefly fell more than 4 percent to below $30 a barrel.

WTI has settled lower every single day of the year so far, for a seven-day losing streak, its longest consecutive decline since a nine-day losing streak in July 2014.

"Whatever the number is, the logic behind it is the market has to reach a shocking level for oil producers of all (types) to respond," said John Kilduff, founding partner at Again Capital. His target is $18 and he expects oil to trade in a range between $14 and $48 this year.

Copper hit a fresh low going back to April 2009. The decline pressured Freeport-McMoRan, which closed down 4.6 percent, well above session lows. Freeport shares fell 20 percent Monday amid declines in copper and news Arch Coal filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, as part of a restructuring agreement reached with lenders who hold more than $4.5 billion of the coal mining company's debt.

"The Arch Coal bankruptcy reminds me that 0 is the ultimate number for these bankruptcies," Kilduff said.

In the close, the Nasdaq composite and Dow Jones industrial average remained 10 percent or more below their 52-week intraday highs, in correction territory. The S&P 500 closed within 10 percent of its 52-week high.

"Today is a relief rally on China's ability to stabilize their own markets and I believe China-inspired volatility will continue in 2016 because what they need to do is move to a freer market and they're having trouble letting go," said Doug Cote, chief market strategist at Voya Investment Management.
Overnight, the Chinese central bank set the yuan mid-point fix at 6.5628 against the dollar, similar to Monday's fix of 6.5626.

"You can't both do reform and maintain a 6.5 percent growth rate at the same time. ... The feedback loop is slowing global growth. That's one of the implications of low oil," Cote said.
In November, China's President Xi Jinping said the country's economic growth rate will not be less than 6.5 percent in the five years to 2020, Reuters reported, citing the state-run Xinhua news agency.

Traders were watching to see whether Tuesday's early rally was sustainable. Weakening in China's currency and speculation of further devaluation helped pressure U.S. stocks to end the first trading week of the year down nearly six percent or more, their worst week since 2011.

"At the highest level, investors are starting to adjust to the uncertainty of a new regime of interest rates in the United States," said Omar Aguilar, chief investment officer, equities, at Charles Schwab Investment Management. "Then we have significant headwinds coming out of emerging markets."

I think, the SPX would have to rally about 100 points by the end of the week Friday in order to suggest a shakeout (read: false breakdown) has occurred, As it stands, breakdowns are abundant from a bottom-up perspective, so we think near-term strength is best viewed as an opportunity to take down exposure.

stock market future predictions

We can go and take a look at some charts! You can see if we zoom back and take a look at the more longer term or the SPX weekly chart you can see that we are currently at 1922, and since the end of 2015 we could make the assumption that we are putting in a series of HIGHER LOWS! That is of course we do not just drop like a rock here, and fall off a cliff. If that was to happen, that would be a good time to hit the panic buttons and put yourself in BUG OUT mode!! But the weekly chart is significant here, so we must watch and wait to see what Mr Market has in store for us.

The other interesting thing is the DAILY chart of the S&P. Have a look at that chart. You can see that the daily chart is clear showing 2 GREEN DAYS! That has not happened for a long time, so that could be significant. 

 The last several times we had 2 GREEN DAYS in a row it lead to rallies. We are not saying that is set in stone, but it could be significant here, and it could be a warning that some sort of rally is about to occur. Its hard to swallow for some people that just a few months ago on the S&P we were at 2100. Today, we closed at 1922. A lot of traders have been cut up and lost money on the way down too. I hear people screaming about some sort of top, and this is the 1929 crash all over again! That is crazy!, and you need to put that to bed if that is your train of thoughts right here. I guess its smart to remain vigilant here, and always follow your charts. I was talking to a friend over the phone on the weekend who has lost $50,000 on the market in the last two weeks. He told me he thought the market would keep going down, but right when he added to his shorts, the market bounced violently and he kept getting stopped out. So be careful, and keep your position sizes really small. That will save you from getting your nuts chopped off and for blowing up your account. Anyone that tells you this market will go down like 1929 has rocks in their head, as this VOLATILITY is likely to be the same as last year in 2015. Really big rallies, and really big sell offs at the same time. If you are not ready for that this year, then this game is not for you. 


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investing in biotech - The best way to be investing in biotech

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investing in biotech

investing in biotech - made easy!

source :  marketwatch


Biotech stocks finished out the month on a high note after a roller-coaster ride this year. Yet according to one top analyst, investors must trade the space carefully in 2016.

