Bond market sending warning signal to the Trump rally
"Bond market sending warning signal to the Trump rally"
in the news Bond market sending warning signal to the Trump rally? What this all about..... See below.
Sentiment Trader can see Three weeks ago the yield on the 10-year Treasury was above 2.60 percent with the Federal Reserve about to raise rates and various economic surveys indicating confidence surging under President Donald Trump.
But something curious has happened.
The 10-year yield has dropped, trading near 2.30 percent this week as "hard" economic data, such as weak auto sales on Monday, indicate the confidence in a Trump-led economy has yet to translate into a tangible increase in demand.
As the bond market signals worry, stocks have largely held their ground, with the Nasdaq composite index hitting a new high as recently as Monday.
History shows something has to give.
Theoretically, let's say the 10-year yield was to drop another 30 basis points (0.3 percent) to 2 percent in the next month. Using hedge fund analytics tool Kensho, we found there were 35 times in the last decade when the 10-year yield dropped 30 basis points in one month.
The S&P 500, on average, lost nearly 3 percent during those occasions, led by big losses in financials, materials and industrials.
This is quite interesting. Bond market sending warning signal to the Trump rally?
With the market near all time highs, and gone frozen, and with investors nervous about the TAX POLICIES FAILING, this is a very interesting time.
The 10-year yield has dropped, trading near 2.30 percent and will monitor this for our clients, it actually a blessing in disguise we think, and we will update more for our LOYAL members in tomorrows VIP ALERT HERE!
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