happy new year 2014

Happy new year 2014 TO ALL OUR readers.

happy new year 2014

We would like to take this opportunity to wish

you all a HAPPY & SAFE NEW YEARS for 2014 !!!!

happy newyear 2014

May all your investments in 2014 flourish and may all your dreams above and beyond come true as we pass into a brand new year. 

Our updates will RESUME on the 2nd JANUARY 2014. 

PLEASE NOTE......

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GOD BLESS! :-)

Happy Trading 

SENTIMENT TRADER

twitter value - twitter stock price today

twitter value - twitter stock price today

When I look at the twitter chart, I am not flabbergasted, I am more in awe that it seems the dot com boom of old back in the 90's seems to be repeating.

YES! if you can remember that dot com boom, the internet was growing at a rapid rate, and search engines were well established companies. However, and there is a however as soon as skyrocketing prices hit news and media headlines, the drunken romance with these stocks soon came to an abrupt end!

WHY?

Well, when people started realizing these companies, did not have real worth, and their business models were not only defunct, they did not have a real plan or income in the first place things spiraled down quickly and the whole entire market crashed over a space of a 2 year window. It was the hangover from the dot com boom, and it hit investors very hard.  

As you can see below TWITTER is now listed on the market, and with other social media stocks, now floating and listing on the US stock exchange, within the space of a few months, the price of twitter has gone from $45 per share to almost $75. Wow!, But I guess the real question here is how long until the drunken romance ends? How long until people realize twitter is just a business based on sending text to another user, that does not really probably want to read it. LOL

This thing has DOT COM 2.0 Written all over it I think! But still it does not mean that twitter prices can not go higher!

Round and round and round she goes. Where she stops, nobody know!

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dow chart update

dow chart update

Stocks post second weekly rise; Dow's win streak halted at six sessions

You can see just how well this market performed this year below on the dow weekly chart!

The Dow industrials are now not far from record highs, as Wall Street pondered the impact of increased borrowing costs on the economy.

Everyone is talking about Higher rates but that is not something to fear, I think. In this sort of environment, even though the fed have told us they are going to start tapering soon, If this economy can handle the rise in interest rates, then 2014 could be another good year for investors. Time will tell.

You can see the weekly chart below and the SANTA RALLY that we predicted many weeks ago did in fact come to fruition. NICE :-)  You can see that BEARS on the market have been absolutely pummeled in 2013.  What will happen in 2014? Well...... at the moment your guess is as good as mine, so we shall see. But this weekly chart below sure looks yummy.

dow chart update

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gold chart update

gold chart update

gold chart update

We have been keeping a closer eye on gold lately as gold has been hammered pretty badly in 2013 which is pretty obvious. The thing is you zoom back on gold, and you can see that longer term the damage is not only tiny, but insignificant. I think it would be even safe to say that if gold came down some more that would be ok, even to the 1100 area there is still no reason to panic. But from there, if there was a bounce, it might be pretty big bounce coming, if you look back on this chart.

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gold chart update

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nikkei chart update

nikkei chart update


The nikkei chart is very interesting right now. As you can see the nikkei chart we have what is called a diamond continuation pattern.

Now these patterns are not common, but normally these patterns hint to a move in the same direction as the trend before the continuation pattern, in this case up. So there is probably more upside coming in the nikkei. Time will tell.

nikkei chart update

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santa clause rally 2013

santa clause rally 2013

santa clause rally 2013 may have officially begun. Time will tell.

For those of you that do not know, the santa clause rally basically is a phenomenon each and every year, where by the market slowly drips up into the end of year as the smart money heads for the exits and the lower volume novices buy for the new year and end of year.

While the santa clause rally does not always occur each December, it is notoriously known to occur more often then not.

We shall see.....


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Fed to taper bond buying by $10 billion a month

Fed to taper bond buying by $10 billion a month

Fed to taper bond buying by $10 billion a month

Fed to taper bond buying by $10 billion a month, that was the message today and it sure shocked alot of investor, not because of the announcement, but because they thought the market would sell off on this news, but the market did the complete opposite. It skidded up higher by about 50 points. The S&P 500 hits record after Fed taper move today, and the news is still reaming across the globe.

Today the Asian Stocks Rise After Fed Begins Tapering US Stimulus

The Fed taper seen as positive for economy, bad omen for bonds which has already been suffering at the hands of this news, and a mixture of other things.

What Fed tapering means for you, is that right now, not much at all, the market is taking this as positive news as you can see above. This Fed's tapering announcement gives global certainty in a market, that all year was strong, but still uncertain about the future of this easy money that has been printed off and flooding the market since about 2009.


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graham dodd ratio chart

graham dodd ratio chart

The graham dodd ratio chart below is very interesting. If you have a look at this graham dodd ratio chart you can see the world indexes all overlapped on top of each other, depicting the ratios or which index is the most fair valued.