"It's really a stock picker year," RBC Capital Markets Michael Yee told the "Fast Money" traders last week.

Yee explained in his most recent note that plenty has changed in the biotech industry in 2015. And investing in biotech could be a good action to take if the smart money moves in there in 2016. The sector has evolved so rapidly that the public knows more about diseases, targets and designing better-targeted drugs than ever before.

However, while he remains "fundamentally positive" on secular innovation, he said overall outlook and expectations for biotech stocks have shifted. According to Yee, there are four major headwinds in the space that temper his view on stock performance in 2016.

First, "there's a big money-flow change going on," he said. "After three years of gains of well over 30 percent a year in biotech, most fund managers have been overweight this sector for many years and I think there's a situation here where people are taking that overweight position and moving to a lot more equal weight position."

As investor interest is a crucial part of research and development for many biotech names, the possibility of a slowdown in growth increases in this type of environment.

Secondly, "I think as we're going into an election year I think people are going to be a little more cautious going into the political rhetoric that is going to pick up," Yee said. "I see biopharma stocks having a little bit of a tougher time in a political election year."

Skyrocketing drug prices have been the topic of many political debates and conversations involving Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton, Yee notes. Earlier this year, Clinton injected herself into the drug pricing controversy surrounding the medication Daraprim.

Whether the industry experiences pressure to lower prices or not, the general investor is going to shy away from investing in controversial stocks.

Third, Lee said that the technicals are sounding the alarm. "We've broken down on the Nasdaq biotechnology index (NBI) on the 200-, the 100- and the 50-day moving averages — I think it's going to take some time for us to grind back up," Yee said.

Yet it remains to be seen if the August lows can continue to serve as support for 2016.
Lastly, Yee sees less chance of an earnings upside to the consensus models for each of the large-cap stocks versus previous years. In 2015, Amgen, Gilead, Biogen and Celgene all managed to trounce their own guidance by 10 to 50 percent. With less surprise catalysts in 2016, maintaining that momentum will be much harder.

Despite the potential for all these headwinds, Lee said there are three names that could break away from the pack in 2016: Biogen, Celgene and Vertex.

"Biogen has a number of catalysts, that stock has been beaten down all year and I think that stock starts to recover," said Yee. "Biogen has the most upside and downside potential with four big catalysts coming in the next 12-18 months."

Vertex and Celgene also have several catalysts on the horizon in 2016 for their drugs to treat cystic fibrosis and multiple myeloma, respectively. He says Celgene could start to move back up toward its highs.

"You need specific catalysts to move higher this year," said Yee.

investing in biotech

Biotech Daily Chart.

investing in biotech

Contrarians are currently advising against investing in biotech . However you must remember right now, we are experiencing some of the most fast, and rapid technological advancements in medicine and bio-technologies, the world has ever seen. So today, perhaps you can take this post not as a 'you must do this' type post, but as a nudge, telling you, 'hey you in 2016, you really must take a look at this' because we have been looking around at some of the other sectors, and none warm the cockles of our heart just like the biotech one does.

You can see the chart above, is also forming what looks to be an ASCENDING TRIANGLE pattern, and in technical analysis terms, patterns like this, always tend to form before prices increase in price. So let that be a heads up for you.

We all agree that 2015 was not a good year for BIOTECH, but when you have a look back, there are lots of messy charts, and BIOTECH did seem to hold up ok, with lots of relative strength. So if 2016 was to be one of those years where everything does in fact recover, you will want to look for the sectors that show clear cut relative strength and BIOTECH is one of those. 

There are several other charts we will share with our VIP members, but they have been concentrating on some of the BIOTECH sectors lately, and investors who are selective and astute in 2016, will make very HANDSOME profits!!! and one action to take, could be investing in biotech going forward.


 I cover more and more technical analysis ==> HERE in our VIP members section.

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s&p 500 predictions - 2016 s&p 500 predictions

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s&p 500 predictions - 2016 s&p 500 predictions

What We See?

Well its that time of year again!

source :  marketwatch

Yes! With santa out of the way, Wall Street stocks still looking a bit flat as the market closes out 2015. Crude oil CLG6, -3.36% is back to its downbeat ways, relinquishing most of the sizable gains the commodity scored last week. With crude down so much, the market is really feeling the pinch!

Stocks are under pressure. The S&P 500 index SPX, -0.37% which had been clinging to a meager annual gain as recently as Christmas Eve is looking at a 0.6% decline year to date, joining the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.25% down 2.1% year to date, in negative territory.

