Web Statistics The Sentiment Trader

Sunday, 8 September 2013

Why Bond Yields are Rising

Why Bond Yields are Rising ?

Many or our members are asking Why Bond Yields are Rising

Here is the chart.

Why Bond Yields are Rising
Why Bond Yields are Rising

It's simple! Bonds are long-term IOUs, and yields rise when the economy gains steam, reflecting the increased demand for loans. Higher yields are good for savers and for people, such as retirees, who use investment income to augment pensions and Social Security.

The drawback: Bond prices fall when rates rise, which hurts investors in bond mutual funds. For example, since the 10-year T-note's low yield of 1.4% in July 2012, the iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury ETF has fallen 7.9%, according to Standard & Poor's Capital IQ. The iShares Barclays 20-plus Year Treas Bond ETF has plunged 18.8%.

The 10-year T-note yield was at 2.99% in late-day trading Thursday but is still historically low, thanks in part to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. The Fed has been buying about $85 billion in mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries each month in an effort to keep rates low. Since the 10-year T-note's debut in 1962, its yield has averaged about 6.6%.

Nevertheless, rising interest rates can be a threat to both Wall Street and Main Street, but as you can see on the chart yields have been travelling nicely since MAY this year, and we would not be surprised to see higher prices soon.

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Saturday, 7 September 2013

SPX weekly chart update

SPX weekly chart update

Stocks capped a wildly volatile trading session flat as a pancake following the monthly government jobs report and amid ongoing jitters over Syria.

The syria crisis is certainly playing havoc with the market, but again, its just all rumors, no action has actually been taken yet. And Just between you and me I think OBAMA is fighting a losing battle there.... but we shall see.

The continuing debate over whether the Federal Reserve will announce a tapering at this month's meeting is another wild card.

I think investors will have a better idea of whether this week's WEAK Market bounce (the Dow has been up four straight days) has staying power when "real trading" resumes in the coming week.

Right now, it's going to be waiting for the Fed, the markets are a bit jumpy, however you can see we are still in a nice upwards channel. Above the bottom of the channel is bullish, but below is bearsish. The week coming will probably be a make or break, but the yo yo on this market continues.

SPX weekly chart update
SPX weekly chart update

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Friday, 6 September 2013

Bullish Percent

Bullish Percent

The Bullish Percent is giving a read that means the smart money is still taking profits, and it does not look the best. There still seems to be room to move on the downside, however we will see what happens in the coming weeks.

Bullish Percent
Bullish Percent



Realistically the market has been going sideways for a few weeks, annoying most investors, however we feel that the market will soon need to break this range very soon.


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