Australian shares are valued higher than Europe and the emerging markets but below the US. So in laymen's terms, most of these indexes right now sure do look overvalued some what, however the EUROPEAN market looks to be the most underrated of all of them.

graham dodd ratio chart

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Tussle on the market

Tussle on the market

A Tussle on the market is occuring

The SPX did have a nice day up, but the supply and demand at -23 is telling people to be cool and calm before the TAPER news in a few days. We have been in a massive to and fro on the market, as in a 30 pts range on the S&P and the market is sure having a hard time trying to get out of this region. When it does, we will probably see the bigger move this month. Until then.....

spx chart

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Dow jones transports update

Dow jones transports update

Dow jones transports update today, This is the leader of the market and we are currently sitting at 15755 and right on the 50 moving average line (BLUE)

As you can see the 50 EMA has been a line in the sand so to speak and will be for next week. Remember this coming WEDNESDAY we have the fed announcement which will be a big one, where by they will announce whether or not they will taper.

My guess is NO they will not TAPER, but time will tell, and we shall see what BS they have up their sleeve.

Ben has a few more months in office, and he has already blurted out in his previous speeches that Taper will not happen. He said if he tapers he could cause interest rates to skyrocket and collapse derivatives markets. At the moment he is not willing to let these events happen. Or so he says anyway. While I think these two events will happen in the next few years, Bernanke is sort of saying.....NO WAY NOT ON MY WATCH! So I really doubt there will be many big EARTH SHATTERING news next week. It will pretty much be the same old bullshit, just talked about on a different day! You know the drill.

For now the charts play much more importance anyway, and we are in no where mans land. Looking at the chart below you can see alot of traders are still ready and waiting for the FED'S announcement mid next week. Until then, happy trading.

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Nightmare on elm street

Nightmare on elm street

Nightmare on elm street for bears.

Take a look back at 2013 on the RUSSELL!

What an amazing chart right!? This channel has not been broken in over a year or so. Just goes to show how strong things have been on the market.

chart of RUSSELL 2000 in 2013

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investor sentiment - investor sentiment at the moment

investor sentiment - investor sentiment at the moment

investor sentiment at the moment is at all time extremes, now this does not mean the market is going to crash, and it does not mean the market CANT go higher from here, in fact we are still in a bull market but this is a chart that is doing the rounds again amongst blogs and forums.

The US government and their massive printing off of money and investor sentiment at extremes mean that one day, things are going to end in tragedy. Not tomorrow, not next week but eventually things will not be able to keep travelling along they way they are right now.

EXAMPLE: Think of a person who has a credit card, and that credit card debt is $10,000 so what this person does is sign up with other credit cards to pay the first one off, which means clearing one debt with another debt. It may resolve the problem quickly, but has not actually fixed the problem entirely.

That is what we are talking about here. Eventually QE injections of money into the market will not work, and it will end in tears for many. Again we are not saying this to make you panic, we are just telling you that fundamentally this is what the govt had planned before the very first round of quantitative easing, and so far their plan has not failed them!!

investor sentiment

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Call Me Crazy

Call Me Crazy

Call me crazy, but when I look at the nasdaq chart, (one of the market leaders) it does not look bearish at all. It seems to be STUCK inside a major upwards channel, and has not been broken for a while now. Maybe the big boys on wall street do not want to lose their bonuses, so they can take their mistress to the hamptons. LOL.

Anyway, you can see the nasdaq chart, or one of the leaders of the market is sifting through the sand with ease. Will we go higher, well your guess is as good as mine, but for now, slow and steady climbs on the market are the norm!

HAPPY TRADING!

Nasdaq chart

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spx monthly chart update

spx monthly chart update

Well after many of my members have been hounding me for this chart I finally decided  to give in and talk a little bit about the monthly spx chart. We have been going over this in our VIP MEMBERS SECTION here for months now, and nothing much has changed!

At the start of the year we hinted this year could be very good, but the strength of this market has even surprised me. We were laughed at, and had emails telling us we were crazy, but you can see just how strong this market is. Yes, since January 2013 we have gone up a few hundred points on the S&P and now we only have a few weeks till 2013 is over! WOW what a year.  ;-)))

While everyone out there kept crying about intrest rates, and the fed, claiming this is a top, even that we were going to crash this year (which seemed crazy anyway) we just sat back, and watched the charts. Now I will be the first to admit, no one knows what will happen next on the market, but this monthly SPX chart still does not look toppy or giving signs the market is about to crash from here. I could be wrong, that is just in my humble opinion of course.