There are many equity strategists out there who are holding on to optimism for 2016, even as the stocks look set to limp out of the 2015.

Our view is oil is going to stabilize at a low level, and we will see some of the consumer dividend get spent next year, but there are some hurdles to get through as we go into 2016. We just cannot jump on the bandwith of all the BEARS out there. For us, doing that does not make sense.


Generally speaking, U.S. strategists aren’t particularly sanguine about the prospects for 2016, with many polled by MarketWatch offering 2016 forecasts that are lower than their 2015 predictions, as we head into the new year.

It is important to point out that there were a few of our predictions in 2015 that haven’t exactly panned out the way we anticipated. But we did accurately predict a bumpy ride in 2015, and even though no one can really see the future with the market, as anything can happen, we think that its a fair call that more volatility is going to occur next year.

In 2015, a stronger dollar, which gained more than 8% this year, as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, +0.04% has limited profits for big U.S. companies. Plunging oil has raised fears about the earnings power of energy companies and stoked concern about problems in high-yield bonds HYG, -0.56% spilling over into the broader market.

With a rising US dollar,  corporate earnings will be key to the market’s success in 2016. But it is hard to see the dollar’s strength abating in the face of expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to normalize interest rates next year, and calling the bottom of oil’s stunning price collapse has been a losing effort so far

s&p 500 predictions - 2016 s&p 500 predictions

Bulls and bears are locked in a year-end tug-of-war, as the chart below shows. We can tell you that the end of year has a bias to the upside, and so far that has been playing true, however as you can see on the daily S&P chart below, we have been in nothing more than a sideways market. Its pretty much pissing off the bulls and the bears out there.

s&p 500 predictions

Contrarians currently are neutral about the stock market’s near-term direction, since the current Wall Street consensus is neither excessively bullish nor excessively bearish.

This will come as good news if you were worried that there might still be too much bullishness out there that needs to be worked off. But this news will be discouraging if you were hoping that the market’s recent declines were enough to completely rebuild the Wall of Worry that rallies like to climb.

Consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of short-term stock market timers monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI). This average currently stands at 31.4%, less than half the 65.7% reading registered in the first week of December. But some of the big hedge funds that follow this has gone broke this year. This is not a market where you buy and hold anymore, that does not work.


The speed and extent of this drop is encouraging, since it suggests that there is not the kind of stubbornly held bullishness that often accompanies major market tops. A textbook illustration of that kind of bullishness came at the top of the Internet bubble in March 2000, when — in the wake of the first 10% correction off the market’s all-time highs — the average market timer became even more bullish.


Barron's Senior Editor Jack Hough previews the latest issue of Barron's, which includes the value of investing in money managers, the advertising sector outlook for 2016, and the attractiveness of some junk bonds. Photo: Getty

So it’s definitely good news that we’re not following that script from 15 years ago.

Why, then, aren’t contrarians more bullish now? The answer is implicit in the chart accompanying this column: Even though the HSNSI has fallen dramatically over the last two weeks, it still hasn’t hit the even-lower levels that have accompanied the most significant bottoms of the last couple of years.

You may find it frustrating that contrarian analysis doesn’t produce a clear and unambiguous forecast of either a higher or lower market. But it’s worth remembering that only rarely do good stock market indicators provide such “shout from the rooftops” signals. Most of the time they are in-between those extremes.

Now appears to be just such a time

 We are seeing some significant signs that 2016 can be a bullish year! I guess that is good news, however what you do not want to see is the BOTTOM fall out of the market in the next few weeks. If that was to happen, it would not represent a good situation at all. 

Next year we see rapid developments in technology too. That is good news and likely to hold up the market as well. We are now living in a world, where things are moving so fast, the next and broadcasters cannot keep up. Iphones, apps, drones, hoverboards are all hot topics and on everyone Christmas list. The world in which we live is speeding up, the market can smell it, and it loves the though that this TECHNOLOGY boom is just what the doctor prescribed. We are living on the edge of a boom not seen before. It reminds us to a similar situation back in the DOT com days, when things grew too fast for itself, and ended up on a DOT COM CRASH, but realistically you have to see massive euphoria first, and we can defiantly say we are no where there yet. We will get there, but its probably going to take years! For now we just bask in the sun and hope the market does not see a down-leg here at the end of 2015, if that was to happen, it would be nothing more than a warning shot across the bow.  But because the market held so well, in 2015 this could be one of those consolidation years, before we see another leg higher in the TECH BOOM, and the MARKET itself. Time will tell. :-)


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