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Tuesday, 12 January 2016

stock market future predictions



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stock market future predictions

stock market future predictions that might shock you !

source :  marketwatch

Well, OK, I can tell you that our latest stock market future predictions will probably not shock you, but there is alot of confusion out there right now. What with OIL crashing, and also stocks closed higher Tuesday, recovering slightly from a sharply lower start to the year and shaking off pressure from an intraday dip in oil below $30 a barrel.

Stabilization in the Chinese yuan overnight and oil's initial attempt at gains helped stocks rise more than 1 percent in the open.

The major U.S. averages recovered some of their opening gains after an intraday turn lower as oil declined, but ended off session highs.

"For worldwide market sentiment, if China can stabilize it definitely can help markets stabilize worldwide. but that has to be sustained and oil is still driving the market," said Peter Coleman, head trader at Convergex.

The Nasdaq composite outperformed to close up 1.03 percent, off session highs of a more than 1.5 percent rise but after posting eight-straight days of losses. The Nasdaq composite closed lower Monday to post its first eight-day losing streak since January 2008.

"The good news is, after the close in energy prices, we know it's not going to go any lower," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities.

Oil is hot on the lips of everyone, and prices remained near their lowest in more than a decade as oversupply concerns persisted. In intraday trade, Brent futures hit a low of $30.34 a barrel and U.S. crude oil futures briefly fell more than 4 percent to below $30 a barrel.

WTI has settled lower every single day of the year so far, for a seven-day losing streak, its longest consecutive decline since a nine-day losing streak in July 2014.

"Whatever the number is, the logic behind it is the market has to reach a shocking level for oil producers of all (types) to respond," said John Kilduff, founding partner at Again Capital. His target is $18 and he expects oil to trade in a range between $14 and $48 this year.

Copper hit a fresh low going back to April 2009. The decline pressured Freeport-McMoRan, which closed down 4.6 percent, well above session lows. Freeport shares fell 20 percent Monday amid declines in copper and news Arch Coal filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, as part of a restructuring agreement reached with lenders who hold more than $4.5 billion of the coal mining company's debt.

"The Arch Coal bankruptcy reminds me that 0 is the ultimate number for these bankruptcies," Kilduff said.

In the close, the Nasdaq composite and Dow Jones industrial average remained 10 percent or more below their 52-week intraday highs, in correction territory. The S&P 500 closed within 10 percent of its 52-week high.

"Today is a relief rally on China's ability to stabilize their own markets and I believe China-inspired volatility will continue in 2016 because what they need to do is move to a freer market and they're having trouble letting go," said Doug Cote, chief market strategist at Voya Investment Management.
Overnight, the Chinese central bank set the yuan mid-point fix at 6.5628 against the dollar, similar to Monday's fix of 6.5626.

"You can't both do reform and maintain a 6.5 percent growth rate at the same time. ... The feedback loop is slowing global growth. That's one of the implications of low oil," Cote said.
In November, China's President Xi Jinping said the country's economic growth rate will not be less than 6.5 percent in the five years to 2020, Reuters reported, citing the state-run Xinhua news agency.

Traders were watching to see whether Tuesday's early rally was sustainable. Weakening in China's currency and speculation of further devaluation helped pressure U.S. stocks to end the first trading week of the year down nearly six percent or more, their worst week since 2011.

"At the highest level, investors are starting to adjust to the uncertainty of a new regime of interest rates in the United States," said Omar Aguilar, chief investment officer, equities, at Charles Schwab Investment Management. "Then we have significant headwinds coming out of emerging markets."

I think, the SPX would have to rally about 100 points by the end of the week Friday in order to suggest a shakeout (read: false breakdown) has occurred, As it stands, breakdowns are abundant from a bottom-up perspective, so we think near-term strength is best viewed as an opportunity to take down exposure.

stock market future predictions

We can go and take a look at some charts! You can see if we zoom back and take a look at the more longer term or the SPX weekly chart you can see that we are currently at 1922, and since the end of 2015 we could make the assumption that we are putting in a series of HIGHER LOWS! That is of course we do not just drop like a rock here, and fall off a cliff. If that was to happen, that would be a good time to hit the panic buttons and put yourself in BUG OUT mode!! But the weekly chart is significant here, so we must watch and wait to see what Mr Market has in store for us.

The other interesting thing is the DAILY chart of the S&P. Have a look at that chart. You can see that the daily chart is clear showing 2 GREEN DAYS! That has not happened for a long time, so that could be significant. 

 The last several times we had 2 GREEN DAYS in a row it lead to rallies. We are not saying that is set in stone, but it could be significant here, and it could be a warning that some sort of rally is about to occur. Its hard to swallow for some people that just a few months ago on the S&P we were at 2100. Today, we closed at 1922. A lot of traders have been cut up and lost money on the way down too. I hear people screaming about some sort of top, and this is the 1929 crash all over again! That is crazy!, and you need to put that to bed if that is your train of thoughts right here. I guess its smart to remain vigilant here, and always follow your charts. I was talking to a friend over the phone on the weekend who has lost $50,000 on the market in the last two weeks. He told me he thought the market would keep going down, but right when he added to his shorts, the market bounced violently and he kept getting stopped out. So be careful, and keep your position sizes really small. That will save you from getting your nuts chopped off and for blowing up your account. Anyone that tells you this market will go down like 1929 has rocks in their head, as this VOLATILITY is likely to be the same as last year in 2015. Really big rallies, and really big sell offs at the same time. If you are not ready for that this year, then this game is not for you. 

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