Don’t believe the S&P rally hype
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Don’t believe the S&P rally hype
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Don’t believe the S&P rally hype
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| Don’t believe the S&P rally hype |
Don’t believe the S&P rally hype
Don’t believe the S&P rally hype - or should you really buy into it. We can say that its a case of Don’t believe the S&P rally hype , however. We need to take a closer look at the chart.
Even as stocks hit record highs, this rally is not all it's cracked up to be. We have lower volume and we have gone up to fast to quick. I think to think this is going to go to the moon from here, might be a bit of a crap shoot.
By Friday's market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed a five-day streak of record highs, while the S&P 500 Index posted a four-day record of closing highs.
Many investors flocked to stocks during the rally, while big bank earnings and strong retail sales data drove stocks higher. However, we must say that infact the equity performance has actually been rather disappointing lately.
The issue here might be that we know on an absolute basis, one has nothing to show for having been in the market now since May of a year ago.
This is a constant mistake, and you must realise that Investors can get too bullish at highs, and extreme bearish at lows. You can go back and take a look in previous times if you do not believe us.
Our charts, actually show that if we look year-over-year change for key assets. Nothing earth changing has happend for us to go 'meaningfully higher'.....
so maybe it is a case of ' Don’t believe the S&P rally hype ' but just for now. Such indicators like Treasury bonds, gold and real estate—nearly all up in the double-digits— you must realise that stocks are the worst-performing major asset class since last May, up less than one percent. So that is why we are a little cautious here.
In looking at the S&P total return index, its trajectory falls below the S&P 30-year bond futures total return index.
The total return of just being in the bond market versus the stock market, no result, and yet again, all the volatility, if you adjust for the risk, it's not parity at all.
Plus the fact we have VIX at all time lows, and mentioned that to our VIP members just 24 hours ago.
And when adjusted for inflation, we can attest to the fact that the S&P has still not taken out its March 2000 high, a record set during the tech bubble. Considering this was about 15 years ago this level is quite significant.
I would take a rocketship rally higher, and a meaningfully RALLY to start to compensate for the risk that's been associated with owning equities not only for the last 18 months, but for quite some time now.
Here is a chart of the S&P 500 with just 2 red days, and lower volume our analyts are starting to umm and ahhh here. Because due to that violent upwards move, and without it being back, and with gaps in the chart as well on the downside, something is fishy here it seems. [See the Chart below]
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You may be in the camp that thinks, hold on, we are going up and that is the trajectory and we should rocket higher from here, to the moon. But that would not be a smart way to think, considering how volatile the market has been lately. The ups and downs has been enough for even the most steadies of hands type trader to get sea sick.....
Don’t believe the S&P rally hype - or should you really buy into it. We can say that its a case of Don’t believe the S&P rally hype , however. We need to take a closer look at the chart.
Even as stocks hit record highs, this rally is not all it's cracked up to be. We have lower volume and we have gone up to fast to quick. I think to think this is going to go to the moon from here, might be a bit of a crap shoot.
By Friday's market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed a five-day streak of record highs, while the S&P 500 Index posted a four-day record of closing highs.
Many investors flocked to stocks during the rally, while big bank earnings and strong retail sales data drove stocks higher. However, we must say that infact the equity performance has actually been rather disappointing lately.
The issue here might be that we know on an absolute basis, one has nothing to show for having been in the market now since May of a year ago.
This is a constant mistake, and you must realise that Investors can get too bullish at highs, and extreme bearish at lows. You can go back and take a look in previous times if you do not believe us.
Our charts, actually show that if we look year-over-year change for key assets. Nothing earth changing has happend for us to go 'meaningfully higher'.....
so maybe it is a case of ' Don’t believe the S&P rally hype ' but just for now. Such indicators like Treasury bonds, gold and real estate—nearly all up in the double-digits— you must realise that stocks are the worst-performing major asset class since last May, up less than one percent. So that is why we are a little cautious here.
In looking at the S&P total return index, its trajectory falls below the S&P 30-year bond futures total return index.
The total return of just being in the bond market versus the stock market, no result, and yet again, all the volatility, if you adjust for the risk, it's not parity at all.
Plus the fact we have VIX at all time lows, and mentioned that to our VIP members just 24 hours ago.
And when adjusted for inflation, we can attest to the fact that the S&P has still not taken out its March 2000 high, a record set during the tech bubble. Considering this was about 15 years ago this level is quite significant.
I would take a rocketship rally higher, and a meaningfully RALLY to start to compensate for the risk that's been associated with owning equities not only for the last 18 months, but for quite some time now.
Here is a chart of the S&P 500 with just 2 red days, and lower volume our analyts are starting to umm and ahhh here. Because due to that violent upwards move, and without it being back, and with gaps in the chart as well on the downside, something is fishy here it seems. [See the Chart below]
 |
| Don’t believe the S&P rally hype |
You may be in the camp that thinks, hold on, we are going up and that is the trajectory and we should rocket higher from here, to the moon. But that would not be a smart way to think, considering how volatile the market has been lately. The ups and downs has been enough for even the most steadies of hands type trader to get sea sick.....
WHAT IF YOU KNEW WHICH WAY THE MARKET WAS ABOUT TO MOVE BEFORE IT HAPPENED? CLICK HERE To Join Our VIP ELITE GROUP -- FREE!
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