Even the whole tapering thing did not hardly do any damage to the market. But we all know that eventually tapering will need to happen, and the fed have backed themselves into a corner on purpose and they probably are planning something bigger for 2014. Right now, they are the VIAGRA under this market, and printing money and sending us up higher is their current game, not tapering. So do not listen to the rumors and just trade.

The real kicker this year, was breaking the 1550 mark (see green arrow) early in the year, and now we are back up at the 1800 mark. Believe it or not, but the month of December (which we are now in) over the years has been a good performer as well, so even though the market still looks healthy here, I am more interested than anyone to see what we have in store for us in the next few weeks, leading into 2014, but so far the signs are pretty good I think. Time will tell.

Laugh if you will, but my overall consensus looking at the chart below, is hinting we are in a very very healthy bull market. Bears got decimated this year!...... heck, we only had 1 or two red months the whole year....WOW!

spx monthly chart

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GLOBAL CURRENCY RESET

GLOBAL CURRENCY RESET

Something a bit different today, and this video was sent in by one of my colleagues and good friends from a while back.

I this video below, two wall street gurus, sick of the Bullshit, are exposing the coming GLOBAL CURRENCY RESET coming, and how it will effect everyone, no matter where you live.

This is well worth a watch!! Enjoy.


 

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vix chart update

vix chart update

With the main indexes recovering as we close the vix did sink a bit but closed at 14.70

That means the VIX has now had 7 days of rallying, and when I had a look, this has not happened since about 2003. So something is up with the market, and we are overdue for a bit of selling up here.

It seems the news and media keep pounding on the table about TAPERING, but in my world, I never get caught up in news, because most of it is BS anyway. So lets forget about that mythical tale for now and see if the vix which is looking tired starts to rollover soon.

vix chart update

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when will the market crash again

when will the market crash again ?

Well to be honest no one really knows! Not you, not I and not even one of the best traders on wall street connected to the bigger guys who manipulate things. We talked about this a few months ago here on the sentiment trader blog.

There is panic right now, because people are starting to think the market is too high and they are swearing on their mothers grave that things are so  high, it cannot go any higher! Well, I seriously doubt that, and then there is THIS CHART BELOW.....

when will the market crash again

This is a NYSE margin debt chart people that is now circulating around the blogs, and its authors are saying it is not allowed to go higher? Really?  again its only blindsiding people asking when will the market crash again

SO WHAT IS THIS CHART ?

In laymans terms it cannot show when will the market crash again, like I said no one knows the date or time of that one.

WHAT THIS CHART SHOWS IS :  October 2013 NYSE margin debt stood at a new record high of $412.5b (up from $401.2b in September) and exceeded the prior high from April of $384.4b and net investor worth dropped to a record low. However, as BofAML notes, NYSE margin debt and the S&P 500 have +0.76 correlation using a 48-month (4-year) correlation as of October 2013. This is the highest correlation in our data history back to 1964. A positive correlation means that margin debt and the S&P 500 tend to move together; which as they helpfully note means - as long as the market rises, margin debt is not a risk.

So before you go and panic and think the market is about to crash here, you really need to find the true meaning of charts people are posting on forums and blogs around the place. This chart above is not the true representation of what is happening in the market right now, and only going to make people panic and do stupid things, and possibly lose them some money.


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spx update

spx update

While many out there are calling a top, you have to remember we are in the midst of a bull market. It would take a market crash or a heavy sell off to see the start of a bear market or a nice market top.

There are no catalysts out there right now to move this market, but that does not  mean there is NOT some sort of catalyst coming. Infact we are due for one, and the longer the govt keeps printing money the worse things will be for the dollar and the market when the shit hits the proverbial fan somewhere down the track. But for now the market is holding.

Right now the S&P is in a skinny upwards channel that has not been broken, as you can see on the chart below, since OCT the market has been doing quite nicely, and now leading into December the smart money will work its way out, and we do not expect too much volatility.

spx update

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BANK INDEX

BANK INDEX


The bank index has a gartley patten right now, and has been holding up quite well. The momentum has shifted to a more bullish stance and is still up near new highs.

December the smart money will slow down alot which means the volume will be lower than  normal, and dry up alot. This will obvious affect the price in the short term however this chart below is quite perky still, even if there is irrational bearishness amongst analysts right now.

Even back in January we warned this year could be a good year for the bulls, and if you look back to 11 or so months, you can see just how good of a run the banking index and banking stocks have had!

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SERVICE RESUME THIS WEEK

It has been a very vibrant and rewarding year this year. 

We enjoy posting updates, and we have moved office, but as noted our services will resume in the next 24 to 48 hours. 

For those asking about our VIP service, you can JOIN for only $1 here => CLICK HERE

VIP members get access to many advanced charts, functions and market alerts and other indicators that we believe keep you 2 steps ahead of other traders here there. 

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